Causality: The Path Forking Problem

forkingIt seems to me that humans don’t assess cause and effect very well; we had to invent the scientific method as a way of teasing out which causes of a particular effect are the important ones. That’s a comforting illusion for us, but causality is not a chain of events and causes, it’s more like a lattice-work stretching backward in time to the Big Bang. In practical terms, it doesn’t make much sense for us to answer “Why did the chicken cross the road?” with “The Big Bang” even though it’s true: we search for something we can pin it on immediately.

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Argument Clinic: Calling People “Racist”

This is an emergency public service announcement from Argument Clinic!

Is this the right room for an argument?

Is this the right room for an argument?

I see a lot of discussion on various news sources as to whether or not so-and-so is a racist, or such and such. It is poor strategy to engage in such a discussion unless you plan to win it. To explain further… [Read more…]

Coal Country

Pennsylvania is hugely coal country. And, with the Marcellus Shale fracking, there has been a sudden influx of money that has been very welcome in most of the state. About a decade ago, neighbors were pitted against neighbors as carpetbaggers with energy exploration contracts came through, getting people to sign exploration rights with rights of first refusal. In economically depressed areas like Carbon County (a county named after coal, what do you think?) the money and the work were very welcome.

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The Hardcore of Yore – Dickey Chapelle

Trigger warning: war and death, death imagery

Dickey Chapelle died when I was a kid and the news of her death was how “war photographer” entered my mental landscape. When I was a kid and started getting interested in military history, I was mostly inclined toward the Napoleonic Wars because of the gorgeous uniforms and the amazing paintings by Meissonier and David (I spent a lot of time at the Musee Des Invalides…)

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So It Begins

Enroute to Vienna, connecting through Copenhagen airport on an SAS flight out of Washington, Dulles, I slept badly because of a the onset of a gout attack in my right ankle…

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