Right now, we are being treated to a fascinating mix of genius and antigenius, whipsawed between incredible stupidity and last-minute cancellations of the same – which is a form of genius. As Sun Tzu said, deception is the root of strategy – in which case just confusing the living fuck out of everybody has to be one of the fruit of the deception branch. There are so many things wrong, even with the mistakes being made, that the whole thing would make a great Monty Python skit, except the Pythons were trying to be funny.
From a strategic high-level view we must start with the nuclear weapons. Israel, which bootstrapped its nuclear weapons program by stealing 200kg of highly enriched uranium from a US supply in New Jersey in 1965 [gwu] had a secret production process, but never officially did a weapons test. Instead, they did a secret test, which also involved them proliferating to South Africa, detonating a device in 1979 [wik] in a manner that gave some plausible deniability. In a normal course of affairs, the US and its allies would be endlessly sanctioning and politically browbeating Israel, like they do Iran, except: special relationship. This thoroughly complete hypocrisy creates a problem with trying to establish any kind of strategic symmetry at all. Strategic geniuses tend to seek balance, because once you understand a situation well enough to establish a sensible balance, you can then exploit your brilliance by futzing around with the fine-tuning knobs. We didn’t do anything like that. So, it seems that Israel convinced our exceptionally stupid and brain damaged president that Iran was going to potentially have a nuclear weapon in 2 weeks and, by god, something must be done. Meanwhile, the Israelis have been claiming that the Persians will have nuclear weapons soon, since the Akkadian Empire first fired up its refinement cascade. They have been a few weeks from a nuclear weapon for an absurdly long time, which the Israelis know is absurd, because they have a great deal of awareness what a secret nuclear program entails.
It goes without saying that the war is being fought on false pretenses, which is almost always a strategic mistake, but what is really significant is that the Israelis have realized that they have cornered the US into the improbable situation that they no longer need to make up stories to drag the US into a war in the middle east – all they have to do is bomb someone or other, and the US will resume bombing Iran on cue. Especially terrifying, the dotard US president really wants to see some nuclear weapons go off, and is looking for a good excuse. This is not a strategic intention, it is an aesthetic one. We are dealing with barbarians. No, wait, we are the barbarians, dang it. But here’s the strategic analysis: if the US really believed Iran was 2 weeks from a nuclear weapon, now (a few months later) would be a bad time to be talking about invading the place with troops. Imagine how frustrated the Iranians would be if they had a prototype nuclear weapon sitting on Karg Island and the US was not cooperating by landing a shipload or two of marines there. Of course, strategy has failed and diplomacy has taken over, as it must – except our diplomats are only just past the point of calling the Iranians “poo poo heads” and really they want to invade Cuba, instead. Are you following this? If you are, congratulations, you are the sole human that does.
Here’s the strategic genius’ analysis of what the Iranians might do in a worst-case scenario: they might drag the war out for a long time. At the very least, until Trump is out of power, replaced by an ice-crystal cold AI mind… No, wait, that’s a mistake: I meant a spineless democrat of some stripe or other. So, suppose they never come to the bargaining table: they’re still at war with everyone in the entire middle east and now nobody can complain if they do anything. Surrogates? Sure. Drones? Sure. Ballistic Missiles? Yup. Enriching uranium: already doing that. Nuclear weapons? According to Israel, by mid August. Realistically, it might take them a year if they do a crash program. But, rather insanely, the US and Israel’s offensive actions against a treaty signatory nation pretty clearly abrogates the treaty so the Iranians are justified, when someone complains about their enriching Uranium: “so what?” The Iranians actually played along with various agreements under threat of being bombed and now the threat turns out to be mostly that the country that spends the most money on its military, is going to have to spend fucking more. They are defending themselves against the country that tried to bomb North Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and Syria into submission – and failed. Now, they have testosterone poisoned closet denizen Pete Hegseth threatening them. Their problem is remarkably similar to Ukraine’s: they want to bleed Russia to the nubbins without convincing them to use nuclear weapons. Not howling with laughter at Biggus Dickus Pete is a good start.
So, plucky little Iran has a right to defend itself. They should be doing a better job pushing that meme into the international consciousness. Perhaps some of you remember when the British Empire humiliated itself against a bunch of goat-herders and some pilots down in the Falklands? History whispered to Margaret Thatcher: “go ahead and show them if you’re really tough” and the Argentines showed them that Britain could no longer give orders to the world and expect them to be followed. Everyone in the world except MAGA nuts sees the US withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan as similar events: and that’s the real strategic problem. Iran has a lot of experience dealing with Abdul-come-lately empires and after watching Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s expecting to take some punches but it’s not afraid to take some punches. Meanwhile, the US has done one thing brilliantly: it has successfully lied to its people about how badly it is being damaged in the war. That is one trick the British really messed up during the Falklands war – the non-imperialist world was rooting for the plucky Argentines. So, Trump and Hegseth’s “Margaret Thatcher Moment” came and went, and Pete turned out to not be up to it. Of course he wasn’t. The attack on Iran shows every sign of being a Classic Imperial Blunder – wherein the imperial power snorts, “what can 10,000 Zulus do against a regiment of our infantry? Let’s GO!” The US military is oriented toward “force projection” – i.e.: global logistics, but that does not mean it is prepared for a long war.
Step back and look at two things: 1) The Strait of Hormuz and 2) The missile defense ammunition gap. Every single anybody who has ever thought about war with Iran takes into account that Iran can mine the Strait and screw up the global economy. I was wargaming that scenario in the 80s: usually it entails parking a massive force down there, taking some casualties, and suppressing everything Iran can throw at it. It’s a tough scenario. If you’re not familiar with Millenium Challenge 2002 [wik], it was basically a massive wargame about a US attack against … Iran. Objective #1 was to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The commander of the opposing forces knew that, and made the whole region a trap and shattered the attacking force so badly that the DoD’s wargame-runners declared it a mistake and re-started the scenario after hustling the red team commander out of the facility. You can be sure Hegseth studied that scenario. You can also be sure Hegseth read about the British attempt in 1916 to secure the oilfields in Iraq with an overland infantry force, which was slowly blown to pieces [wc] in a battle that would have made “Chinese” Gordon proud. What anyone watching the Iran debacle has doubtless noticed is a certain – strategic aloofness – regarding actual mission parameters. What appears to have happened is that Israel convinced the US that just bombing them a bit would make them take things more seriously and come crawling to the table. Just like sending a frigate or two down to the Falklands subdued the Argentines, or playing “Gerryowen” by the 7th Cavalry as they marched onto the Greasy Grass. This is all the stuff of strategic genius being absent from the situation. You could practically quote Paul Atreides in Dune: “The power to destroy something is also the power to control it.” Netanyahu, who supposedly was in the situation room when this shambles was “planned” was at least experienced enough to know it wasn’t going to work, which is also a rather counter-intuitive point.
The missile defense ammunition gap is another mind-boggling bit on non-genius. Literally, the US has been implementing exactly the same counter-strategy with Ukraine against Russia, and it’s working great. I’m not saying Ukraine is having a good time of it, but they are beating Russia and nobody (possibly including Ukraine) expected that.
Now, let’s talk about what Iran might do. I doubt that they will do any of these things because throughout all of this, Iran has been careful not to escalate the situation ridiculously. It’s the old story of boiling the frog slowly (which is not true) and the Ukrainians have done that with Russia: they slowly made sure that they could defeat and deplete Russian air defenses and slowly crept their fire back to Moscow. At the beginning of the war everyone (but me, apparently) expected Russia to nuke Ukraine if they started pasting Moscow, so they slowly and carefully built it up into a pasting and constantly were ready to scale back if it looked like the Russians were prepared to resume committing atrocities. Most americans have not figured this out, apparently, but that’s exactly what Iran is doing: they have demonstrated that they have ballistic reentry vehicles with dummies and MIRVs. It does not take a strategic genius to read the message on those MIRVs: “if these were nuclear boy you’d be fucked.” Here’s a bit of irony: the Israelis are demonstrating conclusively that they know Iran hasn’t got an advanced nuclear program, because they would have started freaking out as soon as the MIRVs were demonstrated to be real enough to work, and they sailed right through Israeli defenses. So, actually, step one in a strategic response has already happened.* Step two has also been taken: Iran launched an intercontinental-capable ballistic missile that impacted harmlessly in Siberia, with permission from Putin. That’s about 3,000 miles. That puts all of England in range. Or, more specifically RAF Fairford or US Diego Garcia. Iran has been pretty good about not trying to cause civilian slaughter on a wide scale, by mostly trying to hit military targets, but – since US bombers are flying out to bomb them from those two airfields, they would be pretty juicy targets. They appear to be getting real-time satellite data from China and/or Russia, so it would actually be plausible for them to launch a strike if they saw a few B-1 bombers readying up.
[As an aside, one really interesting thing that US has done as a matter of long-standing policy, is to keep the B-2 bombers stationed in the continental US. In spite of the horrific toll it must take on the crews, they don’t want them exposed during take-off or landing. The rest is obvious.]
These things are all obvious, given the example Ukraine is offering anyone who is listening. The third step would be to do like the Ukrainians did with the stealthy trucks carrying drones past the halfway point – a military commando-style raid would work quite well. Naturally, since the US blasted the residences of the Iranian leadership, killing the leader and several other highly placed politicians, the Iranians would be completely justified in sneaking a boatload of drones to someplace where they could launch at Mar a Lago. One must also assume that the strategic geniuses among the Iranians would be offering specifications for drone-building to Cuba.
Meanwhile, since complying with the NPT and various weapons accords was not enough to prevent a first strike from Israel and the US, it is ridiculous to expect Iran to comply with anything or trust any US treaties. What’s the option: nose to the grindstone on the nuclear program. Meanwhile, build out defenses around the program bases in case someone is stupid enough to attempt an attack with special forces. I would reach out to North Korea, just to make people’s heads explode when they put 2+2 together – remember, North Korea and Iran are no longer under the NPT. In principle the only thing keeping Kim from giving the Iranians assistance or even a turnkey weapon is the genocidal nature of US foreign policy. I would offer the Cubans a formal military alliance 24 hours after doing a very public nuclear test. I would also ask the Russians to make any declarations they have in mind regarding the Russian/Cuban defense pact of 2025: the US is very fond of threatening that all of NATO will pile in if any members are attacked, but that can go multiple directions.
Unfortunately for the world, all of the viable paths for any nation that does not want to be thrown up against the wall by the US or its client states is to develop nuclear weapons, or defense treaties with countries that seem like they would actually step in to defend them. Ironically, we may see a mutual defense alliance materialize that amounts to what Bush called “The Axis of Evil.” Except we’re the baddies.
* This is an example of the ancient technique of predicting the future by pointing at the present and saying “see?!”
Longstanding policy? So we can expect Kegsbreath to order B2s to be stationed in the Middle East next week then.
.
I had no idea that Chinese Gordon was a real person! Ha! I have only known him as the protagonist of Metzger’s Dog by Thomas Perry. Does Dr. Henry Metzger ring any similar historical bells? (all I can find is an immunologist who died a few years ago, long after the novel was written)
I’m assuming “Hegseth” is a brain fart here, as I strongly suspect the only thing’s he’s ever seriously studied are his own reflection in a mirror and the bottom of a whiskey glass.
“That puts all of England in range.” … and Scotland
https://www.thenational.scot/news/26402717.andy-burnham-urged-ban-us-forces-scottish-airports/
https://distancefromequator.com/location/glasgow/tabriz
Iran wants to negotiate, they don’t want to fight an extended bleeding war. Or at least they did want to negotiate, they might have given up serious consideration at this point. They have a rational view of how they can win but also understand the cost of fighting an extended war that way. There are multiple problems with doing this. Trump doesn’t want to negotiate, he wants Iran to surrender. Trump doesn’t understand how to negotiate a diplomatic treaty, he thinks in terms of business deals where you can work out the details after things are signed. Add to that Trump keeps violating the terms of the truce because he can’t remember what he agreed to yesterday.
I keep thinking there is some grounds for a treaty if there was a clever negotiator. The terms would be some reasonable balance in the sea and give each side free right to insult the other party in their own national press without it being taken seriously. That would solve some of the problem because both sides like to insult/threaten the other in their own press for political reasons and the other side gets offended.
Cuba is probably smart enough to want to stay out of this conflict. They know they are on Trump’s target list but they are also a weak island within easy range of the US at this point. Their best option is to let Iran do the bleeding and hope they get forgotten.
re JM@4:
If there was anyone in The Orange Turd’s first administration who was clever, they wouldn’t have let him withdraw from the JCPOA. And his second administration is full of absolutely stupid people who don’t have a clue about anything.
To the best of my knowledge, Trump has never honoured an agreement in his life. It’s not some new thing caused by his dementia. He cheats everyone, and always has.
I think the Iranians are well aware that any agreement with Trump is worth less than used toilet paper. They’ll play the game of pretending to negotiate in order to buy themselves some breathing room when they need it, but I think they intend to bleed the US presence in the region dry. Remember, the current Iranian leadership grew up during the Iran – Iraq War, which was an absolutely horrific affair involving huge numbers of casualties. They reckon they can take it.
While the details are complex the situation is simple.
There is a frail old man in his declining years who is living his dream of being an internet troll. Unfortunately he occasionally realizes that he’s somehow become the president of the United States. But as scary as I’m sure that is for him, he’s got a whole Make-A-Wish Foundation’s worth of sycophants, grifters, and corrupt weirdos burying him in gold star stickers and participation awards every time they notice he’s still breathing.
On the other side we have an absurdist comedy skit. They know they’re going to win and they know it’s obvious to everyone that this is the case. Except for their foe, who would very much like to pretend that just about anything else is happening. This wouldn’t be a problem except that continuing is quite expensive for both sides. And this is where the comedy skit comes in. This side really would like to come to an agreement. “You’re not really stupid enough to keep doing this, are you?” Unfortunately for them the answer they’re looking for is “no” but what they keep getting instead is an enthusiastically petulant “Yes! Look, I have all these participation trophies and gold star stickers! They must mean something!”
Meanwhile on the sidelines we have Inciting Third Party meeting at everyone and not yet realizing the price they’ll have to pay for their antics. Because even if they get away with doing whatever they want and only getting a light scolding like usual, the protection they’ve been hiding behind is much reduced.
And that’s how I see it. You might read this and think it’s black humor since people have died. I reject that characterization, this is just the reality of the situation. The black humor was in letting ANY of these bozos anywhere near power to begin with. Anyone who can’t see that is either delusional or not paying attention which makes their opinions worthless.
Ridana@#1:
I have only known him as the protagonist of Metzger’s Dog by Thomas Perry
That was one heck of a funny weird book.
Dunc@#2:
I’m assuming “Hegseth” is a brain fart here, as I strongly suspect the only thing’s he’s ever seriously studied are his own reflection in a mirror and the bottom of a whiskey glass
I was trying to be sarcastic. Personally I doubt most Trumpers can even read.
lanir@#7:
There is a frail old man in his declining years who is living his dream of being an internet troll
He is the greatest troll, ever. He started off as a random jerk throwing turdballs at Barack Obama’s back during his “birther” period, but he kept increasing his trolling power until he took over the former platform known as “twitter” and then the platform formerly known as “United States.” His meteoric rise has been a suprise to everyone with sense or education, but here we are, in this time-line, stuck.
@Marcus: I still wonder why Republicans went his way during his larval birther phase. Apparently they didn’t realize he was saying they were all dumb enough to lose a race to someone who couldn’t even be in it. I guess that’s like losing to him at golf when he just imagined the scores he got without ever setting foot on the course. The latter seems to have actually happened.
Since these people seem incapable of doing anything remotely competent the next interesting thing in this space is likely to be what kind of swing we have in the other direction and whether the voters will bother to distinguish between people with some name recognition who aren’t Trump-adjacent and people with ideas that make sense. Even if they’re bad ideas.
Also, thanks for fixing the missing slash on my italics tag.
A useful article on one of the key strategic elements, namely the rate of expenditure of interceptors: The Math Behind The U.S. Defeat in Iran.
I’ve been saying that the US had already lost this stupid war pretty much from day one, but I hadn’t realised just how badly. If they don’t see some kind of sense soon, it’s not just going to upend the US position in the Middle East, it’s going to end it globally. I dunno, maybe you can try turning some Cybertrucks into tacticals so you can maintain some kind of position in sub-Saharan African or something…
Major oil companies reap massive profits as US and Iran fighting drives energy prices higher
Unintended consequences, or… strategy?
It’s intriguing how people can look at what appear to be the same set of facts and come to bafflingly different conclusions, to the point that it’s sometimes hard to believe they even live in the same world. For instance:
I might also add, on top of “shit, my blockquote is borked”, that Galtieri also gave us Thatcher for the rest of the 80s. She was NOT popular in early spring ’82. It is possible, indeed more than conceivable, that Michael Foot – the worst Labour leader until Jeremy Corbyn – could still have fumbled it and somehow lost the 1983 general election, but it would have been a much narrower and possibly hollow victory, the miners’ strike might have gone differently and the deindustrialisation and managed decline this country has suffered since may have been watered down, if not completely avoided.
But Galtieri handed Thatcher the chance to look tough, and she took it and ran with it, and with some justification the British public rallied round against an obvious aggressor, and paid her back at the ballot box the next year with a thumping victory that paved the way for the destruction of the trade unions, City deregulation and poll tax and their associated riots that followed. I’d contend that he did far more actual damage to the UK than he did to Falklands – thanks, Leopoldo, you stupid fuck.
The stupid thing is, in retrospect, if the Argies had managed to keep it in their pants for just another couple of years, and Foot HAD won the election in ’83 or ’84 (assuming he didn’t author “the longest suicide note in history” – Google it if you don’t know), I’m going to stick my neck out and say they’d have not faced ANY military repercussions. They’d have been facing down a man who had committed to giving up his country’s “independent” nuclear deterrent unilaterally – hardly the sort of leader who’d get the SAS on the phone the minute boats arrived in Port Stanley. And even if Thatcher had still been in power, without the massive boost she got from winning the war her majority and mandate would almost certainly have been at least seriously diluted if not completely eliminated, and the appetite for spending money and lives to save 1,700 sheep farmers would have been considerably reduced for a minority or coalition government.
One more thing – as I previously noted, the Argentinians have been moaning on and on about losing the war on their doorstep for over forty years. At no point in that time has a single politician made the calculation that 1982 was pretty much the last year the UK would have been militarily capable of putting together that task force and achieving that objective.
Consider: UK forces manpower in 1982 broke down like this:
Army: 165,682
Navy (incl. Marines): 74,041
Air Force: 91,850
Today’s numbers are:
Army: 74,370
Navy (incl. Marines): 32,520
Air Force: 31,080
In total, we’ve gone from 331,573 to 137,970. That’s TOTAL, not deployable – less than 42% of the size it was when we struggled to put together a task force and had to drag the QE2, the Canberra and the Atlantic Conveyor – civilian ships – into the fray just to get enough stuff there.
In 1982, the Navy (not including the Fleet Auxiliary) had 131 vessels. Today that number is 62.
In short, the UK’s ability to project force was teetering in 1982, and it’s been completely hollowed out since.
Odd then that if the islands were so fucking important to the Argentinians that they never stop fucking banging on about them that they haven’t at any point in the last 44 years bothered trying again.