Does this look like we’re done with the outbreak?
One thing that has been bothering me has been the shortage of animated renderings of the pandemic. I assume because they’d be too depressing. So, I searched around and found a data-set that had a time scrubber, then screengrabbed each frame and loaded them into photoshop.
What this makes me think is “wow, they sure had a long time in which the outbreak was relatively minor!” In fact most of the animation is taken up with a few small dots in Oregon, California, Texas, and New York. That would have been the time for the CDC and government to leap into action and quash it. Not try to stop more cases from coming into the country, because it was already here, but to start putting processes in place to identify it, do contact-tracing, and isolate potentially sick people. Like they did in South Korea and not in Northern Italy or the US.
The methodology here is dodgy – I don’t have a way of knowing current infection rate, i.e.: how many sick people are in New York right now? It could be dwindling away, but the data – since this is cumulative – would not show that.
My guess is that the reason people aren’t producing animations is because they look like every scary movie pandemic-outbreak rendering, ever. If you look on google image search for “pandemic outbreak animation” you won’t find much – a reference to the game “Plague, Inc.” and a ton of 3D models of coronaviruses.
From the animation, it looks to me like we’re in the early 1/3 of an outbreak that is eventually going to cover the entire country. Thanks,