“Drain That Swamp”

I believe it was over at Mano’s that I hypothesized that Trump would stop appearing in New York soon, because he wouldn’t want to get perp-walked. Unfortunately I make so many snarky comments all over the place, I can’t find it or I could prop up my credentials as a psychic with it.

I, for one, would love to see a standoff between NYPD and Secret Service. It’s a pretty mental picture isn’t it? I’m picturing that scene in Reservoir Dogs where everyone is pointing a gun at everyone else and if someone even hiccups it all goes pear-shaped.

Trump’s move to Florida is almost certainly not about the taxes that Trump avoids paying. For one thing, real estate (which is where most of this alleged wealth is tied up) taxes mostly hit when you buy or sell – perhaps this telegraphs that he’s going to sell a hotel. But I think it’s more likely that he’s aware that he’s going to be too hot for New York, and it’s going to be soon.

But the real issue is climate change; specifically sea level rise. It turns out that humanity is blowing past all of the controls we put on ourselves. And it’s looking as though the ice melt is coming in at the high end of the model. [dk] Have you noticed that scientists have been using the phrase “worse than we imagined” a lot lately? Use of that phrase has become, itself, worse than we imagined.

Human: “Really I will stop eating cheeseburgers as soon as I clear my plate!”
Reality: “But you’re at an all you can eat cheeseburger bar.”
Human: “Coincidence.”

Prior studies that estimated the degree of global sea level rise based on current rates of man-made greenhouse gas emissions all suffered from a simple but crucial methodological error, according to a new study published in the open-access journal Nature Communications on Oct. 29.

The error was in estimating the impact of sea rise based primarily on 3-D satellite imagery from NASA, which led scientists to erroneously establish “the planet’s upper surfaces – such as treetops and tall buildings,” as ground level. This, as New York magazine’s Intelligencer summarizes, was the elevation data that scientists generally relied on when estimating the degree of incursion that rising seas would represent. Scientists Scott A. Kulp and Benjamin H. Strauss, in affiliation with Princeton University and the organization Climate Central, recently discovered and corrected for this error and, with the assistance of artificial intelligence technology, were able to correct prior estimates.

When extrapolated to show the effect of sea rise on human populations, the data now indicate “that many of the world’s coastlines are far lower than has been generally known.” This means that “sea level rise could affect hundreds of millions of more people in the coming decades” than was already feared.

That is a good example of the kind of errors you can get from extrapolative models. You can make a small simplifying assumption and it can throw off later data built on that assumption. In this case, not only are the thermal models trending toward humanity reaching its goal of melting all the ice on the planet, but sea levels are not right either; it’s a negative synergy. Not only is the ground lower, the water will be higher.

My advice is don’t spend too much gold leaf on the place. The algae (there won’t be any fish) won’t give a shit.


  1. brucegee1962 says

    Indeed, this is the main reason I hope nobody assassinates the orange one: I hope he lives long enough to see his beloved resort slowly sink under a big flood of Chinese Hoax, so we can watch him struggle and fail to find someone else to blame it on besides himself.

  2. voyager says

    Trump will no doubt buy a cruise ship and host expensive diving parties to see the underwater luxury hotel.

  3. StonedRanger says

    Cruise ships? Diving parties? How pedestrian. Its going to be submarines of course. Big glass ones, the best in the whole world. Pass the canned air please.

  4. says

    Is it possible that Trump is actually in league with the Deep Ones? In an effort to submerge the world, he’s making sure that the US doesn’t follow the climate accords and also supports Russia, to expand their gas exports.

    In a century, the civilizations of man will be sufficiently crippled that no reasonable defense can be made when They rise from the depths. As the oceans rise, the front will move closer to home. Ever closer; until all is covered by the still mirror of the waters, reflecting only the empty sky.

  5. bryanfeir says

    @Andrew Molitor:
    You were being sarcastic, of course, but as has been discussed before… a wall doesn’t work. Miami, at the very least, is largely on top of porous limestone. Water will just soak through the ground and come up in the middle.

    So, yeah, the Mexican water will tunnel under THAT wall, too.

  6. Ketil Tveiten says

    Re: “worse than we thought”, I tend to preface every mention of new climate research with a reminder that the Fundamental Fact of Climate Science is “whenever we learn something new about global warming, it’s that it’s going to be worse than we thought it was going to be”.

  7. jrkrideau says

    @ 9 John Morales

    Sorry John but I don’t see your point. The Australian Height Datum is defining the sea level. I don’t see how it’s distinguishing between a treetop and the solid ground somewhere around Canberra.

  8. jrkrideau says

    @ 7 Dangerousbeans
    Oh well, I can’t afford beach front property anyway .

    You may well be living on future beachfront property. I live at roughly 80 metres above sea level. I am seeing some waterfront good cottage and resort spots locally if I get in early.

  9. lochaber says

    I’ve no idea on the merit of any of these, but I’ve run into idle speculation that this could be because he plans on dumping Pence for VP in 2020, and running with someone else (possibly his daughter?), or that it’s in preparation for loosing a lawsuit.

    The bit about VP I ran across was some people discussing whether or not the VP and pres can be from the same state. It sounded debatable, and considering his disdain for clear and un-nuanced rules and regulations, I’m somewhat doubtful he even know about this one, let alone care enough about it to change residence.

    The lawsuit bit was referencing the OJ Simpson trial, supposedly in FL, your residence (any property?) is protected from seizure to pay lawsuits or something. I’m not sure if you have to be an official resident for that to apply, or just be a landowner in FL. Again, I’m somewhat skeptical, because I don’t think his arrogance and narcissism can contemplate the idea of him loosing a suit in such a manner, let alone planning for a loss.

    As to the NYPD vs Secret Service, I’ve also heard speculation that the Secret Service serves the office, and not the individual, and I can’t imagine the agents actually like him. They have had to work overtime without pay, pay for their own golf carts, and pay for rooms in his stupid building, maybe the agents on the ground don’t care, but that’s got to rankle some of the admin folks a bit higher up. Also, NYPD seems to be full of authoritarian MAGAts, so I could see some sort of bizarre reversal where the Secret Service go to march him out of his gaudy-ass hotel, and a rogue contingent of NYPD officers block of the streets and try to force a standoff with them.

    The residents of NYC, however, seem to generally hate him, and I believe they have hated him for decades. If anything, I suspect this would be more to assuage his ego, placing him in a geographic area full of his buffoon supporters, although I don’t think he needs an official residence change for that.

    Maybe he thinks it will somehow invalidate the NY AG court cases against him? that strikes me as the stupid sort of thing he would think is “5-D chess”

  10. John Morales says

    jrkrideau @11, Australia is extensively topographically mapped, and heights are referred relative to that datum, including built-up areas.

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