I’m baffled by all the wishful thinking around Michael Cohen’s testimony. Trump already made it clear that he believed/knew the Russians were going after people’s emails: he blurted it into the microphone, “Russia, if you’re listening…”
It sounds like the big reveal from Cohen will be that Trump, in fact, knew what was going on – just like he rather obviously appeared to from the beginning. What else are we supposed to discover, that Trump’s a liar? A racist? An asshole? Trump has already demonstrated that his base will cheer for him even if he runs over a little old lady in broad daylight. I won’t use the “shoot someone” metaphor because Trump doesn’t have the guts to shoot anyone; he’s more the “put polonium in your tea” sort of coward.
Cohen’s testimony is unlikely to add anything that we don’t already know about, and which Trump’s base have not already decided is OK. Never mind that he’s a pustule of corruption, a fraud, a tax cheat, and he takes election financing rules with a grain of salt. If he were a congressman who had done all this, the FBI would have already perp-walked him out of his office and into a plea deal.
I’m also disappointed in the people who seem to be hanging on to some great big hope that Mueller is going to reveal something. Mueller’s investigation has, basically, already published what it’s found: that Trump has surrounded himself with some very corrupt sleazebags. We can effortlessly conclude that Trump is a very corrupt sleazebag, too, but the New York Times‘ piece on how daddy Trump and the kids structured a massive tax-dodge – that did nothing. It practically sank without a trace. Al Capone went to prison for less sleazy tax-dodging than the Trumps; if the FBI hasn’t already hauled him out of the oval office in handcuffs, they never are going to. Richard Nixon wouldn’t want to be seen hanging out with this guy. If he hasn’t resigned now, he’s not ever going to.
The main battle will be to make him a one-term president. That won’t be done by pointing out how corrupt his friends are, or how useless his nepotistic frog-spawn are: it’s going to be by offering an alternative vision of leadership that is competent and effective. Trump will lie himself further into a hole. In the meantime, Michael Cohen’s testimony doesn’t sound like a “bombshell” to me, it sounds more like, “look what he got away with, suckers!”
I’m not sure what to expect. It does seem that anything that threatens Trump too directly is being submerged, possibly to prevent him from blowing things up too soon. For example, the Trump Tower meeting is now public knowledge, but Trump, Jr. has not been indicted for that, because that might trigger a pardon attempt. So perhaps there is some accummulation of things that implicate Trump directly that are being held under wraps until the big finale.
On the other hand, “justice delayed is justice denied”. By that rubric, the Mueller investigation has denied justice for over 1.5 years. If they have impeachment-quality evidence, they ought to put it in the hands of Congress, whose job impeachment is.
Impeachment is a political process, not a legal one. Nixon had the full backing of Republicans until they saw his popularity drop among Republican voters. In contrast, Hilary Clinton’s email server was a fairly minor gaff yet it formed a strong narrative that took hold in voter’s minds.
What we’re looking for here isn’t evidence, but a good story. Whether that story gets through to an entrenched 35-45% of the American public is the main problem, of course, but Cohen has laid down some excellent building blocks for its construction.
It puzzles me how we’re all supposed to be on the edge of our seats as a guy who lied during testimony is now supposed to give testimony again. That sounds reliable. Between Trump’s immunity to scandal and his henchman’s self-serving lies I see absolutely nothing to be excited about. There are no expectations for the future, for better or worse. Okay, that last sentence was a lie. Half-lie.
I am stunned by the republicans’ highly stupid response: “Cohen is a felon convicted of lying to protect the president! How do we know he’s not making all this up?”
Well, his story is being corroborated. But the whole point is that he’s contradicting what he said before. Which means he’s not lying now. The republicans hold their base in such contempt that this is the quality of disinformation they are bringing. It’s not quite “the dog made structured payments to Stormy Daniels!” But it’s close. There will be financial records of those transactions (which were fraudulent “structuring” of payments)
Hey, it’s better than questioning why, if Cohen claims to have boxes of evidence, he hasn’t come forward with them. Or proving Trump isn’t racist by bringing one of his black employees to the hearing.
Republicans have no defense of Trump, so they have no recourse but to trash Cohen.
If you were stunned before, you might want to sit down for this.
It makes the “Cohen is a lying felon!” and “he might profit from a book someday” lines look genius, IMHO.
It gets worse! Via CNN’s LiveBlog:
A high-ranking Dem is invoking the “he has a black friend” trope to defuse the tension caused by Meadows being called out for using the “he has a black friend” trope. Words fail me.
Marcus wrote:
I’m a little more optimistic than that. It remains to be seen how long the Republicans are willing to go along with defending Trump. A major part of finding this out is through set-piece spectacles such as today. Going in, we largely know what is going to happen, but we do need it to happen, if only to be able to say what happened. Some new things did come to light as a result of today, as well as some clear follow-up lines of investigation.
How this plays out depends on public opinion and how Republicans respond. My assumption is that it will change against them, but I’m unsure as to the rate. Currently, I’m more inclined to think that there will be a serious primary challenger to Trump next year. But if public opinion changes quicker to prompt enough Republicans change their minds, impeachment late this year is still a distinct possibility. I see this as a “tactical” move that would give the Republican party enough time to unite behind their replacement candidate (I think Pence would serve out the rest of Trump’s term, but not stand for election.).
If there is something to learn from today and the situation in general, it is to reinforce that Republicans are completely craven and will do anything to retain power, up to and including ditching a President in the hope of salvaging the next election. The interesting question of the exact method remains to be determined – there is after all a precedent.
Sunday Afternoon @#8:
The interesting question of the exact method remains to be determined – there is after all a precedent
“Today you’re going to tour Historic Dealy Plaza in an open-topped golf cart…”
@Marcus:
Ha! Well played sir!
Yeah, I’m with Marcus on this – the only people who give a shit about any of this weren’t Trump supporters anyway, and continuing to point out what everybody who gives a shit already knows isn’t going to get anybody anywhere. His supporters are just going to get even more entrenched.
Exactly.
Well, I’m glad I restricted myself to reading the cliffnotes in the news this morning. “Self-serving” was just about right. Strictly speaking, some of the bullshit quotes given – to the general tenor of “I’m a good guy and he made me do it” – should really have stopped the show then and there. But since it was a show and everyone already knew what to expect … oh, well. Going through the motions.
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That’s standard democratic election strategy, isn’t it? Bold visions and a real alternative to the Republican’s steady march to right-wing fanatics’ corner. It’s one of the few (US-)political nuances I picked up on reading FTB…
@ 4 Marcus
But the whole point is that he’s contradicting what he said before. Which means he’s not lying now.
Not necessarily. He may be working on a new set of lies. Probably not, at least in the overal testimony but Trump’s people seem to lie reflexively even when they would better off not.
@ 5 Hj Hornbeck
Re Cohen’s boxes of evidence. I cannot remember the source so this may not be trustworthy but I read recently that Mueller et al. had examined and returned the boxes.
I don’t know how House committees work but I would have thought they could have subpeonad the boxes if they had wanted to.