This is just breaking, so nobody really knows what’s going on, but:
Apparently a fake letter was sent to the government of Kuwait informing them that US troops were leaving within 3 days. The letter was originally reported as news on Reuters, and caused some brief stir. [usn]
This sort of thing is a stressor to add atop the normal stress of incompetence that the US DoD and State Department must deal with every day.
Reginald Selkirk says
Meanwhile, rumors have begun that the airliner that went down in Iran was taken down by a missile. If the government of Iran refuses to let foreign investigators and the American manufacturer (Boeing) in on the investigation, rumors will persist.
Marcus Ranum says
It sounds like that did happen; missile parts have been found and apparently US satellites recorded two flashes. It may be another “stupid people command anti-air battery” scenario. Remember – the Iranians would be on the edge of their seats expecting F-35s inbound.
Andrew Molitor says
I eagerly await the awarding of medals to our brave warfighters for accidentally shooting down another airliner.
Marcus Ranum says
@Andrew Molitor it sounds like the Iranians fucked up.
Roj Blake says
Sounds like the “Fog of War” and it will be some time, if ever, before we know the truth.
Reginald, it is the responsibility of the nation in which an air crash happens to lead the investigation, along with the nation under whose flag the airline flew. Others may be invited, and Iran has already called on Boeing for assistance. I doubt the Iranians will be happy with the Black Box going to the US, when GB, France and Germany are all capable of analysing the data.
But remember ONE THING – these people are probably dead because of the actions of a rogue US POTUS and a Congress that will not lift a finger to rein in his worst impulses. People have died because of an impulsive act by a criminal nation.
Let me see if I have this right.
Iranians fucked up
A civilian plane (a bloody big 737 at that) on a scheduled flight leaving a busy international civilian airport about 500 km from the reported military launch site at Kermanshah is supposedly shot down by Iranian air-defence. This is as it is leaving an airport that has perhaps 300 flights a day.
Tehran would not have anything like radar to detect hostile aircraft. The Iranians would only have silly, inexperienced, air-defence teams defending the capital. Maybe no one told them there was an international airport in the area?
Without the example of the USS Vincennes, it is hard to imagine such a level of incompetence. And even the Vincennes was not THAT incompetent. Criminally incompetent but not that incompetent.
Alternative scenario (also a bit crazy), the USA having received a late warning of the missile attack on Iraqi bases activates a Mojahedin-e Khalq terrorist cell with a MANPAD and tells them to shoot down something. Nobody cares what. Given the US record over the last 30 or 40 years this is not as unreasonable as the Iranians shooting down the plane.
@ 1 Reginald Selkirk
If the government of Iran refuses to let foreign investigators and the American manufacturer (Boeing) in on the investigation
Only total idiots would let “American manufacturer (Boeing) in on the investigation”. Americans lie and Boeing is basically an American gov’t appendage. I do not know who has the expertise to investigate here but perhaps the EU and/or China? India? Maybe the Russians? Perhaps a consortium?
If I were Iran, I would never let an American near the boxes.
John Morales says
… and Iran
Iran so far away …
John Morales says
PS this seems to me to be a relevant datum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752#Passengers_and_crew
Airbus for expertise?
@jrkrideau why do you think the USS Vincennes was incompetent? That was on purpose. At that moment Iran was almost winning the Iran-Iraq war and the USS Vincennes sent a very strong and clear message. And the war ended a couple of months later.
I wouldn’t be too surprised if the CIA installed a backdoor on the 737 and brought it down. And before anyone says anything let me be clear, the most probable cause of the crash is an Iranian anti-aircraft missile.
Loots like I may have been mistaken about the Iranian air defences.