I’m sure you’ve seen a variety of reports and opinions about Taiwan’s situation with China compared to Ukraine’s with Russia, so here’s one more (before I give mine) from the Central News Agency using google translate:
Indian expert: The situation in Russia and Ukraine affects the Taiwan Strait and China will not take the opportunity to invade Taiwan
Two experts on China from India believe that although the Ukrainian crisis may indeed affect the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing should still prefer to wait and see changes at this stage and will not rashly invade Taiwan.
[. . .]
Citing history, Vijay Kranti said China encouraged North Korea to start the Korean War in 1950, while Beijing seized Tibet while Washington was busy supporting ally South Korea. When asked whether Taiwan or Ukraine is more important from the perspective of U.S. strategic considerations? Kranti said that, personally, it is likely Ukraine, because all US allies are involved in the Ukraine crisis, and the US anti-Russian mentality has not been eliminated.
[. . .]
On the other hand, Gaurie Dwivedi, a visiting scholar at the United Service Institution of India, a think tank, told the Central News Agency that while China may see the Ukraine crisis as a similar template for encroaching on Taiwan, it does not escalate provocation to Taiwan. Dwivedi, author of Blinkers Off, How Will The World Counter China, believes that the current situation is turbulent and unpredictable, and if China takes relevant actions, it will trigger a strong response from the United States, so “China should wait and see what happens at this stage.”
I doubt things are going to change for at least the next two years. Some things about Ukraine and Taiwan are undoubtedly similar, but there are a lot of major differences that make an armed invasion unlikely here.
Then again, I could be dead wrong (figuratively and literally). More below the fold.