
(via Calamities of Nature)
Mary and I are on the way home; McCarran Airport has free wi-fi; and I notice that the Endless Thread is full. So, yay, fast update just before I get on an airplane.
(Current totals: 12,737 entries with 1,437,530 comments.)
Yesterday, I listened to the talks by Sadie Crabtree and Carol Tavris on the art of persuasion, and how we can further our cause by applying the science of psychology. Today, I sat on a panel with Sadie and Carol, and also Phil Plait and Eugenie Scott and Jamy Ian Swiss, discussing communicating skepticism. I didn’t go in with any notes — it was a panel! — but I thought I’d try to articulate in text the points I tried to make. So some of this is stuff I said on the panel, and some it is stuff I just wish I’d said.
Sure, there is irrational, unbreakable core to the opposition, but there are also great masses of people with mere leanings one way or another, who must be approached as honest actors, and where the best tactics for winning them over are open, polite communication and appeal to their values, rather than a full body tackle. I agree 100% with Sadie and Carol, and if you missed their talks, look ’em up when the JREF makes the recordings available, and pay attention. It’s good stuff.
But I am also troubled by it all.
What they were talking about is politics. I’m no good at politics, I freely admit, but I can at least look and observe and see what’s going on. And here’s what bothers me: the other side doesn’t follow Sadie and Carol’s advice, and they’re doing great. The Republicans in congress aren’t negotiating honestly; they’re sticking to an absolutist ideology. The god-botherers aren’t negotiating with us; they want to club us over the head with dogma. And while we can point to those tactics and see that they clearly don’t work on us, the kind of people who’d come to TAM, they clearly do work to win over a great many people.
And then I look at the president of the US, and I see a smart man who represents many of the strategies discussed here, somebody who is a fantastically skilled negotiator and compromiser who can achieve many partial victories…but I also see a Democrat who has been steadily worming himself closer and closer to conservative ideals. Maybe he’ll win the next election and explode into a liberal socialist superhero, but that’s a more audacious hope than I have.
Let’s not ignore that unswayable core on the other side. That is a great strength for them: there is no doubting that when Sadie and Carol come calling and make their sincere, rational and often effective appeals, the target of their persuasion can look to the right and see the giant figures of Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Perry standing like rocks in the tide, unmoving and impenetrable, and be comforted.
And then I’ve talked to a great many people who have left religion behind, which includes quite a few people here, and you know, many of them weren’t coaxed into joining us. I have met so many people who became atheists after reading Richard Dawkins’ book, The God Delusion, and in case you haven’t read it, it’s not a diplomatic book. It was like a thunderbolt from the sky. What won people over wasn’t subtlety and gentle appeals, it was clarity and strength. While strength alone is tyranny, kindness and charity without confidence and resolve behind them become nothing but weakness and surrender.
Don’t get me wrong; I’m not saying we must endorse only our rock-ribbed heroes of godless skepticism, or that they can do no wrong. I’m saying we have to do it all, embracing a wide range of tactics, including the proximate tools of psychology and holding high a coherent and strong set of principles. Unfortunately, in recent years, many of the people in this movement have wrongly decided that the most firmly principled people in our ranks are all dicks who need to be chastened — a weakness the other side does not have. I sometimes feel like we spend more time gnawing at our foundations than we do effectively peeling away opponents to our side.
So here we are, once again talking about how to communicate, and I fear that we’ll lose is the sense of what to communicate. Don’t forget: the truth is our pole star, science is the vessel we use to progress, and a passion to explore and learn is the engine of our purpose. If we lose sight of that in our concern to be gentle with those who impede us, we’ll lose our way.
(Yeah, I did actually say that last bit. Some people seemed to like it.)
It’s been a strange weekend.

Everyone is wearing Randi-esque, long white beards.

I ran across a delegation of Norwegians in the lobby.

This was dinner.
I need to sleep someday.
This is just kind of sad, but it’s something I’ve seen several times (Ed “Old As Coal” Conrad, the Seazoria guy): someone sees random clutter in some collections of rocks, perceives a pattern, and charges off, convinced that they have discovered amazing fossils of improbable creatures. In this case, the fellow has found mottled patterns in seashore rocks, and a few old bones, and has decided that he has uncovered a treasure trove of pterodactyl skeletons. He has also decided that these nondescript lumps must be worth a lot of money: $100,000.
Pterodactyl with Tail’s, Pterodactyl’s,Pterodactyl fossil’s, Ramphamorph fossil’s, Dinosaur Fossil’s, Sea Shell and Pearl’s, Pterodactyl Fossil’s for sale, Fossil!
These Fossils Are Formed By Volcanic Activity Brought On By Meteorites Impacting The California Coastline Millions Of Years Ago. When The Impacts Hit The Coastline, Sand And Sea Shells Where Subsiquintly Deposited Inland , Forty Feet Of Sand In Some Area’s! Basicly Cooking These Fossil’s Before They Could Change There Facial Expressions! These fossils are also from the Franciscan formation.
There Are More Than Ten Heads On The Ramphamorph Nest Piece! Named Ramphamorph Obviously For The Funny Snorkle “Gill Ram” On The Right Side Of Their Head’s For Breathing under water while chasing pre-historic salmon. The Hatchlings Have Tails, That Have Detail Better Then Any Other I Have Ever Seen. On The Under Side Is Mom, An Egg And A Little Baby That has It’s Eye Open !Bottom Row Middle jpg. This Fossil provides endless study oppertunity. I’m Asking $100,000. O.B.O.
The Pterodactyl Upper Row Middle Has Different Toes More Like A Claw And His Tail Is A Little Different, He is also Holding His Mom’s Eyebrow As Well As Half Of A Prehistoric Mouse! It Look’s Like This Pterodactyl Earns His Name! $100,000. O.B.O
I don’t think so. He could probably make more money trying to sell those surplus apostrophes than these things.
He does at least have a rich fantasy life, though.
OK, I’m feeling guilty: I’m off at The Amaz!ng Meeting enjoying myself, and totally neglecting the blog readers who aren’t lucky enough to be here too. And since I’ve been getting lots of requests to put the full content of my talk online, I figured…yeah, sure, I can do that. So here you go, all of the slides and what I said about them, mostly, below the fold. Criticize and argue and do your usual.
Then maybe you’ll be interested in joining the Pharyngula horde at the Garden Buffet at 6pm (and later) for whatever. It’s a Pharyngula meetup in the casino!
I guess the Catholic church is concerned about the rights of breast cancer tumors: they probably identify too much with a deadly metastatic disease, and don’t want to seem them hindered. At least, that’s the only way I can interpret the decision of the Toledo, Ohio diocese to ban all support for the Susan G. Komen Foundation. Or maybe it’s just because breast cancer primarily affects women, so letting them die is of minimal consequence to them.
Their published reasoning is almost as ludicrous as that. Church officials say they won’t support Komen because 1) some of the money might go to Planned Parenthood, and we all know how much sanctioned church doctrine hates rational family planning, and 2) some of the money might someday support stem cell research. The Foundation doesn’t have any specific programs funneling money to stem cell research right now, but they might, someday, so let’s cut ’em off for something they don’t do!
I’m also rather peeved about another thing. The head of the Ohio Komen affiliate said, to persuade the church to reverse its declaration, that the local affiliate had not used any of its money to support Planned Parenthood. Screw that; maybe you haven’t, but you ought to be willing to do so if appropriate, and don’t throw an ally under the bus like that.
I got to see the loud, ferocious Jamie Kilstein performing tonight, so I thought I’d let all of you in Los Angeles know that you better not miss his show on 18 July. He’ll make you tremble in fear like the good godless liberal he is.
I just gave my talk at TAM on likely paths of alien evolution (my conclusion: humanoids are extraordinarily unlikely), and there was one awkward bit I have to fix.
Here’s the problem: these were short talks, only a half hour long, so I designed it so there were some optional bits I’d only get to if time allowed, and I also had a couple of places where I could naturally bring it to a close if I ran over time. I was not able to show the last two slides I’d prepared, which was OK, I was ready for that. However, when we were setting up, the technician accidentally flashed the very last slide to the audience, which is a weird image, and it had to be left unexplained…so now I’ll explain it here on the blog.
Here it is, PZ’s TAM talk: the Lost Slides. This was to go right after I’d summed up the main reasons why we ought to expect great surprises in any alien morphology.
There’s one more brief and somewhat tangential point I have to make, because it’s weird and keeps coming up. I call it the Kirk effect: to boldly go and explore strange new worlds, and to hump all the women on them. This is not going to happen.

This is the most recent outrageous example of this, from the space fantasy movie Avatar. James Cameron consciously chose (for understandable dramatic and profit-making reasons) to completely ignore what science said and shape his aliens to fit human expectations. And that meant making them sexy.
This is more than just sticking large lumps of adipose tissue on the female’s chest. It’s deep and subtle changes to the shape of the face, the eyes, the whole of the body — cues that we all unconsciously recognize. You don’t even need to see a person face-on to recognize sex. All you heterosexual men and lesbians, you know this: sight of the nape of the neck, the curve of waist to hip, all those are enough to make your heart go pitta-pat. And all you heterosexual women and gay men: broad shoulders, narrow hips, muscular buns…they can do it for you, right?
Let me show you. I know this is a family audience, so if you’re shy about female nudity or assertive sexual displays, I’m going to show you a bit of porn to make my point. So if you’re a little prudish, put your hands over your kids eyes or your own, because this may be an arousing image…
