Hurricane Sandy effects in Cleveland

I woke up this morning to see that a huge pine tree that was right next to our house in the backyard had toppled over. Fortunately it missed our house and the garage and the power line. It did knock out our telephone line so now I have no landline phone and hence no internet access at home, since I use DSL. [Read more...]

More on polls

In an earlier post yesterday, I mentioned the ‘house effect’ of polls. These are the size of the effects that a given polling outfit produces in favor of one or the other party. They are not necessarily biases in the sense of the polling firm deliberately distorting the results. It is often the result of methodologies that produce different effects such as sampling only likely voters vs registered voters, cell phones vs. landlines, robocalls vs. human calls, weighting by party affiliation, etc. Simon Jackman has an article explaining it in more detail. [Read more...]

Who’ll be the first?

Hurricane Sandy is bearing down on the East Coast of the US. Apart from Virginia (which is a toss-up), all the other states in its path vote reliably Democratic.

If Sandy does wreak a large amount of damage, I wonder who will be the first crazy preacher to suggest that this is god’s punishment for the liberal leanings of the people in that region, their support for same-sex marriage, and their pro-choice views.

UPDATE: It looks like we may already have a winner!