Detecting lies and liars

I watch a lot of police procedurals and a standard scene is where an experienced detective interviews someone and then later tells a colleague that the person is lying. They say it confidently, and the viewer is led to believe that their wide experience with people who lie makes them capable of detecting when someone is telling falsehoods, that subtle clues reveal it. I don’t play poker but I am told that good players can tell when someone is bluffing by picking up on subtle indicators. There are also apparently TV shows whose central characters are people who are professional detectors of when people are lying.

But this article says that it is very hard to know when someone is lying.
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Wasting food

I hate to see food wasted. I really, really hate it. I will try and eat everything in the fridge, even if I don’t like it, if the alternative is throwing it away. I will cut out the bits of food that are spoiled and eat the rest. It is not that I am cheap. It is just that I think that throwing food away should be the absolute last resort. It really bothers me that so much food is wasted in the US. Part of it is due to the sheer size and complexity of the food distribution system in which the producer and consumer are separated by such vast distances that some wastage is inevitable in storage and transportation. This is perhaps understandable as an unavoidable consequence of creating complex societies.
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A case study of dogged perseverance in mathematics

It is widely held that mathematics at the highest levels is a young person’s game and that once one hits the age of forty, one has pretty much exhausted one’s potential for any creative contribution to the field. The famous mathematician G. H. Hardy said, “No mathematician should ever allow himself to forget that mathematics, more than any other art or science, is a young man’s game… I do not know of an instance of a major mathematical advance initiated by a man past fifty.”

This was partly why it was such a shock when in 2015 a paper appeared in the prestigious journal Annals of Mathematics claiming to have solved a major unsolved problem and that the author was the nearly 60-year old Yitang Zhang, an untenured part-time calculus teacher at the University of New Hampshire who had published only one paper in the past in 2001.
 
So what did Zhang do? He proved a long-standing conjecture in number theory involving prime numbers that dates back to the nineteenth century. Alec Wilkinson wrote a long article in the New Yorker about Zhang, the theorem he proved, and how it came about.
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Mystifying behavior

I know that prejudice exists. I know that some people carry their prejudicial animosities to extremes. But despite that awareness, I am still surprised when I read reports like this.

A woman was arrested for stabbing an 18-year-old girl in the head multiple times on a Bloomington Transit bus in Indiana.

Billie R. Davis, 56, repeatedly stabbed the teen using a pocket knife while she was waiting for the bus doors to open at the intersection of West Fourth Street and the B-Line Trail at around 4:45 p.m. on Wednesday, according to police.
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According to the police’s review of the stabbing, footage from Bus No. 1777 showed no interaction between the two women prior to the attack.
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A passenger who witnessed the attack reportedly followed Davis off the bus and updated police on her location. Davis was arrested near the intersection of Kirkwood Avenue and South Washington Street.

According to an affidavit of probable cause, Davis said she attacked the 18-year-old for being Chinese.

“Race was a factor in why she stabbed her,” the affidavit read, according to The Herald-Times. “Davis made a statement that it would be one less person to blow up our country.”
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According to the affidavit, Davis had the intention to kill the teen as footage shows her unfolding her knife and stabbing the victim seven times in the head.

The actions of people like Davis baffle me. Her thinking that Asians are trying to blow up “her” country is not what puzzles me. Thanks to Trump and the Republicans whipping up nativist and anti-Chinese sentiment, such beliefs are sadly all too common. But did she carry a knife with her all the time in the event that she ran across some Asian she could kill? Or was it a spontaneous action that was caused by having an Asian person next to her that caused her to whip out a knife she happened to be carrying?

It is all so pointless. Don’t these people do a simple cost-benefit analysis of their actions? After all, killing one Asian would still leave millions of them alive so the benefit is slight. But the cost to her personally would be huge because she is surely going to prison fr a long time.

Discreet and discrete

Any discussion about language usage tends to provoke disagreements between so-called prescriptivists (those who argue that we should try and maintain what they consider to be standard or correct usage) and descriptivists (those who argue that language just reflects current usage and is thus always evolving and that there is no timeless standard that can be appealed to.)

David Owen writes about a pet peeve of his that he claims is beyond an issue of taste and is objectively objectionable.

Here’s an example of a sentence type that I think no writer should ever use:

A former resident of Brooklyn, Mrs. Jones is survived by three daughters and five grandchildren.

The first phrase is an appositive—typically a noun or noun phrase that modifies another noun or noun phrase, which appears next to it in the sentence. (“A former resident of Brooklyn” and “Mrs. Jones” refer to the same person, so they are said to be “in apposition.”) Appositives almost always follow the noun they modify, and are set off by commas; the kind I don’t like come first.
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My problem with all such sentences is that they seem to have been turned inside out: they start in one direction, then swerve in another. The awkwardness is obvious if you imagine hearing one in conversation. No one has ever said to you, “A sophomore at Cornell, my niece is coming home for Christmas,” or “Sixty-six years old, my wife is an incredible cook.” Either sentence, if spoken, would sound almost comical, as though the speaker were struggling to learn English. (You wouldn’t use one in an e-mail or a text to a friend, either.)

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Finally, news reports that month-over-month CPI has dropped

In a recent post, I complained that the media tends to report just the year-over-year inflation figures even though those numbers can remain high even when inflation has stopped or prices have even fallen. I said that the month-over-month figure is a better indicator of current inflation and should be reported as well.

Well today, they reported just that, confirming my suspicion that inflation likely peaked back in June and since then has ceased or even declined.

Prices dropped in the US in December for the first time since May 2020, in an encouraging sign that the inflation crisis may be easing.

According to the latest consumer price index (CPI) – which measures a broad range of goods and services – the cost of living dropped 0.1% in December compared with a rise of 0.1% in November. The annual rate of inflation fell to 6.5% from 7.1% in the previous month, the sixth straight month of yearly declines, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Falling gas prices were by far the largest contributor to the monthly decrease, falling 9.4% over the month, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes, which rose 0.8% over the month and were 7.5% higher than a year ago.
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US inflation peaked at 9.1% in June, its highest rate since 1982, as the war in Ukraine drove up energy costs and supply-chain issues in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic continued to push prices higher.

Despite the fall, the inflation rate remains more than three times as high as the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%, and is expected to remain elevated through 2023.

The professionals at the Federal Reserve know all this of course and likely take both CPI rates and other factors into account but the general public may not be as aware and giving only the year-over-year figure may make them fearful that inflation is still high when it might have stopped or even declined.

Why did T. Rex have such small arms?

While the dinosaur Tyrannosaurus Rex is huge, its arms are surprisingly small and this has been a puzzle for scientists. This article describes the search for an explanation ever since the discovery of fossil remains of the dinosaur in 1902 by a team of paleontologists led by Barnum Brown from the American Museum of Natural History, an institution that was headed by Henry Fairfield Osborn.


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Be careful when using unfamiliar words

The word ‘cis’ has recently entered the vernacular in the US and I too only recently became aware of its usage. I had assumed that it was a neologism but it appears that it is derived from an old word with Latin roots. According to Wikipedia, “Cisgender (often shortened to cis; sometimes cissexual) is a term used to describe a person whose gender identity corresponds to their sex assigned at birth. The word cisgender is the antonym of transgender. The prefix cis- is Latin and means ‘on this side of’ “.

Pronouns have recently become part of the many culture wars that rage in the US, especially being by right-wingers, often invoking them in pathetic attempts as humor. Ted Cruz said in a speech that his pronouns are ‘kiss my ass’ while Elon Musk recently tweeted that his pronouns are ‘prosecute/Fauci’. Neither of these works as jokes because they make no sense but what they are really meant to be are dog whistles to signal to their supporters that the speaker is firmly on the side of anti-LGBTQ bigotry.
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Covid finally catches me

Last Tuesday night (ie., a week ago), I started a cough and felt that I had a fever so I took a test on Wednesday morning that confirmed that I had Covid. I am pretty sure that I know how I got it. I have been very conscientious about wearing my N95 mask in all indoor public settings but on New Year’s Eve I attended a party. While I wore my mask almost all the time, I removed it to eat and I expect that that was when the virus snuck in. My symptoms started three days after that event. I have been isolating myself since then.

My symptoms were mild. In addition to the slight cough, I had a fever of about 101F. Three days after my test, by Friday, my fever had gone and I felt back to normal but I will continue to isolate for another week just to make sure that I am not contagious. Friends and neighbors who became aware that I have Covid have been very generous with offers of food and to run errands.

I am now part of the nearly 700 million people globally who have had the virus. I wrote earlier about the kinds of personal risk-benefit calculations one makes. I had on a few occasions removed my mask in indoor public spaces in order to eat and had not caught Covid. But it is always a gamble. You can reduce the risk by taking precautions but can never make it zero.