Has it really been five years since I first posted (2016/10/12)?
Yes. But if you take away the long absences, it’s more like three and a half.
Intransitive
Keeping it to a minimalist
Has it really been five years since I first posted (2016/10/12)?
Yes. But if you take away the long absences, it’s more like three and a half.
In early 2020, a so-called “study” made the rounds claiming, that “smokers are protected from COVID-19!” It may have been early in the pandemic, but you didn’t need a PhD to figure out that people with lungs damaged by cigarettes would be more vulnerable to the effects of COVID-19, not less.
Predictably, the paper has been retracted. Even more unsurprisingly, the “writers” were taking money from tobacco companies without declaring who was funding them. Now they’re backpedalling and trying to salvage their careers, claiming, “we weren’t influenced!” Good luck with that.
Scientific paper claiming smokers less likely to acquire Covid retracted over tobacco industry links
A scientific paper claiming current smokers are 23% less likely to be diagnosed with Covid-19 compared to non-smokers has been retracted by a medical journal, after it was discovered some of the paper’s authors had financial links to the tobacco industry.
[. . .]
The latest edition of the European Respiratory Journal included a retraction notice for the paper, stating: “It was brought to the editors’ attention that two of the authors had failed to disclose potential conflicts of interest at the time of the manuscript’s submission.”
“That is, one of the authors (José M. Mier) at the time had a current and ongoing role in providing consultancy to the tobacco industry on tobacco harm reduction; and another (Konstantinos Poulas) at the time was a principal investigator for the Greek NGO NOSMOKE … a science and innovation hub that has received funding from the Foundation for a Smoke Free World (an organisation funded by the tobacco industry).”
Apparently, the European Respiratory Journal didn’t scrutinize that paper before publishing it. Are we sure that’s the only time this happened?
Smokers up to 80% more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid, study says
Smokers are 60%-80% more likely to be admitted to hospital with Covid-19 and also more likely to die from the disease, data suggests.
A study, which pooled observational and genetic data on smoking and Covid-19 to strengthen the evidence base, contradicts research published at the start of the pandemic suggesting that smoking might help to protect against the virus.
[. . .]
One problem is that most of these studies have been observational, making it difficult to establish whether smoking is the cause of any increased risk, or whether something else is to blame, such as smokers being more likely to come from a lower socioeconomic background.
Dr Ashley Clift at the University of Oxford and colleagues drew on GP health records, Covid-19 test results, hospital admissions data and death certificates to identify associations between smoking and Covid-19 severity from January to August 2020 in 421,469 participants of the UK Biobank study – all of whom had also previously had their genetic makeup analysed.
Compared with those who had never smoked, current smokers were 80% more likely to be admitted to hospital and significantly more likely to die from Covid-19 if they became infected.
Here’s a link to the study, published in the British Medical Journal:
Abstract
Background Conflicting evidence has emerged regarding the relevance of smoking on risk of COVID-19 and its severity.
[. . .]
Results There were 421 469 eligible participants, 1649 confirmed infections, 968 COVID-19-related hospitalisations and 444 COVID-19-related deaths. Compared with never-smokers, current smokers had higher risks of hospitalisation (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.29) and mortality (smoking 1–9/day: OR 2.14, 95% CI 0.87 to 5.24; 10–19/day: OR 5.91, 95% CI 3.66 to 9.54; 20+/day: OR 6.11, 95% CI 3.59 to 10.42). In MR analyses of 281 105 White British participants, genetically predicted propensity to initiate smoking was associated with higher risks of infection (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.91) and hospitalisation (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.27). Genetically predicted higher number of cigarettes smoked per day was associated with higher risks of all outcomes (infection OR 2.51, 95% CI 1.20 to 5.24; hospitalisation OR 5.08, 95% CI 2.04 to 12.66; and death OR 10.02, 95% CI 2.53 to 39.72).
Interpretation Congruent results from two analytical approaches support a causal effect of smoking on risk of severe COVID-19.
It’s well documented that cigarette companies intentionally target poor and non-white neighborhoods in the US, with as much as ten times the advertising you will see in white neighborhoods. And it’s far worse in countries without well developed anti-tobacco legislation. From the Truth Initiative:
Tobacco is a social justice issue: Racial and ethnic minorities
While the youth smoking rate has now dropped to a record low of 6 percent, that number does not tell the whole story. Tobacco use disproportionately affects many marginalized populations—including people in low-income communities, racial and ethnic minorities, LGBT individuals and those with mental illness—who have a long and documented history of being targeted by the tobacco industry.
Black people smoke at a similar rate compared to white people, with 16.7 percent smoking every day or some days, but they are more likely to die from a tobacco-related disease than white people. American Indians and Alaska Natives smoke at higher rates than all other racial and ethnic groups, with 21.9 percent reporting that they have smoked every day or some days.
Why do these disparities along lines of race and ethnicity exist? The answer is tied to the many ways that tobacco use disproportionately affects minority groups, who have a long history of being targeted by the tobacco industry.
Tobacco companies have strategically marketed tobacco products to appeal to racial and ethnic communities for decades.
The most striking example is menthol cigarettes. These cigarettes, which are easier to smoke and harder to quit, have long been marketed to the black community. About 85 percent of all black smokers use menthol cigarettes, a rate that is nearly three times higher than white smokers. (More on menthol smoking rates.)
Big Tobacco has sponsored cultural events, targeted direct mail promotions and placed advertising in publications and venues that are popular with black audiences. For example, a 2011 review concluded that Ebony magazine was almost 10 times more likely than People magazine to contain an advertisement for menthol cigarettes. The marketing is so pervasive, that a 2013 study found that black children were three times more likely to recognize advertisements for Newport, the most popular menthol brand among that group, than other children.
This is why (even before the pandemic) tobacco companies have been fighting tooth and nail to prevent a ban on menthol cigarettes and targeted advertising, marketing them directly at Black people. Nearly all adult smokers began when they were teenagers. Just like religion, if they don’t addict them while they are young, they never get them.
I don’t expect tobacco companies to be on the hook for any lawsuits despite the fact that their product is most likely to kill the most vulnerable people. But they should be facing lawsuits and paying compensation for intentionally encouraging and facilitating smoking during lockdowns. From the Southeast Asian Tobacco Control Alliance:
Tobacco companies thrived during COVID-19 pandemic
During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, transnational tobacco companies continued to sell their cigarettes while stepping-up sales of vape and heated tobacco products. The pandemic may have caused temporary disruption to their business, but they bounced back and the companies made profits.
[. . .]
According to its president, “During this period, we grew share in most of our key markets and captured pricing opportunities. … While we expect the operating environment in 2021 to remain highly uncertain, we expect to continue gaining market share globally both in combustibles and in RRP.”
“Captured pricing opportunities”? More like captive audiences, targeting bored people with nothing to do. It’s predatory and racist capitalism at its worst.
I saw this item from the Special Broadcasting Service (SBS) on Friday but had a two day birthday to attend. Upon reading it, I felt the same amusement that Australians did. I mean, seriously? “Orwellian oppression”? Australia’s government (despite being a bunch of rightwing buffoons) have managed not to screw up and keep COVID-19 under control without drastic measures that other countries have resorted to, despite the outbreaks they’ve had.
Australia and Taiwan have similar populations, number of COVID cases, and number of deaths. Only the population density is different.
Crowds of anti-vaccine protesters chant ‘save Australia’ during rally in New York
Some Australians have reacted with bemusement to an anti-vaccination protest in New York where US demonstrators vowed to “save” Australia from COVID-19 lockdowns.
Hundreds of Americans opposing mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations for teachers have rallied outside the Australian consulate in New York City, chanting “Save Australia!” in an attempt to highlight lockdown restrictions in parts of the country.
Waving cardboard cutouts of Australian flags, calling for “freedom” and chanting “we will not comply”, the protesters marched across the city’s streets, crossing the Brooklyn Bridge before stopping at the Australian consulate in Manhattan for speeches.
Even the protests they’ve had in Australia have been restrained compared to the anti-vaxxer nonsense we’ve seen in the US.
What I didn’t expect to see today (Saturday) was this story from Maryland, an anti-vaxxer wingnut who murdered his brother, a pharmacist distributing vaccinations against COVID-19.
A Maryland man charged in the deaths of his brother, sister-in-law and another woman may have killed his brother, a pharmacist, because the brother was administering COVID-19 vaccines, charging documents show, according to CBS Washington, D.C. affiliate WUSA-TV.
Jeffrey Burnham, 46, of Cumberland, “wanted to confront” his brother “with the government poisoning people with COVID vaccines,” one document reads, adding, “He repeatedly stated, ‘Brian knows something!'”
Burnham’s mother told detectives he planned to confront his brother, 58-year-old Brian Robinette, Howard County court documents specify.
The documents say Burnham also killed Robinette’s wife, 57-year-old Kelly Sue Robinette and another woman, identified as 83-year-old Rebecca Reynolds.
Jiminy Crickets. Not only a triple murder for no reason whatsoever, but also who knows how many denied a vaccine and could potentially die. How many more assaults and murders will this incite? Violence can also be contagious.
This meme/joke appeared in a group on Wednesday. I wasn’t laughing when I saw it because I knew it would be true again soon.
But I didn’t expect it to be that soon, twelve hours before the school shooting in Texas.
This was my semi-sarcastic response to the meme when it appeared:
The myth: “All US currency has traces of cocaine on it!”
The reality: It has traces of gunpowder.
Somehow, I suspect that’s true.
China’s real estate and construction industries are on the brink of financial collapse. It’s not just Evergrande, it’s other companies like Fantasia and Chinese Estates Holdings that are making moves to avoid government action.
China’s construction industry and construction firms are also under pressure thanks to the growing number of building collapses. This summer, several buildings within the PRC have either collapsed due to poor construction, or been intentionally demolished for reasons of safety. None of them have been a result of earthquakes.
And it’s not just buildings, it’s roads. Sinkholes have appeared in cities, roads washed away by flooding, foundations under roads and buildings eroded with the rain. The PRC’s flooding problem is worse in 2021 than it was in 2020, so bad that they are intentionally destroying dams to alleviate pressure or controlled demolition before they collapse catastrophically.
[ A word of note before beginning: Finding good sources for some parts of this post was difficult, and I doubt some that I’m using. If more reliable sources appear, I’ll update them. ]
First, to outline the problem with a credible source, emphasis in the text is mine. From The Diplomat, 2012:
China’s Dangerous Tofu Projects
The term “tofu project” was first coined by Premier Zhu Rongji in 1998, who said on a tour of flood dykes on the Yangtze River that they were as flimsy and porous as tofu dregs, the leftover bits in the tofu-making process. The term – and the problem – gained national traction after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, where 20,000 of the almost 70,000 victims were schoolchildren who died in collapsed school buildings, which were later proven to be hastily and shoddily built.
Four years later, the problem of “tofu projects” remains.
In July 2010, anger over shoddy construction erupted in an area hit hard by the Sichuan earthquake when a building intended to be a new home for earthquake victims collapsed (or was demolished, according to state sources) just a few weeks before completion.
In November 2010, 53 people were killed in a high-rise apartment building fire caused by an unlicensed welder. And last month, a car accident in Jiangsu Province revealed that a dam built atop of a Yangtze River tributary was filled with reeds instead of steel beams.
There were several other similar incidents throughout this summer alone. But these are not isolated cases; “tofu dreg” buildings have been an issue for twenty years.
Washington Post, July, an article mentioning multiple collapses, fires and explosions
BBC, July: Hotel collapse in China’s Suzhou kills 17, injures five
ANI India, August: 4 killed, 7 injured in building collapse in China
Yahoo, September: Building collapses into floodwaters in China
Indian Express, September: Fifteen skyscrapers left unfinished for years demolished after rain damage
The current worst has to be the SEG Plaze in Shenzhen. In a mild breeze, the building visibly wobbles at the top. The building is so unstable that it has been abandoned by tenants. Official government propaganda claims it is “safe”, but no one will go back unless forced at gunpoint. Instead of a crown jewel on the city, it has turned into China’s equivalent of the Ryugyong Hotel. There is video of the shaking.
The Guardian: Panic as 300-metre-high skyscraper wobbles in China
One of China’s tallest skyscrapers was evacuated on Tuesday after it began to shake, sending panicked shoppers scampering to safety.
The near 300 metre (980ft) high SEG Plaza in Shenzhen, southern China, inexplicably began to shake at around 1pm, prompting an evacuation of people inside while pedestrians looked on open-mouthed.
The building was closed by 2.40pm, according to local media reports.
Completed in 2000, the tower is home to a major electronics market as well as various offices in the centre of one of China’s fastest-growing cities.
Officials are investigating what caused the tower in the city’s Futian district to wobble, according to a post on the Twitter-like Weibo platform.
Beijing is so panicked that buildings over 500 metres will no longer be approved, and anything over 250 metres will require special permission, and be limited in number. I wonder what they’re going to do about the 600 metre tall China 117 Tower. It’s unfinished and unoccupied, but nobody has the money to complete it. At least that one’s not in danger of collapsing. . .yet.
Below the fold are less credible sources from youtube videos. Take all of them with the same heavy dose of skepticism I do.
I would imagine most reading FtB had a good laugh about facebook’s farce.
Computerphile’s Steve Bagley ably explains how and why facebook shot themselves in the foot.
What’s also amusing is how facebook addicts freak out about outages. When it happened in 2019 for a similar length of time, some started calling the cops. I remember news items saying this happened so often that cops warned people not to do it. No doubt they put the warning on their facebook pages.
The outage happened just before midnight my time, so I shrugged, kept writing and watching youtube, then went to bed. Few people I know would have been awake and affected by the shutdown.
Todd Akin killed his career in 2012 with one sentence, suffering a political death. As of today, Akin finally has a legitimate death. Good riddance.
He didn’t “die of cancer”. He WAS a cancer.
It was Akin who ignorantly said during his 2012 senate re-election campaign, “From what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare [. . .] If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.”
Akin may have been the one to say it aloud, but we all know full well that every rightwingnut who is a pro-rape, anti-woman, politician since then who has tried to outlaw abortion (e.g. Greg Abbatoir) believe the exact same thing: “If she’s pregnant, she wasn’t raped. If she says she was, it’s a false accusation against an innocent man.”
Proving that point, it was today that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had to school fools on the realities of pregnancy and rape, on rightwingnuts still promoting the fictions they learnt from Bill Cosby and teenage male bathroom talk. AOC is more than A-OK, she’s fantastic at exposing those frauds.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Teaches GOP Basic Female Anatomy During Abortion Hearing
“Once again we’re in a room of legislators who are attempting to legislate reproductive systems that they know nothing about,” Ocasio-Cortez said in a congressional hearing about the new law.
[. . .]
“When you are raped, you don’t always know what happened to you,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “And I speak about this as a survivor. … You are in so much shock at what happened to you, sometimes it takes years to realize what actually went on.”
[. . .]
Ocasio-Cortez also pointed out that rapes are “overwhelmingly” committed by someone the victim knows, even though some legislators would lead you to believe otherwise.
“This myth, that it’s some person lurking on a street or in a parking lot waiting to sexually assault you, that myth only benefits the abusers in power that want you to think that that’s how it happens,” she said, peering around the room. “It’s your friend. It’s a boyfriend. It’s a boss. It’s a legislator.”
Akin may not have (as far as we know) raped women himself, but his words empowered those who want to legalize it, to criminalize and imprison women who have natural miscarriages, never mind having an abortion. His words made it possible. His words were Akin to legalizing rape.
You can tell a lot about a media’s agenda, who it’s beholden to, which advertisers dictate it’s editorial view by the stories it publishes.
Two items were recently published about Paris after the decision to ban cars from many roads and create pedestrian and bicycle spaces while limit speeds on other roads. One appeared in the New York Timid Times, the other in Slate (hardly the bastion of objectivity, but the lesser of two evils here). You can guess how this one is going to turn out.
On Friday, the NYT published this tripes, claiming cyclists are terrorizing public streets and making it unsafe to be a pedestrian. As if it were safe to walk with cars speeding down alleys at 50kmh. The US “car culture” mentality and obedience to corporate interests (big three and big oil) are evident throughout. It’s all unsubstantiated anecdotes and accusations, full of scare words like “socialist”, and sparse on facts.
As Bikers Throng the Streets, ‘It’s Like Paris Is in Anarchy’
An ecologically minded experiment to make Paris a cycling capital of Europe has led to a million people now pedaling daily — and to rising tensions with pedestrians.
By Liz Alderman
PARIS — On a recent afternoon, the Rue de Rivoli looked like this: Cyclists blowing through red lights in two directions. Delivery bike riders fixating on their cellphones. Electric scooters careening across lanes. Jaywalkers and nervous pedestrians scrambling as if in a video game.
Sarah Famery, a 20-year resident of the Marais neighborhood, braced for the tumult. She looked left, then right, then left and right again before venturing into a crosswalk, only to break into a rant-laden sprint as two cyclists came within inches of grazing her.
“It’s chaos!” exclaimed Ms. Famery, shaking a fist at the swarm of bikes that have displaced cars on the Rue de Rivoli ever since it was remade into a multilane highway for cyclists last year. “Politicians want to make Paris a cycling city, but no one is following any rules,” she said. “It’s becoming risky just to cross the street!”
[. . .]
Mayor Anne Hidalgo, who is campaigning for the French presidency, has been burnishing her credentials as an ecologically minded Socialist candidate. She has earned admirers and enemies alike with a bold program to transform greater Paris into the world’s leading environmentally sustainable metropolis, reclaiming vast swaths of the city from cars for parks, pedestrians and a Copenhagen-style cycling revolution.
She has made highways along the Seine car-free and last year, during coronavirus lockdowns, oversaw the creation of over 100 miles of new bike paths. She plans to limit cars in 2022 in the heart of the city, along half of the Right Bank and through the Boulevard Saint Germain.
Parisians have heeded the call: A million people in a metropolis of 10 million are now pedaling daily. And Paris now ranks among the world’s top 10 cycling cities.
But with success has come major growing pains.
“It’s like Paris is in anarchy,” said Jean-Conrad LeMaitre, a former banker who was out for a stroll recently along the Rue de Rivoli. “We need to reduce pollution and improve the environment,” he said. “But everyone is just doing as they please. There are no police, no fines, no training and no respect.”
[. . .]
Back on the Rue de Rivoli, cyclists swerved to avoid pedestrians playing a game of chicken with oncoming bikes. “Pay attention!” a cyclist in a red safety vest and goggles shouted at three women crossing against a red light, as he nearly crashed in the rain.
Cyclists say Paris hasn’t done enough to make bike commuting safe. Bike accidents jumped 35 percent last year, from 2019. Paris en Selle, a cycling organization, has held protests calling for road security after several cyclists were killed in collisions with motorists, including, recently, a 2-year-old boy riding with his father who was killed near the Louvre when a truck turned into them.
So the father was at fault for not getting out of the way of the truck, not the truck for failing to obey the law and ensure it could turn safely? How very auto-cratic of you, Ms. Alderman.
And “everyone is doing as they please with no respect”? As if drivers ever do. They act like no one has the right to be outside a building safely except inside a vehicle.
Now compare this with the Slate article from September 15:
The Liberation of Paris From Cars Is Working
By Henry Grabar
Over the past six years, Paris has done more than almost any city in the world to take space back from cars. Mayor Anne Hidalgo has opened linear parks in the old highways along the Seine, phased out diesel cars in the city, opened bus lanes, raised parking meter prices, and plowed bike lanes down hundreds of streets. When COVID hit, Paris eliminated cars from the Rue de Rivoli, its major crosstown thoroughfare. Plans are in the works to pedestrianize the Champs-Elysées and plant thousands of trees to green, clean, and cool the city.
As the adjunct mayor for transportation and public space, David Belliard is the point man for many of these endeavors. His latest projects include establishing car-free zones outside schools and enforcing the capital’s new speed limit of 30 kilometers per hour—a notch below 20 mph.
Earlier this month, I met him in his office to talk about Paris, COVID, and cars. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
David Belliard: You want an overview?
Henry Grabar: Sure.
OK, quickly: At the start of the 20th century, in the ’20s, ’30s, the car asserts itself as a travel mode in urban centers, which are transformed. Paris is clearly an old city with many centuries of history with an urban fabric. Even though it was transformed by Haussmann in the 19th century, it has an extremely dense urban fabric with a lot of small streets and a configuration a priori not adapted to the auto. When the car arrives, we transform what we can call public space, and this public space becomes automobile space, with the logical system of the car imposing itself in Paris. And public space is completely devoured, eaten away, and in a certain way privatized to one single, unique use.
Very quickly we see the limits of “total car” in Paris, even in the ’60s and ’70s. We try to say, “How can we preserve this city?”
The excerpts continue below the fold.
So Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte is quitting politics after his six year term ends. His legacy will be one of incompetence (not just how he mishandled COVID-19), violence, mass murder, corruption, intimidation and kowtowing to the PRC. About the only crime that he didn’t commit while president that I thought he’d try was to attempt a military coup. He probably didn’t have the support, not after how he treated some of the military as “political enemies”.
But just because the Monster of Manila is leaving doesn’t mean the Philippines will be any better off. The three “leading candidates” to replace him are a long time crony in the Philippine senate, his daughter who is reportedly just as violent, and Manny “Punch Drunk” Pacquiao, a rabid transphobe and homophobe.
Rodrigo Duterte: Philippine president announces retirement from politics
The 76-year-old leader said last month that he would run for the vice-presidency in 2022. The country’s constitution only permits presidents to serve a single six-year term.
But he now says he will withdraw, as “the overwhelming sentiment of the Filipinos is that I am not qualified”.
The move comes amid speculation that his daughter could run for president.
Mr Duterte, a controversial “strongman” figure, came to power in 2016 promising to reduce crime and fix the country’s drug crisis.
But critics say that during his five years in power, Mr Duterte has encouraged police to carry out thousands of extrajudicial killings of suspects in what he has called his “war on drugs”.
Here’s another report from ABC.
I guess I won’t be taking another vacation in the Philippines after COVID-19 is under control.
If I say to you, “a Florida man shot and killed a cop and was arrested after a five day manhunt”, I’m sure you can guess his skin tone.
At the propaganda conference, one of the cops talked tough, saying, “He crawled out like a baby. Like the coward that he is”.
Funny thing, that’s what I say about every cop that hides behind a badge and is protected by his department and union after murdering an innocent and unarmed Black person.
More below.
As I’m sure most have heard, China’s second largest land developer Evergrande is in dire financial straits. Evergrande has debts of over US$400 billion (reported as only US$300 billion two weeks ago) that are due immediately, and the company lacks the cash to pay it off. As of today, it managed to scrape together US$1.5 billion to calm one creditor, but that’s a drop in the bucket.
People are comparing this to the Lehman Brothers collapse, but that’s not the only valid comparison. This is on par with Enron. In 2001, Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling pumped out ENRON shares at $90 and paying themselves millions in bonuses, knowing the company would collapse in a matter of weeks. Those who “invested” at ENRON lost everything, and only the wealthy were compensated.
Evergrande’s chairman Hui Ka Yan was threatening his workers, telling them to invest their life savings in the company or they wouldn’t get paid their bonuses (and he would know whether they did or not). Many did, by force and by fear, and now may lose everything if when the corporation collapses. Meanwhile, Hui paid himself $11 billion in dividends (reported as only US$8 billion two weeks ago).
Where ENRON and Evergrande differ is who loses money. ENRON only ripped off individuals and investment houses; it was mostly the already wealthy who were hit. Banks were protected by the FDIC. In China, many of those hurt will be individuals trying to save and own a home, losing their life savings with no means of compensation; the regime certainly won’t care about how this affects individual citizens unless it causes a revolution. But just as important, 171 banks (mostly Chinese, some foreign) and over 100 investment firms are on the hook for loans to Evergrande. If the debts are over US$400 billion, then we’re talking over a trillion in financing. And unlike the G7 “too big to fail” attitude, the mass murdering PRC government may choose to let it fail unless that takes away their control. Then it may just seize and nationalize the company instead.
Property giant’s looming collapse threatens to destroy China’s growth model
As the Chinese property titan teeters on the brink of collapse, there are growing fears its ruin could threaten China’s entire economic model.
As the crisis facing the world’s most indebted real estate company rages on, many experts have remained cautiously optimistic that the nightmare was under control.
But there are now growing fears that Evergrande’s potential collapse won’t be able to be contained as easily as many initially believed.
And there’s a reasonable chance it could end up shattering China’s wider growth model along with it.
Evergrande’s troubles began as China’s real estate market soared, with demand for homes in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai sending prices skyrocketing.
The company took out a string of loans and expanded rapidly, snapping up assets and making the most of China’s thriving economy.
But when property prices began to drop in smaller cities, and when the Chinese government rolled out measures to curtail over-the-top property borrowing, via its so-called “red lines” policy, it left Evergrande in the lurch, with mountains of debt totalling a whopping $408 billion.
[. . .]
Despite serious alarm over the Evergrande saga, many economic gurus have clung to the belief the government wouldn’t let the company fail or – if it did – the threat facing the wider economy would be curtailed.
But according to an alarming article by Bloomberg’s Andrew Browne, Evergrande’s “controlled explosion” might not be so easily contained after all.
And Browne argues the nightmare “may eventually blow up China’s entire economic growth model”.
The analysis explains that China’s growth model has long been based on the “doubtful” idea that demand for real estate is “inexhaustible”, which means prices will always rise.
But in reality, “migrant flows are drying up” – a trend exacerbated but not caused by the Covid pandemic – which means there’s nobody to buy all those shiny new apartments.
You can’t have infinite growth in a finite economy or world. Like all ponzi schemes, Hui depended on a constant influx of new money from suckers. Now that the public know, they won’t buy apartments even at half the offered price. And as the money dries up, the inevitable collapse happens.
Because of how the PRC controls banks, most of the debt collapse will be internal to China unless they demand debtor developing nations suddenly pay up. (Wouldn’t it be fun to see all of Africa and Latin America say “No.” at the same time?) The biggest international effect will likely be the sudden stop in construction and end of demand for raw materials.
If Beijing was willing to make Jack Ma disappear for three months and throw him into a “re-education camp” (or whatever they did with him), it’s not beyond belief the regime would do the same or worse to Hui if he collapses the entire PRC financial system. The only human rights that the PRC believe in are the right eye, right lung and right kidney which they can sell to transplant tourists.
As the title says, September 28th is International Safe Abortion Day. I wish I heard about events like these more in advance.
From September28.org:
For this year’s International Safe Abortion Day, we call upon all countries to: remove all laws and policies restricting the right to safe abortion on request; facilitate access to safe abortion and post-abortion care for everyone who needs them; ensure that post-abortion care is available on an emergency basis at community level, provided by midwives trained in MVA and/or with pills; move abortions out of hospitals except for very late and complicated cases; allow outpatient medical abortion in the second trimester, with social distancing in the clinic and without requiring operating theatre conditions; approve medical abortion pills (mifepristone and misoprostol) on national Essential Medicines Lists; decriminalise abortion to the extent possible − raising or omitting the upper time limit, removing barriers and third party approval, aiming to make abortion a woman’s right to choose.We urge everyone to develop vigorous advocacy campaigns to demonstrate to governments and health professionals the safety, efficacy and acceptability of de-medicalised approaches to safe abortion as part of universal health coverage.
From the World Health Organization’s twitter page:
Today is #InternationalSafeAbortionDay. Access to safe #abortion protects the health and promotes the human rights of women and girlshttps://t.co/LBCUghiBh2 pic.twitter.com/II1HRd6KjK
— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) September 28, 2021
From the She Decides twitter page:
#InternationalSafeAbortionDay may be over but for Sexual Freedom activists like Thabiso, demanding the right to safe abortion doesn't stop ✋
Join them. Continue to Stand Up and Speak out using her top tips below 👇 #SexualFreedomSeptemberhttps://t.co/gE51aFluPl pic.twitter.com/JS9IwPVL7G
— SheDecides (@SheDecidesGFI) September 29, 2021
From the Amnesty Ireland twitter page:
"The Yes vote felt like a justification that what had happened to us, that we had to travel to be able to get health care, was wrong, and that the people had recognized that it was wrong" – @TFMRIREhttps://t.co/3s6FtWctt1
— Amnesty Ireland (@AmnestyIreland) September 29, 2021
In 2017, Taiwan’s supreme court ruled that there was no argument against marriage equality, a decision which forced the government to write new legislation or marriage equality would become law by default. While the current legislation is lacking (the only non-cishetero foreigners who can marry Taiwanese people are those whose country has marriage equality), it is being changed.
As of last Thursday, the supreme court has also made the decision that Transgender and Non-Binary people should not be forced to obtain surgery and sterlization in order to obtain legal gender recognition, to change of names and gender on documentation. This is the law in Norway and a few other places. Considering the discrimination in housing and employment that Transgender and Non-Binary people face which leads to poverty, it was onerous to demand that we pay for expensive surgeries before being guaranteed human rights protections.
Having full legal human rights protections will help people live more stable lives, get better jobs and earn more if they still or want to pay for surgery. Or NOT pay for surgery if they don’t want to have it.
The decision is still imperfect, since Taiwan’s identity and documentation system only provides “male” and “female”, when it should include at least a third option that other countries have. But it’s a big step in the proper direction.
Court Rules Against Laws Requiring Proof of Surgery, Sterilization for Changing Legal Gender
THE TAIPEI HIGH Administrative Court ruled against laws requiring transgender people to provide proof of surgery to change their legal gender this afternoon [September 23]. The announcement was made shortly after 4 PM, with a decision in favor of the plaintiff, known as Xiao E.
Xiao E was represented by the Taiwan Alliance to Promote Civil Partnership Rights (TAPCPR), the organization that represented longtime LGBTQ activist Chi Chia-wei in the case that resulted in the legalization of gay marriage in Taiwan two years ago. Xiao E had filed a lawsuit after she was not allowed to change her gender from male to female on her national ID card without proof of surgery at the Daxi Household Registration Office in Taoyuan. This resulted in an administrative lawsuit being filed in March of this year, with the TAPCPR announcing a petition on the issue on April 1st, timed to coincide with International Trans Day of Visibility. The TAPCPR will hold a formal press conference on the ruling tomorrow morning.
Previous laws required proof of surgery in order to be allowed to legally change one’s gender, which included specifying what body parts needed to be surgically removed to qualify for being able to legally change one’s gender. Transgender women were required to surgically remove their penis and testicles while transgender men were required to surgically remove their breasts, uterus, and ovaries. A mental health evaluation from two psychiatric specialists was also required.
Nevertheless, one notes that ROC law demonstrates a highly biological view of gender, when many transgender individuals may identify as a different gender than that which they were identified at birth but may not wish to undergo surgery. Previous laws also necessitated the sterilization of those that wished to legally change their gender, as well as imposing the cost of surgery upon them.
To this extent, the TAPCPR argued that the surgery requirement was in defiance of international human rights conventions that Taiwan has ratified, such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, International Covenant on Economic Social and Cultural Rights, and Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women. The TAPCPR further pointed to legal precedents elsewhere, such as in the European Union, in which the European Court of Human Rights struck down similar regulations on the basis that they violated human rights protections. For its part, the Ministry of the Interior’s interpretation asserted the right to equality, privacy, and personal freedoms protections with regards to the ruling.
I have a suspicion this ruling will only apply to Taiwanese citizens, not to foreigners with ARCs and APRCs. Even so, I’m happy that people will now have legal protections when it comes to employment, housing and other places they often face discrimination.
New Bloom Mag (a Taiwan LGBTQ+ publication) posted a follow up item on Friday:
LGBTQ+ Groups Celebrate Ruling Against Surgery Requirement for Legal Gender Change
THIS MORNING AT 10:00 AM, the Taiwan Alliance to Promote Civil Partnership Rights (TAPCPR) hosted a press conference regarding yesterday afternoon’s Taipei High Administrative Court ruling against regulations requiring proof of surgical intervention to change one’s legal gender. The historic ruling in favor of plaintiff Xiao E found existing legal gender change regulations to be unconstitutional. Assuming that this ruling does not get appealed, Xiao E will be able to change her legal gender and become Taiwan’s first transgender woman to do so without submitting proof of surgery.
[. . .]
[T]he Taipei High Administrative Court will issue formal written judgments to both parties within two weeks. The Daxi Household Registration Office can submit an appeal to the Supreme Administrative Court within twenty days upon receiving the written judgment. Press conference participants speculate that it is unlikely that yesterday’s ruling will get appealed since government officials have already expressed their support for eliminating the surgery requirement for changing one’s legal gender.
How badly will the heads of TERFs and other bigoted scum explode over this one? Or are they too busy spreading hateful propaganda to notice?
The TERFs and bigots certainly haven’t noticed that all of the known or rumoured sexual predators and rapists in Taiwan (Taiwanese and foreigners) have been cishetero binary males.
A year ago, I wrote a post (“Sources Named: Who I quote and why“) explaining how and why I choose my sources. I want to know something is an original source, or a retelling or re-reporting. Sometimes, the source ends up being fifth hand, with very different wording or meaning than the original. It ends up being a game of telegraph rather than telephone.
I also said I prefer scientific sources or university publication over news sources. Commercial news likes to embellish, either to sell fear or false hope rather than print boring facts. When was the last time you saw “study reconfirms theory”? An item from the past week shows why I do this.
Taiwan News is “journalism” on par with The Express (UK) or “weekly world news”. I don’t believe anything TN posts, even when it goes back to the original source and its hard to get wrong (e.g. earthquake reports). So when they published an item last week (9/23) about a “cure for diabetes”, my immediate response was, “Yeah, right.”
Taiwanese scientists discover potential cure for diabetes
Taiwanese scientists have discovered a key mechanism that causes diabetes and developed a new drug treatment that could “fully reverse” the disease, according to reports.
Diabetes has been shown to be caused by the loss and function of Beta cells (β-cells) in pancreatic islets, which are regions of the pancreas that contain hormone-producing cells. Yang Wen-chin (楊文欽) and his team at Academia Sinica’s Agricultural Biotechnology Research Center (ABRC) have discovered through experiments on mice that the protein-coding gene, Pdia4 (Protein Disulfide Isomerase Family A Member 4), is responsible for the destruction of β-cells and that inhibiting this gene can prevent and even reverse the loss of such cells.
The so-called “news” mentions a couple of names, but zero sources. I’ve been waiting for a better report, and actively seeking scientific papers to see how wrong Taiwan News was.
On Saturday (9/25), the Taipei Times showed why sources matter. Not only do they more accurately call this a treatment for diabetes, not a “cure”, they also cite the scientific publication where it was published. Now I consider this a credible story.
Study finds diabetes-linked gene
Taiwanese researchers have identified a gene that they say might help doctors treat diabetes.
A study by a research team at Academia Sinica’s Agricultural Biotechnology Research Center showed that the expression of protein disulfide isomerase family A member 4 (PDIA4) is linked to diabetes.
The research was published in this month’s issue of EMBO Molecular Medicine, an open-source, peer-reviewed scientific journal based in Europe.
Details make a difference – who wrote it, where it’s published, and how to find it and then read it. The details of the paper are waaayyy over my head (though I’m sure PZM understands it), but you can get the gist of it from the abstract (page 1 of the PDF, and below) and Paper Explained (page 19):
Pdia4 regulates β-cell pathogenesis in diabetes: molecular mechanism and targeted therapy
Abstract
Loss of β-cell number and function is a hallmark of diabetes. β-cell preservation is emerging as a promising strategy to treat and reverse diabetes. Here, we first found that Pdia4 was primarily expressed in β-cells. This expression was up-regulated in β-cells and blood of mice in response to excess nutrients. Ablation of Pdia4 alleviated diabetes as shown by reduced islet destruction, blood glucose and HbA1c, reactive oxygen species (ROS), and increased insulin secretion in diabetic mice. Strikingly, this ablation alone or in combination with food reduction could fully reverse diabetes. Conversely, overexpression of Pdia4 had the opposite pathophysiological outcomes in the mice. In addition, Pdia4 positively regulated β-cell death, dysfunction, and ROS production. Mechanistic studies demonstrated that Pdia4 increased ROS content in β-cells via its action on the pathway of Ndufs3 and p22phox. Finally, we found that 2-b-D-glucopyranosyloxy1-hydroxytrideca 5,7,9,11-tetrayne(GHTT), a Pdia4 inhibitor, suppressed diabetic development in diabetic mice. These findings characterize Pdia4 as a crucial regulator of β-cell pathogenesis and diabetes, suggesting Pdia4 is a novel therapeutic and diagnostic target of diabetes.
I said nineteen months ago I would amend, update, and link to the 2020 post on the main page. Oops.
Yes, another post about music, but this goes in a different direction.
I love music and musicianship. Some people bristle when I say, “If it’s not made with instruments or a cappella, it’s not music.” I prefer people who can recreate their work live, alone or in a group, not by “scratching” or “sampling”. Because of this, nearly everything I listen to is individuals or groups who play, very little electronica.
Nearly all of the new musicians I’ve started listening to in the last few years are independent groups found on youtube, people creating new work or younger people doing covers of other bands, and they’re genuinely good. Unintentionally, most of them are women, which is even more exciting, seeing musicians who would normally be ignored or mistreated by record companies and the media. Youtube and other social media lets them find an audience they couldn’t reach otherwise and control their own content and public image.
An example of being mistreated is a group I hadn’t heard of until two years ago: Fanny, whose first album came out in 1971, fifty years ago (video: trailer for the documentary about their career). They were a fearsome foursome of women, two Filipina-American sisters and two Americans, with great talent. Unfortunately, sexism in the music industry weighed on them and the band came to an end by the mid-1970s. Listen to a few of their songs and find a new/old instant favourites.
Below the fold is a list new musicians I listen to and links to their music. But it’s not just the music that’s interesting, it’s the response of the public. It ain’t the 1970s anymore.
“Don’t read the comments” is the universal warning whenever women are writing or talking, but that doesn’t apply when it’s women musicians. DO read the comments. Sexist and dismissive comments by men are the exception, not the norm, when women are great players. (Then again, male music heads are different from typical fanboys.) And it’s not just sexism that disappears, so does racism; one of them (listed below) is MelSickScreamoAnnie, a teenage muslim from Indonesia (listed below) who plays covers of Death Metal and Thrash Metal. She’s great.
This is NOT to suggest that women should have to be great musicians or be obviously and visibly skilled in their field to be respected. That should be the default position, women shouldn’t have to “prove” or be challenged by toxic males in any job or field. But it does show that men can treat women with respect for their ability, not automatically “challenge” women simply for being.
If a nurse or doctor has a job at a hospital, or teaching at a university, it means she’s qualified, end of discussion. If a woman is doing a public speaking event, it means she has the knowledge and qualifications to get an invite. And even if she’s working a 9 to 5 sales clerk job, that’s still no reason.
More below.