Guess Work: Numberphile looks at the derivatives that matter


Unlike Cheetolini who only cares about Wall Street derivatives, Numberphile thinks in human terms and talks about the spread.  These are not predictions because they lack important variables (e.g. how quickly transmission occurs) but it shows the average viewer how predictions are made.

I’ve done simuations in college, but these equations are over my head.

Comments

  1. blf says

    I haven’t watched the video (yet), so please excuse me if this comment is “redundant”, but I’ve been linking to this chart,
    https://voxeu.org/sites/default/files/Flatten%20the%20curve%20mine.png
    which is part of this article, It’s not exponential: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve, to explain a number of points (especially, but not exclusively, “flattening the curve”).

    (I just did another search for good charts / diagrams, and found several candiates — still to be evaluated more closely — but at first glance, the above chart is still among the best to illustrate “flattening the curve”. One criticism of it is it suggests — by visual inspection — the areas under both the flattened and non-flatten curves would be about the same; as far as I know, that does not follow (and is probably mostly because the chart is an illustration, not a precise graph).)

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