Ordering delivery of small items

When surfing the web, one invariably comes across instances where there is a heated discussion over what one might consider a trivial issue. This then leads to thumb-sucking articles (such as this blog post) about What It All Means and What It Says About Our Society. One has to be a little wary of this tendency because it is always possible to find some extreme behavior on the internet and then treat it as if it were more common than it actually is and then draw Deep Conclusions.

I find such brouhahas faintly amusing and even a welcome distraction from the depressing major news that seems to now be part of our daily lives. One such case was the one I linked to recently about a DoorDash driver who was angry at the size of the tip given for delivery of one cup of coffee. Apart from the issue of the tip, I was bemused by someone actually ordering delivery of a single cup of coffee. Whether you like your coffee hot or ice-cold, surely by the time it reaches you, its temperature would have changed somewhat from its initial value to make it less pleasurable?
[Read more…]

South Park trolls Kristi Noem and ICE

In a recent episode, the animated comedy show South Park severely trolled puppy murderer Kristi Noem, the head of the department of homeland security.

Two weeks ago, South Park kicked off its 27th season with one of its angriest, most politically daring episodes. The animated sitcom, long a magnet for controversy, incurred the wrath of the current US administration for its brutal and graphic send-up of Donald Trump as a petty, micro-penised dictator, as well as parent company Paramount’s cowardly capitulations to him.
…

All of this is to say that the new episode, titled Got a Nut, is coming in hot. And for the most part, it lives up to the hype.

The episode follows two different stories: in one, the show’s resident bigot, Eric Cartman, is outraged to learn that fellow fourth grader Clyde has risen to prominence as a white nationalist podcaster who makes offensive claims about women, Jewish people, Black people and other minority groups to goad them into debating him in exploitative viral videos (“WOKE STUDENT TOTALLY PWNED”). Of course, Cartman isn’t angry on behalf of any of those groups; he’s mad that Clyde is ripping off his gimmick and reaping all the rewards. He decides to muscle in on the act, styling his hair after Kirk’s signature coif (“the stupidest haircut I’ve ever seen,” says one character), trolling college girls on social media and proclaiming himself a “master-debater”.
[Read more…]

Cooking next month’s jobs numbers is not going to be easy

Following the dismal jobs numbers that were released last Friday, Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erika McEntarfer, accusing her (without any evidence of course) of cooking the books to get low growth numbers in order to make him look bad.

These jobs numbers are used by the Federal Reserve as one measure in its efforts to control inflation, and are also used by the broader business and investment communities to gauge the state of the economy and make appropriate decisions. Hence it is important that they see these numbers as credible as otherwise they are useless. Up until now, the BLS has been seen as credible. Following McEntarfer’s firing, the BLS is temporarily being run by Bill Wiatrowski, the deputy commissioner, who is a career professional with the agency, until Trump appoints a new commissioner. But Trump’s action has resulted in the credibility of the BLS being seriously undermined, irrespective of whatever the new permanent head does or however sterling their reputation, because that person will have the taint of being seen as being ordered by Trump to get good numbers in the future. The only way that person will be able to gain some credibility is if the August jobs numbers (that will be released on Friday, September 5) are really terrible. If they are middling or good, people will strongly suspect that the numbers have been fudged, unless it can be shown to the contrary.

But manipulating the numbers of such a massive operation without it being obvious that you are doing so is not at all easy and Trump is stupid if he thinks that whatever lackey he appoints to that position can simply replace one set of numbers in the final report and replace them with new ones. It is going to be a very tricky process.
[Read more…]

Is there a middle ground between atheism and theism?

To me the answer is ‘no’ but the title of this post was suggested by this essay by Philip Goff, a professor of philosophy, who clearly wants to find one. The subheading says, “Neither atheism nor theism adequately explains reality. That is why we must consider the middle ground between the two.”

Goff says that he was brought up as a Catholic but started identifying himself as an atheist at the age of 14 and was comfortable with it for about two decades. Then about five years ago, he had to teach a course on the philosophy of religion that required him to present the arguments for and against God. In doing so he says that he found the arguments for God “incredibly compelling too! In particular, the argument from the fine-tuning of physics for life couldn’t be responded to as easily as I had previously thought.”

A few weeks into this existential morass I was peacefully watching some ducks quack in a nearby nature reserve, when I suddenly realised there was a startingly simple and obvious solution to my dilemma. The two arguments I was finding compelling – the fine-tuning argument for ‘God’, and the argument from evil and suffering against ‘God’ – were not actually opposed to each other. The argument from evil and suffering targets a very specific kind of God, namely the Omni-God: all-knowing, all-powerful, perfectly good creator of the universe. Meanwhile, the fine-tuning argument supports something much more generic, some kind of cosmic purpose or goal-directedness towards life that might not be attached to a supernatural designer. So if you go for cosmic purpose but not one rooted in the desires of an Omni-God, then you can have your cake and eat it by accepting both arguments.

And thus my worldview was radically changed.
[Read more…]

Trump will send the economy into a tailspin

The US economy is huge and like anything huge, it has a lot of inertia which makes it slow to respond to external forces. Since Trump has come into office, he has made sweeping and reckless economic moves that are not based on reality-based analyses but more on his pet theories, revenge against perceived wrongs, and sheer capriciousness, all designed to satisfy his need to be a bully. The tariffs have been his primary vehicle for the last feature and it has thrown global markets and trade relationships into turmoil. It was inevitable that this would lead to negative impacts on the economy but until this month, those consequences had not manifested themselves.

The July jobs report may be the first indicator. What was alarming was not the numbers for July itself but the steep downward revisions for May and June, which reduced the job growth to almost zero, usually a sign of an impending recession. Trump has responded angrily, as usual denying any fact that shows him in a bad light, claiming that the numbers were rigged against him, and firing Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Needless to say, this has alarmed pretty much everyone outside the Trump cult because whatever crackpot economic theory you may be using, you still need accurate data to make decisions. If you appoint someone who will only give you numbers you want to hear, you enter a very vicious spiral indeed. Trump’s team has fanned out with a media blitz to try and minimize the damage of the jobs report but pretty much everyone in the reality-based world is alarmed by these moves, including some Republicans.
[Read more…]

Confabulation, dementia, and Trump

Those of us in the reality-based world face a challenge in the current US political climate. Trump and his cult followers can say anything they like without feeling the need to provide a shred of evidence in support. On the other hand, we feel that we need to provide at least some evidence for any claim.

The most recent example of this is Trump’s claim that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has rigged the latest appalling jobs numbers report to make him and Republicans look bad. Not only that, he said that the head of the bureau had faked the numbers even last year to make the economy under Joe Biden look good.

Contrast this with the increasing suspicion that Trump is suffering from severe cognitive deterioration, that he might already be in the throes of dementia. Most people will hesitate to openly say this because dementia is a medical condition that needs to be diagnosed by a professional.

But a conservative Republican attorney by the name of Chris Truax says that the evidence of Trump’s dementia has become so obvious that pretty much anyone, and definitely those who have had loved ones suffer from it, should be able to recognize it easily, especially the confabulation. He says that the kind of confabulation that Trump is demonstrating goes well beyond the more common problems of misremembering past events or conflating distinct events into one.
[Read more…]

Time to fire the Bureau of Labor statisticians?

The title of this blog post was the first thing that popped into my mind when I saw the latest terrible jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The US economy added 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected, amid ongoing concerns with Donald Trump’s escalating trade war.

Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted the July jobs report would show a drop in added jobs to around 109,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in June.

The Bureau of Labor also slashed the number of jobs added in recent months. May’s jobs figure was revised down by 125,000, from 144,000 to 19,000, and June was revised down by 133,000, from 147,000 to 14,000 – a combined 258,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

Guardian graphicSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs.

[Read more…]

How Brazil came so close to a coup

Brazil is a good example of how Trump thinks that he can use the power of the US government to pursue his personal vendettas. In this case, he is imposing tariffs on that country because it is prosecuting the former president Jair Bolsonaro for fomenting a coup in that country following his defeat in the 2022 presidential election to Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro and his family have been assiduously cultivating close ties with Trump and hope that it will pay off with him using the US to get him released.

Allies of Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, have accused Donald Trump of launching “a direct attack on Brazilian democracy” after the US treasury slapped sanctions on Alexandre de Moraes, the supreme court judge widely credited with helping save Brazilian democracy from a 2022 rightwing coup.

The highly controversial US move was announced on Wednesday by the secretary of the treasury, Scott Bessent, shortly before Trump followed through on a threat to hit Brazilian imports with 50% tariffs by signing an executive order “to deal with the recent policies, practices, and actions by the government of Brazil”.

Trump has partly attributed those tariffs to his outrage at the supposed political “witch-hunt” against his far-right ally the former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who is on trial for allegedly seeking to seize power after losing the 2022 presidential election to Lula.

Moraes is presiding over the trial, which is widely expected to result in Bolsonaro being convicted and sentenced to up to 43 years in jail, as well as several other criminal investigations into Bolsonaro and his family.

[Read more…]

“What’d he say? Blessed are the cheesemakers?”

The Scots know how to amusingly mock Trump during his impromptu press conference in Scotland.