I don’t like theocracies, and it doesn’t matter whether they’re the Islamic Iranian kind or the Christian American kind, but Iran has a right to exist, and they are the victims of a surprise attack by Israel (aided by an American distraction). Unfortunately, America is led by an idiot who is demanding unconditional surrender
and is itching to get involved on the wrong side — we might find ourselves involved in another pointless war for regime change in the Middle East.
I think we need a debate, and I found one: one side takes the position that “This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism,” while the other side says “No It Won’t.”
A little problem, though, is that it’s the Onion. No one takes them seriously.
Another small problem is that debate is from 2003, and they’re arguing about the Iraq War.
You’d think we’d have learned our lesson…but deja vu, man, deja vu.
Unsurprisingly—given the sheer incompetence of our current regime—the Onion is proving itself to be an accurate predictor of future events (spicy language) and descriptor of current ones.
Sorry, I have to disagree here. I never in my life thought I would ever type these words, but for once I agree with Israel.
The mullahs cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons. They just can’t. Nuclear weapons in the hands of the current Iranian regime would pose an existential threat to the entire Middle East and potentially the whole world. So whatever has to be done to keep that from happening, do it.
That does not mean that I agree in all respects with everything Israel and Trump are doing; I don’t. And the timing is suspicious since it deflects from Netanyahu’s domestic political troubles. But at some point or other, this war was going to happen, so let’s get it over with. Hopefully it will have the side benefit of removing the mullahs from power.
Netanyahu has been announcing the imminent production of nuclear weapons by Iran for at least the last 20 years — he’s been a lot like Elon Musk, declaring a breakthrough in a year or two years, and then the time passes, and nothing happens. US intelligence has said that they are not producing nuclear bombs.
This is clearly a domestic political ploy to shore up Bibi’s position…a ploy that will cost thousands of lives, on all sides.
Also, if you want to encourage Iran to build nuclear weapons, this is exactly how you do it.
@freeline: Iran is a signatory of the non-proliferation treaty, which entitles it to develop nuclear energy. Israel is not a signatory and has nuclear weapons.
Supporting a rogue nuclear state as it bombs nuclear energy programs in treaty members is the quickest way to unravel the entire non-proliferation treaty.
Ok, but the difference between Israel/the US on the one hand, and Iran on the other, is that neither Israel nor the US is actually using their nuclear weapons and have a policy of not using them except in response to a nuclear threat from someone else. I have no such confidence that Iran would do the same. Yes, the US and Israel are both abominable actors, but they haven’t used their nuclear arsenals and there’s no reason to think they will.
Iran, on the other hand, is run not just by theocrats, but completely insane theocrats who see installing Islamic fascism world wide as their duty from God. They’ve already said they want Israel destroyed by any means necessary. And they’re not afraid of death; they get 70 virgins when they do.
So disagree with me if you like, but my view is that the stakes are too high to allow Iran to have nuclear weapons. Allowing them to have nuclear weapons would probably guarantee a nuclear war. I don’t trust that they’re just generating nuclear energy; why do they need nuclear energy with all that oil?
Two comments:
A people is not identical to its government. And vice versa. Ponder the concept of the “good German” for a moment.
Sometimes, both governments — especially when the dispute involves nukes, religion, and/or ethnic determinacy — deserve to lose. This time around, the governments of Israel and Iran both deserve to lose. Unfortunately, in reality that means an awful lot of non-governmental people are going to become minimal, entirely acceptable civilian casualties while those governments seek to narrow the mineshaft gap. (Each government is somewhere between “rhetorically committed to” and “truly, deeply believing” that it is on the short end of mineshaft capacity.)
@freeline
With respect, you have no fucking idea what you are talking about.
They said that about North Korea too.
They also said that about Pakistan, a nation a lot like Iran with a mortal enemy right next to them, which is India.
They said that about South Africa, at the time run by white racists determined to rule over a nation that was 90% nonwhite. They set up a nuclear bomb program and made 4 nuclear weapons. Almost certainly with Israel’s help.
The point here is that…we have never been able to stop a nation from building nuclear weapons if they want to badly enough.
By attacking Iran, the Isrealis have made nuclear weapons go from an option to a necessity.
Everyone knows that no one attacks nations with nuclear weapons.
Ask the North Koreans how that works.
@freeline: I broadly agree with lasius, but on the last point: this is not a mystery.
In the 70s, Iran proposed to the US that it wanted to develop nuclear energy so that it could reduce its domestic consumption of oil and be able to export more. Henry Kissinger agreed that this was a good idea and promised support for the endeavor.
I have a near-overwhelming fear that Trump is going to break a taboo before this ‘Israel/Iran conflict’ is ‘over’. (Which Putin will perceive as room for a bit of taboo-breaking of his own.) Hopefully this is just my paranoia working overtime.
@freeline: The US has been the only government to use two nuclear weapons, in the biggest terrorist attack the world has ever seen. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki! The most moral nation on the planet/s
No. 7, so enlighten me.
Raven, No. 8, I would be happy if nobody had nuclear weapons. I am far from enthusiastic about Trump having them. And it’s possible that Iran may someday too. But that doesn’t mean we don’t at least try to prevent the damage from spreading. If every violent street gang in the city except one has guns, that doesn’t mean you give them to the one deprived street gang who doesn’t have them. Even if they will eventually get them elsewhere. No, you recognize that the fewer guns out there, the less violence there will be.
Like everyone, I’ve been following the new Israel-Iran war and am appalled.
A new middle east war.
What could go wrong?
We’ve had many middle east wars and they never accomplish anything worthwhile.
The last two US wars were Afghanistan and Iraq and they were mistakes.
What strikes me though is how weak Iran is.
They are or were paper tigers.
.1. They don’t seem to have much in the way of air defenses so the Israelis can bomb them at will.
.2. They’ve lost most of their military leadership to Israeli air strikes.
It should be trivial to protect them, just move them to secure locations underground.
.3. They don’t have much in the way of ability to retaliate against Israel.
Already they are looking for a way out.
AFAICT, this is due to the corruption and immense incompetence of their Islamic leadership.
.1. They isolated themselves from the rest of the world.
They also antagonized most of the rest of the world.
Their allies are Russia, China, and North Korea, not exactly the best countries in the world.
.2. They didn’t do much to develop a modern industrial society.
It took them decades to build an oil refinery. This is old tech developed in the 1920s.
One problem is that they drove a lot of their educated people out including the engineering professionals that could design and build facilities like that.
.3. The theocratic Islamists that run the country, aren’t popular.
They’ve lost the support of the people.
They are ruling by force, not consent.
About all this says, is that what the Iranian Theocratic regime has sown, they are now reaping.
Sow incompetence, reap failure.
(The USA under Trump is doing the exact same thing.)
The US is the only country that has ever used nuclear weapons. Did you miss that bit in history class?
As for the rest of your assertions – are you too young to remember the last time people rolled out the exact same arguments to justify what turned out to be a completely disastrous war on false pretences, or are you just a fucking idiot?
If Iran has weapons grade uranium, I am sure it is not stockpiled at their enrichment facility.
Dunc, No. 13, that was 80 years ago. Got anything recent to talk about? After seeing the damage they did, Truman instituted a policy that they would only be used in self defense, despite the Pentagon wanting to use them in Korea, a policy that remains in place to this day.
And there’s far better evidence that iran is trying to build nuclear weapons than there was for WMD in Iraq.
@11 freeline
Well for one thing, the 72 (not 70, couldn’t even get that right) virgins thing is an islamophobic myth and even so, it is based on Sunni teachings. The Iranian regime is Shiite.
freeline,
@2
But you’re less bothered about Israel having them – the state currently committing genocide in Gaza, the state which has been blatantly breaking international law for decades by annexing and settling territory acquired in war, the state which recently took advantage of the overthow of the Syrian tyrant to bomb Syria, the state which has just launched a war of aggression on the false pretext that it was about to build nuclear weapons, when the US intelligence establishment says it had made no decision to do so and was at least 3 years from being able to build a deliverable bomb if it wanted to. Khamenei (vile piece of shit that he is in other respects) actually issued a fatwa against the development and possession of nuclear weapons decades ago. If the regime survives the Israeli (and potentially American) onslaught, it’s only too likely this will go by the board – and if it falls, any successor regime might well decide that recent events show that Iran needs nukes a.s.a.p. – as might any number of other states around the world.
@2
Yes indeedy. I mean, bombing a tyrant out of power always has a beneficial outcome, doesn’t it – just look at how happy and peaceful Libya is today.
@11
Really? If Iran had already had nukes, would Israel have attacked it? That would have been less violence than there is at present, wouldn’t it? Any attack by a nuclear-armed state on a non-nuclear-armed state (like that of Russia on Ukraine, and now of Israel on Iran) gives the clear message, not just to the state attacked but to all others with the potential – get nukes, stat.
In 2003 Netanyahu found a useful idiot to bomb Iraq for him and cause regime change. Now he’s found another one in Trump to do the same to Iran.
Read somewhere Jake Tapper was regretting falling for the WMD lies by the US government at the time. Have not heard him come out to point out that the same lies are being spread now. Tulsi Gabbard, clearly the sanest person in Trump’s government (let that sink in), said in March there was no nuclear bomb threat.
raven @12,
“What strikes me though is how weak Iran is.”
You’re being lied to. People recording damage in Israel are being arrested, journalists are ordered not to show any of their footage of damage.
The other thing worth mentioning is, Iran was ready to declare not to go for nuclear weapons, but then Israel killed the people who were going to negotiate with the US with precision missiles last week.
And Netanyahu must have known this – and, with Israel’s deep penetration of the Iranian establishement, made clear by their ability to assassinate multiple military leaders and nuclear scientists – must also have been well aware it was not close to developing nukes. Which makes it obvious that preventing thatr development was not the aim of their attack. Apart from sheer psychopathic bloodlust, the obvious explanation is that Netanyahu needs constant war in order to stay out of jail. So if Iran is completely defeated, he’ll find another victim.
No, there isn’t. There’s reasonable evidence the Iranian regime wants to be in a position where it could credibly threaten to develop nuclear weapons, and use this threat as a bargaining chip. The only “evidence” they are actually trying to build them comes from Israel. The US intelligence establishment says they are not.
Further to #20 – and incidentally, even if there were absolute certainty Iran was trying to build nukes, Israel’s attack would still be a blatant violation of international law. There is no right of pre-emptive attack.
lasius, No., 16, so it is both an Islamaphobic myth and also based on Sunni teachings?
KG, No. 17, did I say I wasn’t bothered by Israel having them? My preference is that nobody has them. And the rest of your post is basically the same argument we often hear and reject from Second Amendment types that the solution to a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.
KG, No 21, if you are seriously arguing that a nation faced with a viable threat has to sit on its hands and do nothing until the threat actually materializes, then we just disagree. At what point would you have permitted Israel to attack? When Iran actually has nukes pointed at Tel Aviv? When Iran has actually launched nukes against Tel Aviv?
@8 Actually, the US has a protocol to prevent Iran from ever getting a nuclear bomb.
It’s called Stuxnet. And it’s been extremely successful in preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.
https://www.ted.com/talks/ralph_langner_cracking_stuxnet_a_21st_century_cyber_weapon/transcript?language=en
More accurately, that was Stuxnet 1.
The second version of Stuxnet was just used to troll.
It is a strategy similar to dropping two nuclear bombs on Japan–the first, to show Japan and the rest of the world that the US won the nuclear race–we have the bomb! and the second was to show Japan (and the rest of the world) that we will keep bombing you until you surrender or until there is nothing left of your country to bomb.
It brought a decisive end to WWII. Which, to be clear, would have ended anyway, the Nagasaki and Hiroshima attacks just ended it sooner.
It started the nuclear threat clock and kicked off the Cold War and a race by other nations to get their own nuclear bomb.
While I wish that the planet had never discovered the nuclear bomb, much less used it, I am not so hypocritical as to mourn the outcome; my grandfather was a WWII vet (US Navy, Pacific theater) and dropping the Enola Gay probably saved his life.
The first use of Stuxnet prevented Iran from being able to develop a nuclear bomb. The subsequent uses were to let Iran know “we can kill your infrastructure anywhere, anytime, with targets and times of our choosing”.
TL:DR It was never necessary to drop bombs on Natanz or more broadly, Iran, to prevent Iran from developing their own nuclear bomb. The current attack is all Bibi and nobody else but Bibi.
@9 Has Kissinger ever had a good idea? Ever?
@12 If the US was actually smart, we would have left the Iranian religious regime die at the hands of its own people. The problem with revolutions has always been getting the third generation to sign on to the ideals and ruling structure. Iran has shown quite clearly that they are fed up with the ayatollahs, witness the protests and periodic uprisings–remember Neda Agha-Soltan & Mahsa Amini? Iranian religious rule is crumbling; the only thing we should do is stay out of it and let the Iranian people do their thing. Hell, the whole reason that Iran has a nutjob religious regime is because the US and UK installed a corrupt regime of their choosing (the shah), which gave life to the Iranian revolution & installed the current asshats (after the US embassy hostage crisis).
@14 The nuclear stockpile wouldn’t be kept at Natanz, it would be kept at Bushehr.
KG @21
And we know we can trust them. They have a 100% track record of finding Hamas hiding under every hospital, school and random child that they bomb in Gaza.
@15: Actually, that the Iranians are almost certainly seeking to develop nuclear weapons is the one bit that I don’t disagree on. Where we part company is the chain of “reasoning” (for want of a better word) that proceeds from there, through the racist and Islamophobic belief that the Iranian leadership are a uniquely unreasonable bunch of suicidal / genocidal madmen, to the conclusion that yet another great big middle-east war (or at the very least, bombing the shit out of a bunch of people) is the best solution to the problem.
If you really want to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, I think you’d probably do rather better by (a) attempting to reduce their motivation, by stopping assassinating their leaders and threatening to destroy their country, and (b) re-engaging in the processes of diplomacy under international law that seemed to be doing a pretty good job of discouraging them from pursuing nuclear weapons development right up until Trump unilaterally flushed those agreements down the toilet.
You may even want to push the boat out and toy with the idea that you have no right to decide what an acceptable Iranian government looks like. Crazy talk, I know…
Finally, it would be really helpful if people could remember that Iran is a much larger and more militarily capable country than Iraq ever was, so any ideas of regime change through military action should bear that in mind. Please also bear in mind that the very best way anybody knows of to encourage a civilian population to rally around an otherwise unpopular leadership is the threat (or actuality) of external attack. So, if you think the Iranians would be better off with different leadership, launching military action against them is about the last thing you should do.
… we might find ourselves involved in another pointless war for regime change in the Middle East.
Except that at least two of the primary combatants have the cyber capability to shut down most of the US infrastructure, just for starters, and the military capacity to stop most of the oil flow to Europe, Africa, and Asia.
Then, the week after that…
… I’m … pro-Iran.
I certainly hope our esteemed host doesn’t plan on any air or international travels for the next several years.
Dunc, No. 26, the West has much to answer for in its horrible treatment of Iran, including the despicable coup the US and UK staged against its democratically elected prime minister in the 1950s. So if you think I see one side as pure and the other as evil, you are mistaken. But please don’t play the racist/Islamaphobic card because in this case it’s a cynical distraction from the very real problem of nuclear proliferation.
In point of fact, Iran has been exporting terrorist operations against the West for years, and while it is far from being the only country exporting terrorism, it’s up there. Its politicians get elected on a platform of destroying Israel and exterminating Jews. I’ve been there twice; there are signs on the highway going into Tehran that say — in English no less — death to America, death to Israel, America is our number one enemy. So perhaps Israel and the US are to be forgiven for taking Iran at its word and thinking that pulling out the stops to keep them from having the bomb is not the worst idea.
And while I agree that more carrots might help, I also believe that the current regime there thinks — along with Saudi Arabia — that its calling from God is to export jihad. Unless and until Western liberal values come to the region, which I do not see happening for a very long time, I don’t think that will change.
freeline@23,
No, and I didn’t say you did say that. I said you are less bothered by Israel having them, which you made absolutely clear @5:
So, stop distorting what I have said, and trying to weasel out of what you have said. I have absolutely no confidence that Israel and the USA will not use their nukes “except in response to a nuclear threat from someone else”. As far as the USA is concerned – Trump grumbled during his first term that it was pointless to have nukes if he couldn’t use them. Netanyahu would use them to stay in power and so out of jail. what’s more, Seymour Hersh, in his The Samson Option: Israel, America and the Bomb, provides evidence that the Israeli government threatened the US government that it would use nuclear weapons against its Arab foes in the 1973 war, unless the USA began an immediate resupply airlift. WTF is your confidence based on?
Weak sauce. Do you dispute that if Iran had had nukes, Israel would not have attacked it? Or that if Ukraine had had them, Putin would not have invaded it? Answer the point I made, if you can, rather than trying to change the subject. I make this point most reluctantly, having been a proponent of UK unilateral nuclear disarmament for more than half a century. I would add that if Saddam Hussein had had WDMs, Iraq would not have been invaded in 2003, at least with the insouciance it was. (It’s clear that the USA and UK knew he hadn’t got anything useable in the way of chemical weapons, or they would not have assembled their troops where he could easily have attacked them with such weapons.)
The point I was making was about international law, which is absolutely clear: pre-emptive attack is forbidden under the UN Charter, to which Israel is signatory. Israel has nukes pointed at Iran – so why would Iran not have been entitled to attack Israel if it could, to destroy Israel’s nuclear capability? Everything you say just confirms that you privilege Israel, giving it the right to wage aggressive war, which you deny to Iran. I deny it to both, and to all other states.
@ 18
@19, 26 Iran is weak.
The various embargoes have done their job. Iran can’t trade with much of the world or get replacements for a lot of their crumbling infrastructure. Iran has to work through proxies like Syria, as opposed to direct attack. The religious regime is crumbling. People in the more distant districts attack the mullahs (notably, in one case, by schoolgirls, after said mullah yelled at them for not sufficiently covering their hair. They kicked and punched him.) The religious regime is and always was a kleptocracy and the rank & file Iranians are fed up with it. Iran has tried for decades to build their own bomb, unsuccessfully.
IOW, they were playing a weak hand to the best of their ability to get something out of what was otherwise a losing hand.
The US put their thumb on the scale with Stuxnet. Iran was never going to get enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb because we keep destroying their centrifuges. With the embargoes, replacements aren’t exactly easy to come by. So Iran was willing to ink a deal to ostensibly give up a thing they were never going to get anyway in return for something, on the premise that getting something is better than getting nothing. In many ways, a nation having nuclear weapon capabilities is a relic of a bygone era–the future of warfare is drones and cyberterrorism. Also, any nation that drops a nuclear bomb in this day and age risks getting bombed by all the other nuclear nations. Israel has nuclear bombs, but has not used them–ask yourself why that is. Bibi is not a popular guy in Israel–he needed a war, preferably multiple wars–to stay in power and out of prison, because the Israelis are doing exactly what the Iranians are doing–coalescing around a detested leader in the face of an external threat.
I don’t doubt for a minute that Bibi is suppressing the free press & others from showing the actual destruction and death in Israel. The Iron Dome is imperfect, the US pointed this out to Reagan in his halfassed Star Wars program that never worked in the first place. It’s impressive that it has worked as well as it has but it was never going to have a perfect defense record.
@23
It can be a myth based on religious teachings in exactly the same way that the US has a myth that white colonists created the US out of grit and hard work. It’s partially true, in the sense that white colonists did sail to North America, and at least some of them worked hard and started colonies, 13 of which would start a revolution that established the US. The myth part comes from the fact that the early US economy was heavily based on African slave labor and biowarfare to wipe out the indigenous people (notably deliberately spreading smallpox via trade blankets into the indigenous tribes/nations.) 1619 Project is A Thing.
For over a year, our website has stated – we know, have worked with, and respect many decent Jews and Muslims. However, we condemn the immoral, corrupt, warmongering of the israeli government, hamas and militants of ANY political and religious bodies.
I hope the magat ‘taco’s’ it (blusters for the publicity, but chickens out on starting WWIII). Our government is run by a bunch of fascist, warmongering, xtian terrorist chicken hawks! I have NO respect for them.
Also, I hate the obscene hypocrisy of naziyahoo: they have nuclear weapons, Iran complied with years of international inspection and didn’t develop a nuclear weapon.
I hope the magat and naziyahoo and the iranian extremist supreme leader and all the cockroaches under them Crawl Off And Die!
@29 freeline wrote: In point of fact, Iran has been exporting terrorist operations against the West for years,
I reply: That is true to some extent. Here is additional, more complete perspective: israel has had their own terrorists in, and coercing, our government and has had cyber weapons active in the united states for years, too!
@30
Israel preemptively attacked the Iran Osirak nuclear facility on the flimsy premise that Iran was only a month away from getting the bomb. They were criticized worldwide, rebuked by the UN Security Council and the general assembly. The US withheld shipments of F-16 fighters in response, stating that they couldn’t be sure that Israel wouldn’t use them in a preemptive strike, instead of in self-defense only, which were terms of the sale.
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/iraq-nuclear-vault/2021-06-07/osirak-israels-strike-iraqs-nuclear-reactor-40-years-later
It’s worth noting that Israel hasn’t really tried that since. The current war is being fought with Israeli weapons only, because they are completely fucked if the US decides to withhold shipments of munitions and planes.
It’s also worth noting that Israel violated Jordanian airspace twice–once on the way to bomb Osirak and a second time on the return trip. Jordan ostensibly squawked about their sovereignty being violated and then… nothing. They didn’t even bother to hiss at Israel, because Iran is majority Shia, surrounded by Sunni neighbors who don’t like it very much. All of which means that Israel is unlikely to face a lot of pushback or retribution in the geographic region from the other Islamic nations.
Trump is a senile moron who wanted to use nuclear bombs against a storm. Even Dubya wasn’t that dumb.
@29
They tend to operate through willing proxies. Otherwise, they’re barely a blip on the radar. 15 or the 19 9-11 terrorists came from Saudi Arabia but trained & took refuge in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Saudi Arabia assassinated Jamal Khashoggi in a Turkish embassy. Pakistan gave shelter to OBL down the street from their premier military academy. As state-sponsored terrorists, Iran is pretty far down the list. The concern with Iran is with it acting as a nation, not as a shelter for terrorists.
Yeah, those free and fair elections in which the hated religious regime installs new sock puppets? The ones where the current regime removes all the opposition candidates from the polls, if they don’t imprison or execute them first? How exactly did you manage to miss the public executions, floggings and amputations while you were in the country?
I’s sure those billboards made all the difference in the rigged election outcomes.
OK, KG, I am less bothered by someone with a .06 blood alcohol content getting behind the wheel of a Mack truck than I am by someone with a 1.2 blood alcohol content getting behind the wheel of a Mack truck, but I’m not really enthusiastic about either one. The one with the lower BAC is less likely to kill someone. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen; the 1.2 might get home safe and sound, and the .06 might kill ten people. But we’re playing with statistical probabilities here, and Iran is far more likely, in my view, to use nuclear weapons than Israel is.
If I had my druthers, Israel wouldn’t have them either. But the fact that they do is not a reason to tell the guy who’s at .06 to have another cocktail before he goes home. Or to try to keep him from driving if you can.
I would be good with Iran preemptively taking out Israel’s nuclear weapons if it had the ability to do so. I’m not privileging anyone. You’re just using the standard rhetorical trick of crying “privilege” to try to get people who disagree with you to shut up.
And I’m not up enough on international law to argue with you, but I would find it hard to believe that nations are expected to be sitting ducks until someone actually attacks them first. That makes absolutely no sense. So again, I would ask, at what point is a nation allowed to defend itself from a threat?
And since I wasn’t privy to the 1973 conversations between Golda Meir and Richard Nixon, I don’t know if she was bluffing or if she actually would have used them. But the question in this case is why would Israel want to attack Iran in the first place if Iran didn’t pose a threat? After 70 years of terrorism, four wars, and now 10/7, perhaps Israel is to be forgiven for taking security threats seriously. If you were the prime minister of Israel, what would you do instead?
No. 34, did I say that Iran has free and fair elections? Of course not. Neither did the old Soviet Union, but you still have candidates running on platforms, and the platform most of the run on is exterminating Jews.
@32
Actually, they didn’t. They prevented international inspectors from going to the suspected sites when they arrived, then refused to allow them to fully inspect the facilities in question–they were only allowed limited access.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1164291
https://apnews.com/article/iran-iaea-us-nuclear-talks-inspectors-585750d54eea24ed39f229b701313998
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/12/iran-nuclear-breach-iaea-un-watchdog/
It isn’t the first time that Iran has refused to let international inspectors in to do their job either.
@36 Wow. Way to miss the point.
If the elections are predetermined (and they unquestionably are) then sloganeering billboards don’t really make a difference, do they?
Maybe it’s because there are Jews who hate Muslims just like there are Muslims who hate Jews? While the religious right doesn’t run Israel the way it does in Iran, the Israeli version does have a pretty strong grip on the Israeli government.
Other reasons are listed in previous posts, I suggest you read them.
Well for starters, I would have signed the normalization documents to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia instead of blowing up the process with the Gaza war. Normalizing relations with a willing Saudi Arabia means that the other OPEC and Sunni nations would likely follow suit, leaving Iran, Syra & Gaza isolated and friendless, without allies or support. Not a position of strength in which to start a war. Gaining allies or at least signatories to treaties is how you prevent wars and terrorist attacks. It’s worked pretty well with Egypt. It’s how you bring peace and security to Israel. Also to the wider region.
Bibi was notified months in advance of both brewing tensions in Gaza AND the vulnerabilities of the IDF outpost that was attacked and he literally did nothing. So yeah, that’s the other thing I would have done.
Bibi hasn’t exactly made hostage exchange/rescue a priority and in fact, his troops shot fleeing/escaping Israeli hostages. Hostages who had their empty hands up and visible. So that’s the third thing I would have done differently.
Yeah I think a recent Kyle Kulinski video mocked the whole Iran has been on the cusp of a nuke for the last quarter century thing. And at this point being attacked by an actually nuke armed bully I couldn’t blame them for that alleged quest.
The only thing that would seriously sour me on Iran after seeing how Israel has recently conducted itself against Gazans or…I don’t know… that whole Sabra and Shatila thing years ago which Waltz with Bashir covered…is if Iran conducted some direct or indirect attack on US soil. Don’t squander my sympathy fuckers. You are still a bit sus in my book.
With Iran and Guatemala we are still reaping what we sowed in the mid 50s. We broke these countries and refused to pay the consequences. Anyone who doesn’t realize that lacks the requisite two neurons to rub together. In the case of Israel they prefer the Bibi teabagging over reality. In the case of deportations domestically people are fleeing situations we played no small role in creating.
I have no shits to give over Iranian retaliation on Israel, especially after seeing what they have done to Gaza and want to do to the West Bank (fuck the Zionist ideas of Judea and Samaria and any thug who uses those disgusting terms). Let that rip!
silvrhalide @34
Refresh my sense both of history and geography for a moment if you will. I was under the mistaken impression that Osirak was located in Iraq and not Iran. I think I may have succumbed to the Mandela effect as with Berenstain Bears. Thanks for rectifying that blunder for me. Much obliged.
silvrhalide @34
Fucking hell this is confusing. The link you furnished may have gotten it wrong when it asserted:
“Israeli Attack on Iraq’s Osirak 1981: Setback or Impetus for Nuclear Weapons?”
You said it was Iran several times so obviously your link got it wrong. Damn them sloppy fuckers.
It’s always been urgent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassinations_of_Iranian_nuclear_scientists
@37 silvrhalide wrote about the IAEA inspections: Actually, they didn’t. They prevented international inspectors from going to the suspected sites when they arrived,
I reply: this is true for some of the incidents. However, there were also many times when IAEA inspection occurred.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-to-know-about-inspections-of-irans-nuclear-program-by-the-iaea-ahead-of-a-key-board-vote/ar-AA1Gpmje
AP report 09June2025
IAEA inspections and Iran
Under the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to allow the IAEA even greater access to its nuclear program. That included permanently installing cameras and sensors at nuclear sites.
This is not a simple situation. I have more info but don’t want to flood this site. I am not a fan of iran, but there have been lots of complications regarding inspections because iran doesn’t want outsiders have info. And, as far as I can tell israel has many nuclear weapons, but, is even more secretive about all their nuclear weapons development.
Wait. I think I have landed upon what I thought was actually real thanks in no small part to the space program and a sad Space Shuttle tragedy involving a participant in Operation Opera which was against Iraq and not Iran. Sanity restored I guess.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilan_Ramon
I still have a vivid memory of that horrific tragedy alongside Challenger. RIP Ramon and your Columbia comrades! Ughhh!!!!
@40
You are correct, my apologies. At home sick with concussion & broken ribs. Between the pain meds & the concussion, not at my finest at the moment.
Stuxnet was always intended to target the Iranian nuclear centrifuges at Natanz.
The Israeli attack on Osirak was against a nuclear development facility in Iraq.
Sorry about that.
Nice catch!
When a certain someone’s chief source of pro-Israeli propaganda suddenly croaks it is up in the air how to carry on especially with those Palestinian hating cats a daily blog post refers to. Will that end?
What about the batshit British barrister you keep saying you want to marry? Or maybe a career with MEMRI if not already?
But take solace in the fact you will be embraced by bigoted right wingers in your comments as you attract them like maggots to rotting shit you faux left bullshitter who is daily losing your marbles. I can name several. Nuff said about that other blogger who might impulsively link to PZ’s OP. Hello!
Requisite reference to Hitchens’ scathing critiques of Israel never addressed by that blog.
I saw in the news recently that one of the sites they didn’t bomb had Uranium purified to 60%, which is close to weapons grade. The site wasn’t bombed because that would cause a lot of purified uranium to be released into the atmosphere, creating a nuclear disaster. It looks to me that the Iranian government wants to build bombs, at a minimum as a threat to keep themselves from being hammered by Israel. Once they have the bombs though, well, just look at Russia always rattling their nuclear sword when other countries do things they don’t like. At some point the temptation to use them may be too great, either by the government or by some Iranian colonel who thinks Allah wants him to do something with all that power.
@43 The point of inspections is that you are supposed to be allowed to conduct them timely ALL the times for which they are agreed. Not SOME of the time, when the inspected have something to hide and don’t feel like getting caught.
IAEE by definition are outsiders
Iran signed the agreement, which included provisions for inspection. Israel did not. Am I giving a whole lot of side eye to Israel? Hell yes. BUT the fact of the matter is that Iran signed and Israel didn’t. By signing the agreement, Iran agreed to ALL the terms, not just some of them when they feel like it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/iran-rejects-us-demand-for-un-visit-to-military-sites-idUSKCN1B9182/#:~:text=During%20its%20decade%2Dlong%20stand%2Doff%20with%20world%20powers,and%20so%20were%20beyond%20the%20IAEA's%20purview.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3v6w2qr12o
So the Iranians allowed inspectors to inspect Natanz but not military sites and lo and behold, they somehow built an entire enrichment facility (Fordo) under a mountain. Did they move the parsley and look, there it was, on the plate the entire time?
Face it, Iran is and always has been playing dirty pool and never had any intention of transparency and compliance.
This is an entirely separate matter from Israel’s bellicose attitude and its initiation of war against Iran, one in which they did not have to initiate armed conflict but clearly chose to do so.
The two should not be conflated. Apples and oranges.
This is tantamount to claiming that Israel is more restrained in using force to achieve geopolitical goals than is Iran — and yes, the countries aren’t the people.
Point being, I can’t imagine how anyone could reasonably see Israel as “restrained”, given Gaza.
(They started this latest spate of bombings by claiming an existential threat; sound familiar? hint: Trump’s states of Emergency)
@ 47 I think this is what you are looking for?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn9yll5yjx5o
@49 Don’t interpret what I said as approving of what the Israeli government has done. They breed more enemies than they kill by their actions and the government’s apartheid policies. I’m just saying that we don’t need another nuclear player on the world stage, especially one that performs acts because they believe they are fulfilling God’s will. Yes, I know that description could also fit Israel (and possibly the US if politics goes that way), but we don’t need more guests at the Mad Hatter’s nuclear tea party.
Actually, Trump’s tweet thingy consisted of only two words :
(Allcaps original.)
So .. apparently Donald Trump just unconditionally surrendered! Not sure who he’s just surrendered to but I wish the new rulers of the USA, whoever they are, the best & hope they do a lot better than it’s current regime which won’t be hard to achieve at all. (Low bar.)
The Iranians and others seemingly missed their opportunity to reply to that with a simple,
“Okay we accept ypour surrender”
message sadly.
.***
More seriously,
@ freeline : Many years ago now I used to think like you do – even more so indeed. I was very badly wrong then and that idea that the Iranians are literally that insane is incorrect.
Exhibit A the performative, ceremonial and restrained response in October last year :
Source : https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/iran-israel-attack-drones-analysis-intl/index.html
The Iranian theocratic dictators are not nice or good people. They are repressive, cruel and Iran would be better off under other Iranian leaders – but they are not as utterly fanatically, counter-productively “nuts” as you think they are – as or I used to think them to be.
They also had signed an Iran deal that saw them stop their nuclear program but which Trump then broke and ripped up meaning Trump is to blame here for their NOT being that deal he now demands they sign. Wish more journos had the guts to point that out.
Was reminded of this old Postillon (think German Onion) article from 2012.
“Iran celebrates 20 years of being moments away from completing their first atomic bomb.”
@ ^ lasius : Throughout my entire lifetime, we seem to have always been twenty years away from landing Humans on Mars, had cheap safe easy nuclear fusion just around the corner and, well, yeah.
See this – Netanyahu’s spent 33 years warning an Iran nuke is ‘imminent’ | AJ#shorts clip here Um. short and repeating. Rather aptly repeating.
I think war with iran ha s been threatened since the Shah fell too. ,
Today’s Guardian: “Israel Katz told journalists in Holon near Tel Aviv:
Khamenei openly declares that he wants Israel destroyed – he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals. He considers the destruction of the state of Israel to be a goal, Such a man can no longer be allowed to exist.”
For once I agree with the Israeli defence minister. People who try to want destroy other nations, indulge in ethnic cleansing, annexe other territories, give the order to fire on hospitals or refugee camps, or deny food aid to starving people, are war criminals, and can no longer be allowed to exist.
@55,
“he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals”
What Iran fired on where 2 buildings of Israel’s military and intelligence that just so happen to be located close to a hospital. Which happened to suffer some blast damage. Katz is a serial liar, and as we have learned, every Israeli accusation is a confession.
And I don’t care much for the “can no longer be allowed to exist” rhetoric. If you want to use that selectively on whoever you think should be dead, you’re no better than them.
I’ve ceased to believe anything the Israelis say.
Israel is all outraged that Iran deliberately hit a hospital.
“Iran says the target of the strike was a nearby technology park ….”
I’m sure Iran is right here. They don’t have that many ballistic missiles and wasting one on a hospital would be dumb.
Irael has also deliberately hit many civilian targets in Iran, many apartment buildings and their TV studios.
The Iranian government has stopped releasing casualty numbers but civilian sources have it at 640.
One thing that seems obvious here is that Iran can’t actually aim their missiles very well.
It puts them at yet again another disadvantage against Israel.
I’m no expert at targeting missiles and drones for aerial war, but it seems like the current standard is that drones and missiles hit their targets. I think they use GPS.
Here is what Google search has to say.
There are a lot of ways to guide missiles these days.
We don’t just launch them and hope any more.
I’m not impressed with the Iranian’s guidance system abilities.
The Israelis seem to be able to kill specific people with bombs though.
The IAEA should have the last word on this and it is:
https://truthout.org/articles/iaea-head-we-did-not-have-any-proof-of-iran-building-nuclear-weapon/
20250619
IAEA Head: “We Did Not Have Any Proof” of Iran Building Nuclear Weapon
“We did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon,” IAEA’s Rafael Grossi said.
By Sharon Zhang
On the other side of that coin, when did israel give the IAEA full access to their nuclear weapons program and weapons? I can’t find any mention of israel allowing IAEA in their country.
The bottom line is nuclear weapons are a threat to the existence of humans on this planet no matter who has them!
how does one pick sides? Iran is /has been a state sponsor of terrorism, actively supported wars and conflicts in the region (and beyond), supplied weapons used against civilians in Ukraine and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. There are ample reasons that sanctions have been in place (off and on) since 1980…And the current Israel who under Bibi has become what they claimed to have been fighting against: committing war crimes in Gaza.
shades of grey – no clear ‘good guy’ here
one thing does seem apparent – something was eminent, Israel felt they needed to act NOW not in a few days or weeks …NOW! they conducted operations on a clear night during a near full moon, giving away an operational advantage that they would have if they waited just 10 or 12 days (using night vision for their pilots , and their operatives on the ground being less detectable)
another thing – I betting that Israel didn’t get approval/coordinate with the USA (likely because they don’t trust the USA to not leak ) because the Nimitz carrier group is only now moving into the area (and still days away)
from a pragmatic POV – this weakens an ally of Russia which I believe is a net good in the world – I hope the USA has a zero to very limited involvement (Dropping MOAB’s on hardened bunkers/ centrifuge sites and nothing else)
A good place to start is – who is the aggressor in the current war? There’s only one hgonest answer to that question: Israel.
Opposing a war against Iran doesn’t make you “pro-Iran” any more than opposing Bush Jr’s war against Iraq made any of us “pro-Iraq” or “pro-Saddam.”
(Also, while we’re at it, opposing this latest war doesn’t make us “anti-Israel” either — just “anti-Beginyahu” maybe.)
I oppose this disastrous stupidity because I’m pro-Iranian-people, pro-Israeli-people, pro-Palestinian-people, and pro-American-people.
The mullahs cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons. They just can’t.
Why not? We’ve “allowed” both the USSR (under Stalin) and China (under Mao) to have nuclear weapons, with no serious calls to pre-emptively bomb and destroy their capabilities; and neither of those countries have used their nukes to annihilate anyone.
Nuclear weapons in the hands of the current Iranian regime would pose an existential threat to the entire Middle East and potentially the whole world.
What about nuclear weapons in the hands of people like Stalin or Mao? They weren’t exactly sane or trustworthy people either. If we could live with them having nukes, without having to start a whole ‘nother war to prevent them from getting any, I’m pretty sure we can live with a nuclear Iran (just as we appear to be living with a nuclear Israel, a nuclear India and Pakistan, and a nuclear North Korea).
notaandomposter @ # 61: … I hope the USA has a zero to very limited involvement (Dropping MOAB’s on hardened bunkers/ centrifuge sites and nothing else)
The USA could only do that by delivering said MOABs by unicorn.
Change the names and you could be talking about the UK, about the USA, about many other countries. KG is right, a good place to start is who attacked first, in this context it has repeatedly been the Israeli ‘Defence’ Force.
Iran is /has been a state sponsor of terrorism, actively supported wars and conflicts in the region (and beyond), supplied weapons used against civilians in Ukraine and commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
This is true. So maybe we should be concentrating on those Iranian actions, since Iran is far more likely to keep on doing these than to actually use a nuclear weapon against anyone.
Also, we should be paying more attention to those specific conflicts Iran is (or may be) participating in — they’ll still be going on even if we destroy Iran’s ability or will to meddle in them.
freeline@35,
Again with the stupid analogies. And no apology for misrepresenting me.
Well since Israel has nukes, and Iran doesn’t, and is not even near getting them, your view is quite obviously absurd. Even if it did have them, you have given no rational grounds for believing it would be more likely to use them, only some babbling about “70 virgins” which just showed you know fuck-all about Islam or the Iranian regime.
Well if you mean that, it’s the stupidest fucking thing you’ve said yet – and that’s quite something. The very best way to set off a nuclear war is to try to attack a nuclear weapons state’s nukes.
You’re just using the usual hackneyed right-wing whinge when unable to produce a rational argument. And I wasn’t even using “privilege” in the way that standard whinge objects to. Do try to read for understanding, and make substantive points.
When under attack, or when an attack is imminent, and no alternative means of averting it exist. Which, quite obviously, was not the case.
Quite a lot of the terrorism has of course been perpetrated by Israel (including against Iran, assassinating a number of people within that country), there have been more than 4 wars, and Israel has started several of them. If I was the prime minister of Israel, I’d make a serious attempt to come to a just settlement with the Palestinian people – something they haven’t tried yet.
There are a lot of downsides to the USA piling on and attacking Iran.
.1. This is Israel’s war.
They started it unilaterally.
.2. More importantly, the Israeli’s don’t need our help right now.
They achieved air superiority immediately and are now bombing Iran at will.
Iran has proved to be a paper tiger and is pretty helpless.
At this point, we would just be kicking them when they are down.
Like any bully or gang member.
Let Israel take the credit and..take the blame.
.3. A key fact that has been ignored is the price of crude oil.
Brent Crude went from low at $68 to now $78 in a few days.
A huge amount of the world’s oil comes from this area and passes through the Straits of Hormuz. It is 20%.
If the oil price stays high for too long it will cause inflation and also lower economic growth.
You will also know it when you pull up to the gas pump and put 30 gallons into your oversized pickup truck*.
We have enough problems without adding that one to our list.
**When gas prices were high, one day I was fueling up my 4 cylinder Toyota.
The attendant was standing there and I mentioned gas prices were high.
He said sure, and the RV in front of me just filled up its tank for $300.
So, there’ll be no American bunker-busters used: White House: Trump to make a decision on whether to attack Iran ‘within two weeks’.
…I would find it hard to believe that nations are expected to be sitting ducks until someone actually attacks them first.
Um…there’s plenty of instances throughout history where nations see their neighbors building up their armies, and don’t pre-emptively attack them. This is known as NORMAL DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS. Every country has armed forces, so everyone has to accept that everyone else has armed forces, and no one has a right to demand that anyone give up their armed forces or face a preemptive attack. For further clarification of this basic fact of international relations, look under “D” for “duh.”
But the question in this case is why would Israel want to attack Iran in the first place if Iran didn’t pose a threat?
Because Beginyahu needs a new new war to keep on silencing domestic opposition and distract attention away from the atrocities of his old new war. That’s pretty much Likud’s brand: they’re the party of strength, security, and killing the swarthy heathen savages to make more room for God’s Chosen People.
@58
From your link:
Just because the IAEA hasn’t found proof doesn’t mean that Iran isn’t actively trying to build a nuclear weapons arsenal.
The same article points out that by Israel starting a war with Iran, it is now more difficult for inspectors to inspect.
Lavoisier discovered oxygen. Just because no one found evidence for oxygen before Lavoisier’s discovery didn’t mean that oxygen didn’t exist.
Iran has always played dirty pool. And Israel has spend decades claiming that Iran and Iraq were going to gain nuclear bomb capability any minute now and we should all be terrified and we have to do something RIGHT NOW. Except that we didn’t and surprise, neither country actually has a nuclear bomb.
That said, Fondo didn’t build itself. And if it was only ever intended for civilian energy purposes, why hide it away in a mountain? There’s really only one reason–it’s hidden away from US spy satellites and Israel can’t actually bomb it. Like I said, dirty pool.
@64
In point of fact, the Russian hard-liner coup (short lived) did in fact threaten to bomb the US. It was in the early 90s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_attempt#:~:text=The%201991%20Soviet%20coup%20attempt,the%20CPSU%20at%20the%20time.
China has occasional allies and no actual friends among nations. Its closest ally (Russia) is unreliable and would annex China in a heartbeat if China didn’t have nuclear capabilities. I’ve never been convinced that China’s impetus to get a nuclear arsenal was to deter the US rather than to keep its neighbors–Russia and North Korea–on their sides of the borders.
The Iranian theocracy’s crazy dial goes to 11. You can’t sugarcoat that fact.
In point of fact, the US did take steps–diplomatic and economic–to reduce or otherwise halt the Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons capabilities. We established diplomatic treaties with both (SALT I & II) and engaged in trade, principally food. It worked.
In the case of Iran, we Stuxnetted the hell out of their nuclear facilities for the better part of 2 decades. That worked too.
I reject the idea that the only way to restrain Iran’s crazy nuclear ambitions is by starting a war or dropping a bomb. Covert tactics worked beautifully with ZERO loss of life. (Note that the US destroyed Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities with target-specific malware. Israel decided to assassinate nuclear scientists.)
We never told Iran what they could or couldn’t say on their billboards, or elections or nations. We just didn’t allow them to develop nuclear weapons. Because the theocracy is batshit crazy.
@61 If the US had moved the Nimitz battle group to the Middle East before Israel attacked Iran, that would have been a dead giveaway that an attack was imminent. You can’t hide that kind of movement. You can see it from space.
Also, Israel’s attack seems to have been unilateral. The US does not appear to have given tacit approval.
If Israel wants to make unilateral decisions, then they can go to war alone too. Their call for a US bunker buster is because they bit off more than they could chew. The US should let them extricate themselves from the mess that they created. The US should absolutely not provide the requested bunker buster. Israel got their toes stepped on when they unilaterally attacked Iraq by bombing Osirak–they were censured by the UN Security Council and general assembly and the US refused to hand over the contracted F-16s. That taught them a few things, things that they may need to relearn. As KG pointed out, there is no right of preemptive attack.
No, it isn’t. Vile, certainly, but if it had been “batshit crazy”, it would have attacked Israel all-out decades ago – and could certainly have made chemical weapons to do so, and launched them on ballistic missiles, or given them to Hezbollah.
@69
Going to war over the price of crude oil might not be the worst reason to go to war or to choose a side to back but has to be somewhere in the top ten.
It’s completely unjustifiable.
Unless you bought a truck or SUV to haul hay/a boat/horse trailer or because you have 8 kids and they won’t fit into any other type of vehicle, you are making a choice–a voluntary choice–to buy a vehicle that consumes an inordinate amount of gas.
That’s a choice that you, the consumer, makes.
You, the consumer, have the choice to buy an expensive vehicle that will likely haul around only you and your ego, in addition to destroying the planet OR you have the option to choose a more economically and environmentally sane vehicle.
Don’t cry to me about how expensive it is to fuel your Canyonero when gas prices are high. You made the choice you made and at least in theory, you were capable of making a different one. The rest of the planet doesn’t owe you cheap gas or a subsidy for your chosen lifestyle while they bear the substantially greater economic, health and environmental costs.
You mentioned that you, personally, have a 4 cylinder Toyota. I made the choice to buy a gas-electric hybrid when my old car died; it was more expensive than a conventional gas engine and money was kind of tight for me for about 2 years (less so for the remaining 4 years of the car loan). BUT I really like paying about $30 or so a month for gas for all my regular commuting and other travel.
I also wonder how many of the SUVs I see on the road have ever had dirt in their tire treads.
xposted from TIT: https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2025/04/03/infinite-thread-xxxv/comment-page-9/#comment-2269170
There’s a pernicious perception that Iran is “third world”; I checked with the Bubblebot:
Iran’s closest comparisons in terms of area, population, GDP, and HDI are:
Area (~1.65 million km²): Comparable to Mongolia (1.56 million km²) and Peru (1.28 million km²).
Population (~89 million): Similar to Turkey (~86 million) and Germany (~84 million).
GDP (~$1.7 trillion PPP): Close to Thailand (~$1.8 trillion) and South Africa (~$1.4 trillion).
HDI (~0.774, High): Comparable to Turkey (0.853) and Mexico (0.779).
For direct comparisons, you can explore this tool for detailed country comparisons.
&Iran vs. Ukraine comparison:
Area: Iran (~1.65 million km²) is significantly larger than Ukraine (~603,550 km²).
Population: Iran (~90.6 million) has more than twice Ukraine’s (~37.7 million).
GDP: Iran (~$404.6 billion nominal) is more than twice Ukraine’s (~$178.8 billion nominal).
HDI: Iran (~0.774) is slightly higher than Ukraine (~0.779).
For a detailed breakdown, see this comparison.
@73 NO
“Vile” is Fox News broadcasters telling or at least strongly implying that the vaccine is worthless or dangerous and that Covid 19 is a hoax while they themselves are all fully vaccinated.
“Batshit crazy” is stating that Covid 19 is an American hoax designed to make China and Iran look bad.
“Batshit crazy” is the Iranian minister of health going on television to downplay the seriousness of Covid 19 while knowing that he had Covid 19 and knowingly spreading it to anyone he came in contact with.
“Batshit crazy” is denouncing all rational attempts to contain the virus and protect people by denouncing said measures as insufficiently devout.
“Batshit crazy” is refusing medical aid from “the great Satan” even if that medical aid will save lives.
https://www.france24.com/en/20200322-iran-s-supreme-leader-khamanei-refuses-us-help-to-fight-coronavirus-citing-conspiracy-theory
https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-ali-khamenei-islam-8c9578b5b86963f41cfc893bec9e9a68
https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/iran-coronavirus-response-conspiracy-theories-1.5506288
It doesn’t matter to these asshats that people will die if they follow said asshats’ instructions. All that matters to them is that they, the mullahs, still get to dictate batshit crazy religious dogma to the idiotically faithful, even if it kills them.
THAT is batshit crazy.
@73 Iran sponsored Syria’s terrorism and Assad’s gassing of his own people with sarin gas. Whether or not Iran gave the sarin to Assad directly or just the materials with which to make it is irrelevant.
Just because Iran hasn’t taken every possible batshit crazy action there is to take doesn’t mean that they aren’t batshit crazy.
And yet:
Here’s a verified, side-by-side contrast with direct links:
Excess Deaths per 100 000 (All-cause excess mortality)
– Iran: 319 excess deaths per 100 000 (02-24-2020 to 10-09-2022) [World Population Review]
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/excess-covid-deaths-by-country#iran%5B^1^]
– USA: 403 excess deaths per 100 000 (03-09-2020 to 08-20-2023) [World Population Review]
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/excess-covid-deaths-by-country#united-states%5B^1^]
—
Fewer excess deaths per capita than the USA. Fact.
(One could say they handled the pandemic better, by that metric; so very crazy!)
@78 Do you even read your own links?
As per your provided link
United States excess deaths per 100,00: 409 data collection period 03-09-2020 to 08-20-2023 total 42 months approx
Iran excess deaths per 100,000: 319 data collection period 02-24-2020 to 10-09-2022 total 32 months approx
US deaths per month average: 9.738 or 116.857 excess deaths per year
Iran deaths per month average: 9.969 or 119.625 excess deaths per year
So for the same 42 month period, this means that Iran would have lost approximately 419 excess deaths per 100,000, as compared to the US’s 409 excess deaths per 100,000
The devil is in the details. (Usually the materials and methods section.)
Maybe you’re thinking an extra 10 deaths per 100,000 isn’t so bad?
Consider that Iran was burying their dead in mass graves large enough to be seen from space. Which kind of suggests that Iran is not being particularly forthcoming or truthful about exactly how many excess deaths there really were. (Kind of like their truthfulness about not trying to acquire nuclear bomb capabilities.)
Sure the US has its own batshit crazy people (insert Florida man meme here) and plenty of people in the US are also batshit crazy–the red states, notorious for not masking, social distancing & antivaxxing had about 2 Covid 19 deaths for every blue state Covid 19 death. Certainly Florida stopped accurately counting Covid 19 deaths pretty quickly. But Florida is one state out of 50 and not even the biggest or most populous state. But even in the red states you didn’t see people licking the locked gates of religious sites to “prove” that Covid 19 was a hoax or how the strength of Shia Islam would protect them. Iran’s crazy dial goes to 11 with that kind of idiocy.
https://www.memri.org/tv/iran-lick-shiite-shrine-coronavirus
https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-coronavirus-fact-check/6742328.html
How are your math and reading skills these days?
as stated @comment #70 – TACO says he’ll make a decision in ‘two weeks’ (which means never)
as has been pointed out – I mid-stated,calls are for the USAF to drop a MOP (Massive Ordinance Penetrator /bunker buster) not a MOAB
all the hand wringing about oil prices – big complicated mess with many many variables – Iran (for the time being) being out of the oil business will impact oil prices, so will (has) the conflict/sanctions on Russia,so has OPEC nations manipulating supply to influence prices (and politics). This will benefit every other oil producer and pressure will be on suppliers to increase production to not allow prices to get too high, lest Russia benefit- The fact that Sunni countries financially benefit from this, I’m sure they see as a win and they’ll tolerate Israel’s actions (in Iran) as the enemy of my enemy is (at least for now) is my friend . Oil will be back at $65-70 by the end of the summer (unless something else moves the needle)
do I “like’ that this happened, no – Bibi likely did this (at least partially) to get credit for being a hero and stopping an imminent nuclear threat (but where is the evidence?)
pragmatically – it demonstrates that Russia is weak and getting weaker -there was some sort of mutual defense pact, and Russia is not rendering any aid (because they can’t?) a weaker Russian military I hope will lead to their swifter defeat in Ukraine- and THAT I approve of
and to clarify – Bibi doing this (to be a ‘hero’) may be engineered to be an attempt at a distraction from his being a frickin’ monster in his treatment of his neighbors – atrocities and war crimes that the world will not forget/forgive
silvrhalide:
“Do you even read your own links?”
Always. Thing is, there is no direct 1:1, and for some weird reason Iran is a tad more secretive than non-sanctioned countries.
“United States excess deaths per 100,00: 409 data collection period 03-09-2020 to 08-20-2023 total 42 months approx
Iran excess deaths per 100,000: 319 data collection period 02-24-2020 to 10-09-2022 total 32 months approx
So for the same 42 month period, this means that Iran would have lost approximately 419 excess deaths per 100,000, as compared to the US’s 409 excess deaths per 100,000”
A linear extrapolation doesn’t capture the rate of change of mortality over time, so that’s just as vague.
But even then, you’re claiming the excess mortality was on a par with the USA, which suffices to make my point.
I think your shoehorning is rather amusing, and your pretended precision is precious.
These are all ball-park estimates with huge error bars.
Point is, Iran is no third-world hellscape ruled by crazy, foaming-at-the-mouth mullahs as you are trying to insinuate.
“Which kind of suggests that Iran is not being particularly forthcoming or truthful about exactly how many excess deaths there really were.”
Well, duh. Not exactly unique in that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undercounting_of_COVID-19_pandemic_deaths_by_country#United_States
—
In no way inferior to yours.
@82
Apparently you don’t read your own posts either.
I stated no such thing.
A list of countries with extrapolated excess deaths for non-matching time periods is useless for comparison, as is your completely pointless comparison of Iran to Ukraine. You really don’t know what you are talking about do you.
China isn’t sanctioned and they suppress the news and/or scientific data which is why no one believes their BS either.
There are a lot of reasons for the USA to just stay out of Israel’s war.
I listed a few in #69.
.1. The oil price rise is in reaction to the war.
The longer the war, the higher the price will be.
It’s in the world’s interest for the US to stay out instead of causing the war to drag on.
.2. Without outside intervention, this should be a short war.
Israel and Iran don’t share any borders so this has to be an air and naval war.
Neither side seems to have any capacity to invade with land based forces.
AFAICT, they are both going to run out of missiles, bombs, and drones soon.
CNN two days ago. “Israeli military data and expert analysis say Iran has fired about 700 of its medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) at Israel over the past 14 months, leaving it with anything between 300 to 1,300 left in its stockpile.”
Israel is running out of anti-missile missiles.
“Israel running low on Arrow interceptors, US burning through its systems too – WSJ”
I don’t have any information on how long Israel can keep bombing Iran. It’s a long trip between Israel and Iran and that is going to put a lot of stress on their bombers. And Iran is a huge country with a lot of targets.
I don’t see that the USA has anything to gain by piling on Iran, which right now is giving a good imitation of an upside down turtle.
What it might well do is make the war drag on a whole lot longer though.
It’s worth noting that bombing campaigns tend to not accomplish a whole lot.
.1. We dropped more bombs on Vietnam and the surrounding area than were dropped in all of World War II. By 2X. ” The US dropped an estimated 7.5 million tons of bombs on Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, while the total for World War II was around 3.4 million tons.”
And, we still lost.
.2. We and others have been bombing the Somalis and various Yemen factions for decades. Without much to show for it.
The Houthis barely seem to notice any more.
All their important stuff is deep in underground bunkers.
Well, I think I made my point sufficiently, given those protestations.
This one is particularly weak:
(See, that retort does not dispute my contention, does it? I already noted the USA did the same thing)
FWIW, regarding those sanctions, a topical concern at the time:
Karimi & Salimi Turkmani, “U.S.‐Imposed Economic Sanctions on Iran in the COVID-19 Crisis,” Int’l J. of Health Services, 2021.
(https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00207314211024912)
(“Those medicines would have been sour, anyway” is a plausible populist framing for the lack of that health access)
Well, one more aspect.
You refer to #75, right?
The point was to provide some sense of proportion and an idea of the scales at hand for such as you.
A cluey person might have noticed that Iran is much bigger and not particularly less-developed than Ukraine; the unstated context is how easy Russia is finding it to crack the Ukraine nut, though it’s comparatively much bigger than is Israel, and had and has more resources.
You got none of that, did you? Thus, you imagined it was pointless.
This is correct.
It was really striking how the world dealt with the Covid-19 pandemic. In most of the world, for various reasons, they didn’t even bother to count the people dead from the virus.
.1. China initially reported accuate numbers but after their isolation strategy failed, they just stopped counting their dead.
There was about 6 months where the virus went through their partially immunized population and killed a lot.
No one knows, but the estimates are between 1 and 2 million people dead in the 6 months after they ended the isolation procedures.
.2. Russia never counted their dead either.
Their vaccines didn’t work very well.
Good estimates are around 1 million, a lot more than they claimed.
.3. India initially started counting their dead and after a million or so gave up.
They lost 4-5 million according to WHO.
.4. The Third world didn’t even bother to count their dead.
In most cases, their health care systems aren’t even capable of counting up the dead.
No one knows how many people died in Africa or parts of Asia.
.5. The USA generally did a reasonable job of counting the dead.
Even here, as time went on, some Red states just decided it didn’t look good to have people dying from what became a preventable disease.
Florida, Nebraska and parts of Ohio and Missouri just stopped counting all the dead from Covid-19 virus.
When you see estimates of how many people in the world died from the Covid-19 virus pandemic, none of them are very accurate.
We really just don’t know how many Covid-19 deaths there were worldwide.
@72. “Because the theocracy is batshit crazy.”
No. It isn’t see my comment #52 above – scroll down and read it all and the evidence.
https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2025/06/18/i-cant-believe-im-suddenly-pro-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-2269337
China has occasional allies and no actual friends among nations. Its closest ally (Russia) is unreliable and would annex China in a heartbeat if China didn’t have nuclear capabilities.
Are you fucking kidding me?! Has any Russian leader EVER actually thought seriously about annexing a country that big?
The Iranian theocracy’s crazy dial goes to 11. You can’t sugarcoat that fact.
Stalin and Mao weren’t exactly beacons of sanity either.
In point of fact, the US did take steps–diplomatic and economic–to reduce or otherwise halt the Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons capabilities…
In point of fact, those steps did not include armed attacks on any part of either country.
In the case of Iran, we Stuxnetted the hell out of their nuclear facilities for the better part of 2 decades. That worked too.
And what happens when it stops working? No country has ever managed to keep another country weak forever.
@88
I said the theocracy was batshit crazy. I never said they were stupid. It is entirely possible to be both smart and batshit crazy. Exhibit A: the Unabomber.
Batshit crazy is refusing to believe actual evidence that Covid 19 is real, in the face of all evidence to the contrary.
Even if you know it will kill all of your people. Your devout followers/worshippers. The faithful without whom you will have no social/economic/political standing. (Setting aside for the moment the obvious sociopathy of leading your followers to an agonizing and at least partially preventable death. Talk about the Judas goat.) Whether we are talking about Young Earth creationists or Islamic nutjob ministers of health who think that plague went out with WWI, they are all batshit crazy. See my post at #79. We’re not talking about a difference of opinion here, we are talking about a difference in acceptance of causal reality.
Note that I never said that all Iranians were batshit crazy–just the theocracy. Kindly do not put words in my mouth that I never said. Clearly there are increasing numbers of rank and file Iranians who are fed up with 12th century fairy tales and religious grifter leaders. Exhibit B: pretty much every Iranian protest march since the Iranian Islamic Revolution.
@89
Stalin and Putin, actually.
Stalin started the USSR with Russia, Belarus, Ukraine (buyer’s remorse guys?) and the now-defunct Transcaucasia.
Stalin then proceeded to annex most of the ‘stans (with the exception of Afghanistan, which is Russia’s in all but name and Pakistan), Estonia, Moldavia, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Yugoslavia, Romania, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Poland, Hungary.. the list goes on.
Stalin made an unsuccessful attempt to grab Manchuria from China.
Putin is busy trying to get them all back and resurrect the old USSR.
BTW, China was nervous enough about Russia’s real estate acquisitions that they actually cozied up to the US in the late 60s–to fucking Kissinger ffs–which paved the way for Nixon’s official visit. (Yeah, I’m gagging too.)
Neither Stalin or Putin ever intended to grab all of China in one fell swoop (barring some truly fortuitous deaths in Chinese leadership) but that’s never been their way. They take small steady bites and the next thing you know, your country belongs to the worker’s paradise. /s
BTW, China isn’t really China alone– the PRC is actually made up of numerous small countries & (not so) autonomous regions. Just like the former USSR. So it does beg the definition of “country”. Will Putin attempt to take all of PRC? No. Will he try to lop off small countries/autonomous regions like Nepal or Tibet or Uighurstan or even the Amur River basin? Probably. If he gets the chance.
Both Russia & China have more or less continuously sniped and bickered over exactly what constitutes the border, sometimes as actual war, sometimes as undeclared war.
One of the current areas of contention is the Amur River basin. Notable moments include China’s unannounced massive dumping of toxic waste in the Amur River and then not notifying Russia for several weeks… after large numbers of Russians got sick from drinking the water. The two largest and most powerful Communist nations, perpetually at each other’s throats while ostensibly calling each other allies.
I never said they were. If anything, the Great Leap Forward/Cultural Revolution and the Great Purge(es) with attendant mass starvation kind proves my point about batshit crazy leaders.
I never said they did. If you read my posts on this thread, you will see that my point all along is that attacking Iran is completely unnecessary and a waste of time, money and lives and that letting diplomacy, statecraft, sanctions and undermining have their day is the better bet. The one that kills fewer people. The one that leaves the rank and file Iranians more favorably disposed towards the US.
It doesn’t have to last forever. It just has to last long enough for the majority of the Iranian people to overthrow their hated theocratic rulers. Which they are getting closer to day by day, year by year. Autocratic grifter kleptocracies don’t last forever either.
Aaaand… Exhibit C
“81% of [Iranian] respondents [to a survey] said they do not want the Islamic Republic.”
In the news: “You don’t know anything about Iran”: Tucker Carlson and Sen. Ted Cruz spar over regime change, uploaded by MSNBC.
(Ted’s obvious and utter ignorance is on full display there, most cringeworthy. An ignoramus)
[OT]
I said the theocracy was batshit crazy. I never said they were stupid. It is entirely possible to be both smart and batshit crazy. Exhibit A: the Unabomber.
You are confusing yourself.
If you did not say it was crazy or stupid, then claiming the Unabomber was smart but crazy is utterly irrelevant.
Rather ironically, since your claim is about the theocracy, I note https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2696450-Kaczynski-I-Dont-Believe-in-God/
Bad example regarding the crazyness of a theocracy when you adduce an avowed atheist as your prime exhibit for it.
—
Anyway, I get it. You are insinuating that the Iranian regime is crazy smart, with the Unabomber as your first exhibit.
The Iranian populace will welcome the liberators, cheering and throwing flowers then…deja vu all over.
I can’t tell if this is blind wishful thinking or knowing Likudnik propaganda…
It doesn’t have to last forever. It just has to last long enough for the majority of the Iranian people to overthrow their hated theocratic rulers.
In other words, INDEFINITELY until either the US and Israel give up in the face of loud opposition and no tangible results, or something happens that we can’t predict or control, and whose outcome we may or may not like when we see it happen. Which of those things do you think is most likely to happen first?
Also, didn’t we try something similar in both Iraq and Nicaragua? How did that work for us, or them?
And if you really give a shit about “liberating” Iranians and “overthrowing their hated theocratic rulers,” just remember that Iran’s current government actually has democratic institutions and elective offices. And Iranians were in fact participating in that process to at least try to reduce the power of their theocratic overlords. If “overthrowing their hated theocratic rulers” means destroying those democratic institutions and the stable state needed to uphold them, then we have no reason to expect Iranians’ conditions to improve at all.
Beginyahu and the Likudniks are using war to SOLIDIFY their control over their own people. When they pretend to expect a war to have exactly the opposite effect in Iran, that’s almost as hypocritical as their whining about Iran bombing a hospital.
@95
Only if the US is actually dumb enough to put boots on the ground or drop bombs or otherwise involve itself in the current shitstorm that should otherwise end pretty quickly, seeing as both sides are running out of stuff to launch.
Iran will do what Iran always does–lots of internecine fighting among factions for power with a pretty good chance of another (another!) Iranian revolution. Apparently 81% of the population is rather dissatisfied with the current system. Why interfere? When an enemy is busy destroying itself, just stay out of the way and let them do their thing. Which is what the US should have done all along, frankly. Getting involved in the current hostilities is literally the dumbest thing that the US could do.
Not to mention, Libya and Afghanistan.
Libya is now split into two countries with a perpetual civil war between them. Neither government is all that effective or benign.
In Afghanistan, we spent trillions of dollars, thousands of lives, and 20 years. To replace the Taliban with…the Taliban.
The US history of regime change is pretty dismal.
That is already happening.
We are at day 9 and already both Iran and Israel are slowing down. The two countries are a long distance apart and it is expensive to bomb each other.
If we just wait, this conflict will end up being a low level sporadic effort forever. They might even put it on hold while they build up their stockpiles of weapons.
By attacking Iran, the Isrealis have made nuclear weapons go from an option to a necessity.
Before Israel attacked Iran, ALLEGEDLY to deter them from getting nuclear weapons, their nuclear weapons program (to the extent that they really have any) could easily have been portrayed as a worse-than-useless vanity project taking needed resources away from legitimate needs both civilian and military (like, I dunno, a better air force to fight off Israeli attacks?). Before this attack, the world could have simply kept asking “who would Iran nuke and what would be the consequences for Iran?” But now, the mullocrats have all the justification they need.
@96
Iran is the only nation we have ever used Stuxnet on.
I’m pretty sure the current regime doesn’t have “indefinitely” left. The populace is notably unhappy with the present system.
We don’t have to “like” everything we see. The only question is: are they an existential threat to the US? A nuclear weapon to use against “the great Satan” is an existential threat. One more than adequately dealt with by Stuxnet. No need for bombs, wars, etc. Just the long game.
The Iran-Contra scandal was Reagan & Bush Sr.’s dirty little quid pro quo to get elected. Not regime change. Two wildly different things. Not excusing the Iran-Contra deal either, just stating the facts. You could argue that Iran had a hand in affecting the US presidential election in their actions too. They were unquestioningly willing participants. Apparently the Iranian ayatollahs didn’t have problems doing sub rosa business deals with “the great Satan” for arms to use against the invading Iraqis (under Saddam Hussein) via Hezbollah and Syria.
I genuinely don’t care what they do with their own country. It’s theirs to fuck up however they want. The Iranian Islamic Revolution was the Iranian populist movement. The student movement. They got what they wanted. And look at what they got. The people have spoken!
BWAH HA HA HA HA
Of course they do.
Just like Russia and China.
And everyone knows what free and fair elections those are. You can vote for anyone you want in an Iranian election–right after the theocracy removes and imprisons/assassinates all the opposition candidates. You have your pick of the theocracy’s sock puppets! What more could you ask for.
Spoiler: IT’S THEIR COUNTRY. They are entitled to rule it however they want. Spain has a monarchy–they don’t have a democracy. Apparently a constitutional monarchy is better than a duly-elected dictatorship under Franco. Are you going to tell Spain that they can’t have their current government, that they have to go back to a democratically-elected fascist dictatorship? Now who’s nation-building?
BTW, the Iranians attacked the UK embassy in 2011 and the Saudi Arabian embassy in 2016. There’s a reason Iran is generally disliked and distrusted. I don’t expect the Iranians’ living conditions to improve until their go-to move stops being “throw a hissy fit and attack an embassy”. Some introspection wouldn’t hurt either–they got the government they wanted, the government that they picked. The same government that keeps the populace suppressed, women oppressed and the entire country more or less on the brink of disaster at any given moment. The theocratic government who declared the US “the great Satan” but unblushingly did business and back room deals to elect Reagan in return for American weapons.
And I have zero fucks to give about Bibi and Likud and their BS about targeted hospitals. Who was it who built legit military targets next to a hospital? Likewise, just because Bibi painted himself into a corner doesn’t mean the US has to rush to save him. As stated previously, just because Israel bit off more than they could chew with a war they willingly initiated doesn’t mean the US has to come to their rescue. “We attacked Iran, now you have to help us with a bunker buster bomb!” No we don’t.
silvrhalide:
A remarkably stupid claim, demonstrating wilful ignorance.
BBot sums it up:
Fact of the matter is that Spain is Spain is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy, meaning it has both a hereditary monarch and a democratically elected parliament. Since the 1978 Constitution, Spain has functioned as a democracy with regular elections, separation of powers, and civil liberties enshrined in law.
The monarch—currently King Felipe VI—serves as a ceremonial head of state with no governing power. Legislative authority rests with the Cortes Generales, a bicameral parliament elected by the people.
So while Spain does have a monarchy, it absolutely is a democracy. The claim conflates the presence of a monarch with the absence of democratic governance, which is a categorical error. If you’re analyzing rhetorical tactics, this would qualify as a false dichotomy.