Uh-oh, Florida

It’s looking ominous this morning for Florida’s Gulf coast. Is “ominous” maybe the wrong word? The situation is more than just threatening, they’re about to be slammed hard today by Hurricane Idalia. Just yesterday I was reading that meteorologists expected it would be a Category 3 hurricane with winds above 100mph, but today they’re saying it’s going to be much worse, with 130+ mph winds.

Idalia rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane overnight as forecasters warned that a “catastrophic” storm surge and “destructive” winds were nearing Florida’s northern Gulf Coast. Idalia is set to make landfall Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center said. The agency warned Florida residents to prepare for long power outages and said some locations may be uninhabitable for several weeks or months. Parts of eastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina also could experience damaging winds.

Unfortunately, hurricanes are not discriminating and this one won’t be selectively plucking up the idiots who voted for their climate-change-denying governor. I’ve never experienced winds that fierce — y’all stay safe now.


  1. says

    Its OK the Mad Abbott will shake his fist at the woke storm and tell it to go away. Unless of course he books a ticket to Cancun with Ted Cruz.

  2. Reginald Selkirk says

    I think the NOAA has some systematic errors in their prediction models. I notice that Idalia is moving consistently slower each time I check the wind arrival times.

  3. hemidactylus says

    Some earlier modeling had been suggesting this thing doing an Atlantic loop back toward Florida’s east coast, but that potential seems to be dissipating. Too much a looming shitshow already. Please no Act 2. Luckily I’m way outside the cone on this one. Windy with sprinkles.

    Rainboots Ronnie is on it.

  4. mordred says

    Don’t you have someone who’s just like Jesus down there in Florida?

    Maybe he should get his orange ass onto the beach when the hurricane is about to meet the land and command it to stop? If it works, great. If not, also great!

  5. lotharloo says

    You lefties just don’t get it. This is all Biden’s fault. He’s asleep at the wheel. if Trump were president, he would have already dropped five nukes inside that thing to blow it up and stop it right before it touches Merika.

  6. HidariMak says

    As a Canadian, I have no idea if or how many elected Republicans publicly defended Trump’s handling of aid to Puerto Rico after hurricane Maria. Withholding 20 billion dollars in relief aid and lobbing a few rolls of paper towels to “support” hurricane victims leaves a bad taste in the mouths of voters who are recent hurricane victims. I’m hoping that those doing the campaign ads against Republicans who made such statements supporting Trump, do their job in reminding the public who not to vote for.

  7. robro says

    It’s plowed through the Tallahassee area. Any word if it sucked up Ronnie D?

    Reginald Selkirk @ #2 — “Prediction” might not be the best choice of word, even if NOAA uses it. Tropical cyclone behavior is notoriously difficult to predict accurately and precisely.

  8. birgerjohansson says

    As PZ mentioned, hurricanes do not discriminate.

    I was thinking of something like the alien in ‘Nope’ that becomes aggressive whenever someone looks at it.

    “See that cloud that moves against the wind? It is a sign God has anointed Trump to be president. Stare right at it and pray for the Republicans”.

  9. AstroLad says

    Reginald Selkirk @ 2, robro @ 7
    I’m in SoCal, so not directly concerned about Florida weather. I do have cousins there I haven’t heard from in close to 30 years. The company I work for has two divisions on the east coast, so there are work friends I worry about. What I remember, starting from Trump’s sharpie storm, is that the European models are systematically more accurate than NOAA’s. I wonder what they predict…but not enough to look it up.

  10. Reginald Selkirk says

    “Prediction” is exactly the right word, since it is predicting where the storm will go in the future, as opposed to accurate modeling of how it is operating right now or in the past.

    AstroLad, I recall the discussion of the superiority of European models, that was years ago, and NOAA used it as justification to buy bigger, faster computers. I would hope the previous shortcomings had been addressed.

    What are the best hurricane models to follow?

    Best models for storm track

    In 2022, no one model stuck out above the rest, according to the report. There were clear winners in certain time ranges, however.

    In the short range, the American GFS was the most accurate. In the middle range, the HMON was the winner. The HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic Model) is one of the hurricane center’s hurricane models…

    This topic was trending about 2012-2013 during superstorm Sandy.

  11. Reginald Selkirk says

    Where are all the preachers telling us this is G_d punishing Florida for DeSantis or Trump?

  12. says

    @5 if Trump were president, he would have already dropped five nukes inside that thing to blow it up and stop it right before it touches Merika.

    Or at least used a Sharpie on it.

  13. Ada Christine says

    @Reginald #13

    i’m not a preacher, but i’ll say it

    this is god’s punishment for the anti-lgbtq+ polices of DeSantis’ administration

  14. robro says

    AstroLad @ #10 — I’m from Jacksonville originally, and glad to be far away from there, least of all because of hurricanes. While bigotry is universal, it’s really intense there.

    Reginald Selkirk @ #12 — ‘“Prediction” is exactly the right word…’ Ok, I was just being facetious in my inept way. In any case, hurricanes are difficult to predict even with the best models as the article you linked to suggests.

  15. bcw bcw says

    So the name Idalia: ““Lovable,” in allusion to Idalium, the mountain-city in ancient Cyprus beloved by Venus. Idalia Name Origin: Greek.”

    Lovable? At least it weakened slightly before hitting land (125mph, still bad.)

    Now it’s marching through Georgia on it’s way to Savanah.

  16. Steve Morrison says

    @#1: Unfortunately, Pat Robertson was the only one who could pray away hurricanes.

  17. hemidactylus says

    I’ve learned to not put much stock in long term modeling projections. The outlook downstream for Idalia is uncertain. Models are all over the place. What looked like attacking Florida again, because why not, transitioned to eyeballing the maritime provinces.

    I’m going on these ensembles which will change by the time you click on this link: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL10

    Anyone on the eastern seaboard should stay aware of a drunkard walk ahead.

  18. AstroLad says

    Reginald Selkirk @12
    I remember The Weather Channel’s analysts during Dorian in 2019 talking about the various projected tracks saying that the European models were consistently better. End of my “knowledge”.

    Of course if we are going to have more in SoCal like Hilary, I’ll have to learn more. I live a bit inland from Laguna Beach. Everyone was preparing to get drenched (for August in SoCal). Palm Springs got flooded. All we got was day long dribbles.