Fair’s fair

I was mean to the History Channel yesterday — I mocked them for portraying Satan as a dark-skinned man with a resemblance to Obama. But you know, that wasn’t fair. It’s not as if that show about the Bible is full of coded racist references to appeal to the yahoos of America.

Why, look here: they also include European white dudes! Racial diversity for the win!

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That’s Jesus, by the way. After the Sermon on the Mount, I think he took a break to go surfing off Malibu.

How about if we just retire Dollo’s Law altogether?

Earlier this month, there was a flurry of headlines in the pop-sci press that exasperated me. “Have scientists discovered reversible evolution?” was one; “Evidence of Reverse Evolution Seen in Dust Mites” was another. They failed because they always tried to express a subtle idea in a fluffy way that screwed up a more fundamental concept in evolution — it was one step forward in trying to explain a legitimate science paper, and ten steps back in undermining understanding of evolution. This was just awful:

Researchers who deny the idea that evolutionary traffic can only move forward saw their arguments bolstered this week with the publication of a study suggesting that house dust mites may have evolved from free-living creatures into full-time parasites, only to abandon that evolutionary track and go back the way they came, reverting to the free-living creatures that live invisibly in your carpet, bed, and other places in your home that it’s probably best not to think about them living.

“Evolutionary traffic can only move forward”? Please, define “forward” in this context for me. Evolution doesn’t have a direction. You can talk about a temporal sequence of historical changes in a gene, for instance, but from the point of view of the process, there’s no “forward” or “backwards”, only change over time. Is a genetic deletion a backwards step? Is a duplication a forward step? If a mutation changes a cytosine to an adenine, is that going forward, and if there is a revertant, a mutation that changes that adenine back to a cytosine, is that going backwards? I keep hearing this talk about directions, and it doesn’t even fit into my understanding of the process of evolution. Direction is always something people infer retrospectively.

The paper all this comes from, Is Permanent Parasitism Reversible?–Critical Evidence from Early Evolution of House Dust Mites, by Klimov and O’Connor, isn’t that bad, but still it has some bits that annoy me.

Long-term specialization may limit the ability of a species to respond to new environmental conditions and lead to a higher likelihood of extinction. For permanent parasites and other symbionts, the most intriguing question is whether these organisms can return to a free-living lifestyle and, thus, escape an evolutionary “dead end.” This question is directly related to Dollo’s law, which stipulates that a complex trait (such as being free living vs. parasitic) cannot re-evolve again in the same form. Here, we present conclusive evidence that house dust mites, a group of medically important free-living organisms, evolved from permanent parasites of warm-blooded vertebrates. A robust, multigene topology (315 taxa, 8942 nt), ancestral character state reconstruction, and a test for irreversible evolution (Dollo’s law) demonstrate that house dust mites have abandoned a parasitic lifestyle, secondarily becoming free living, and then speciated in several habitats. Hence, as exemplified by this model system, highly specialized permanent parasites may drastically de-specialize to the extent of becoming free living and, thus escape from dead-end evolution. Our phylogenetic and historical ecological framework explains the limited cross-reactivity between allergens from the house dust mites and “storage” mites and the ability of the dust mites to inhibit host immune responses. It also provides insights into how ancestral features related to parasitism (frequent ancestral shifts to unrelated hosts, tolerance to lower humidity, and pre-existing enzymes targeting skin and keratinous materials) played a major role in reversal to the free-living state. We propose that parasitic ancestors of pyroglyphids shifted to nests of vertebrates. Later the nest-inhabiting pyroglyphids expanded into human dwellings to become a major source of allergens.

It’s actually rather interesting that these mites have a phylogenetic history that shows some dramatic changes in lifestyle. Parasitism is a specialized pattern that typically involves a loss of shedding of generalized abilities that allow for autonomous living; they can get rid of functions that won’t be needed in the conditions they’ll be living in. A mammalian parasite is swimming in a sea of nutrients provided by the host; it can lose genes for the synthesis of many amino acids, for instance, and still survive because it’s immersed in those amino acids, provided by the mammalian bloodstream. But that makes it difficult to leave the parasitic life — if it moves out to the more limited diet available in the external world, it may find itself starving to death, unable to synthesize essential building blocks. Yet here they have evidence that mites shifted from parasitism to free-living.

But I have two complaints. One is this framing as a refutation of Dollo’s Law — I really don’t give a damn about Dollo’s “Law” at all. The second is that they haven’t really shown any evidence of molecular/genetic reversibility.

I just roll my eyes at papers that talk about Dollo’s Law anymore. Do people realize that it was a macroevolutionary hypothesis formulated in the 1890s, before anyone had a clue about how genetics worked, much less how genetics and evolution worked together? It was a reasonable prediction about how traits would distribute over time. A horse, for instance, runs on a single robust toe on each leg, the other digits reduced to vestigial splints; Dollo’s law says that those splints won’t re-expand to reform toes identical to those found in horse ancestors. Why, he didn’t know.

A modern understanding of the principle, informed by the underlying genetics, would instead say that a complex character involving multiple genetic changes and relying on a particular background for its expression is statistically unlikely to be reconstituted by stochastic changes in a different genetic background, in exactly the same way. It’s not a ‘law’, it’s a consequence of probability.

The authors have only found reversion to an ancestral pattern on a very coarse scale: there are a great many ways to be a free-living organism, and there are a great many ways to be a parasite. They can say on a very gross level that mites have changed their niches in their evolutionary history, but they can’t claim there has been an evolutionary reversal: if we compared the ancestral free-living form (pre-parasite phase) to the modern free-living form (post-parasite phase), I have no doubt, and there’s nothing in the paper to contradict me, that there would be significant differences in form, physiology, biochemistry and genome, and further, that the parasitic phase would have left evolutionary scars in that genome.

Dollo’s Law is archaic and superficial, and I have no problem agreeing that Klimov and O’Connor have refuted it. But the more interesting principle, founded in a modern understanding of microevolutionary and genetic events, has not been refuted at all — it’s just confusing that we’re still calling that Dollo’s Law, and that we mislead further by talking about a direction for evolution and ‘reversibility’ and all that nonsense. The only source of direction in this process is time’s arrow, and that doesn’t go backwards.

Skeptech: help me!

Miri is justifiably enthused about Skeptech, which has just announced their schedule. It’s full of cool stuff and lots of interesting people — you should go if you’re anywhere near the Twin Cities. It’s free on 5-7 April — I’ll be there the whole weekend.

But I have a sad admission. I’m on the schedule. Look at my name. Look at my topic. TBD. Oh, sure, I’m in good company: Maggie Koerth-Baker is also TBD. But I have to fix that, and I’m planning to do that this week, since I’m staying home for Spring Break. So help me out, people! What should I talk about?

I’m also working up my Seattle talk, which is slowly congealing. I’m going to talk about scientific and atheistic ethics there, and the message isn’t hopeful: I’m going to discuss our woeful failures, and suggest that morality ain’t gonna be found in a test tube. But there’ll also be some optimism for how broadening our foundations to encompass humanist values can compensate.

Now I could do that talk at Skeptech, too, which would simplify things. But I’ve also been considering some other possibilities. Let me bounce a few ideas around here, you can tell me what sucks and what sounds fun.

  • A realistic look at transhumanism. What biology and the evidence of evolutionary history says about it (with some swipes at that clueless hack, Kurzweil, but also some talk about the neglect of developmental ideas by most transhumanists.)

  • Science and the internet. What scientists really ought to do with blogs, social media, open source publishing — where we’re going wrong, where we’re falling down on the job, where we’re succeeding.

  • The coming apocalypse. It’s not likely to be a sudden catastrophe, and it will make a lousy movie. It will be death by a thousand little cuts…but that means a thousand little band-aids might be the best strategy for staving it off. (A related panel is already on the schedule.)

  • The biology century. The 19th century was all about chemistry; the 20th was physics. The 21st will see a surge of biological innovation. What will the equivalent of the atom bomb be? What will be our flying car?

  • Or something completely different.

As you can tell, I looked at the schedule and noticed a dearth of science talks so far (Jen McCreight is also TBD, maybe she’ll help fill the gap), so I’m leaning sciencey, sort of science-fictioney even. If you’re going, or even if you aren’t, tell me what you think would be interesting and relevant.

Michelle, now *I’m* shocked

Hat tip to Janine in the Thunderdome for the heads up on this: Alt-folk singer songwriter Michelle Shocked has gone all the way  over to the Dark Side.

Those of us who’ve followed her over the years — myself, I’ve long been a  particular fan of Short Sharp Shocked and Arkansas Traveler — were disheartened over the last couple years as she became a so-called born again Xtian and, perhaps not coincidentally, went more or less to shit musically. But according to Queerty, she’s since completely lost the plot:

Michelle Shocked, an alt-folk singer who had success in the 1980s and ’90s, shocked audience members at Yoshi’s in San Francisco Sunday night with a homophobic rant that wound up clearing out the club.

The crowd had come, presumably, to hear songs like “Come a Long Way” and “On the Greener Side,” which got airplay on MTV back in the day. (“Greener Side” was even up for a VMA against Madonna’s “Vogue.”)

Instead they were treated to a tirade that allegedly included Shocked announcing “God hates fags.”

Matt Penfield, who was live-tweeting the show from onstage called her rant, delivered during her second set, “totally sincere [and] super anti-gay and hateful.”

We’re still trying to get the full text of her speech, but apparently she told fans “you can go on twitter and say Michelle Shocked said ‘God hates fags.’”

Another Twitter user posted that Shocked “said she lives in fear that the world will be destroyed if gays are allowed to marry.”

My disappointment in Shocked is only marginally leavened by fleeting amusement at a few commenters at Queerty who proudly say they’d never heard of her, as though their ignorance says anything about her importance to the Americana genre. Her descent into hate is a tragedy for the genre, and more importantly for the young people who might take her hate seriously.

One commenter over there does offer the perfect quote from a song on Arkansas Traveler, though: “The secret to a long life’s knowing when it’s time to go.”

Still alive

At this stage of my life, I must get out and walk at least a mile every day, or my tendons start to calcify and lock up, and every step turns into an agonizing process in which a little homunculus scurries about in my blood vessels and uses a pointy hammer to shatter the crystallized pulleys and levers and get the joints moving again. It’s not fun. It’s better if I make a daily effort to keep the limbs supple and well-oiled, and then everything runs smoothly all the time.

My next life-stage? I’ll either be constantly moving, restlessly shark-like, or I’ll be frozen stonily, a kind of Morris Giant. In the latter event, at least my wife will be able to sell me to a freak show, or even charge admission to see the terrifying antediluvian hominid.

Anyway, so I have to take a lubricating constitutional every single day. One catch today is that we’re in the waning phases of a blizzard…but that does not stop me. I don my layered apparel and brave the fierce assault of the frozen north lest I face the dreaded tendon-freeze. External frigidity is better than internal rigidity.

So I wandered through the drifting snow, waded over roads empty of all but snow-clearing vehicles, fought against chilling wind-blasts, felt the ice build up in my beard, was occasionally blinded by flurries stirred up by the fitful gusts, to end up here, in a coffee shop, thawing. Also typing as an act of procrastination — when I finish this, I have to swaddle, zip, and button up and stagger out again to fight my way home again. Right now I’m alive and limber and warm, but that could change. Everything could change. Nothing ever stays the same and it’s always bracing to do battle with one thing or another.

The alternative is that career as freak-show statue, I suppose, which at least sounds restful.

How not to read a graph

This ought to be on Skepchick’s Bad Chart Thursday. The Daily Mail — hey, why are you already groaning? — put up a graph to prove that global warming forecasts are WRONG. They say:

The graph on this page blows apart the ‘scientific basis’ for Britain reshaping its entire economy and spending billions in taxes and subsidies in order to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. These moves have already added £100 a year to household energy bills.

The estimates – given with 75 per cent and 95 per cent certainty – suggest only a five per cent chance of the real temperature falling outside both bands.

But when the latest official global temperature figures from the Met Office are placed over the predictions, they show how wrong the estimates have been, to the point of falling out of the ‘95 per cent’ band completely.

Now here’s the graph. Let’s see if you can detect where they mangled the interpretation.

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(Note: I haven’t looked to see whether the underlying data is correctly presented. I’m only examining the Mail’s ability to read their own chart.)

One error of interpretation is the claim that the ‘predictions’ were plotted in retrospect…as if the scientists had just made up the data. That’s not true — what they did was enter the same kinds of measurements available in the past as we have now, plug them into the computer as inputs, and let it generate predictions. This is an important part of testing the validity of the model — if it gave a poor fit to past data, we’d know not to trust it. That it worked well when giving the past 50 years worth of data is a positive result.

The big error of interpretation is to look at that graph and claim it demonstrates a “spectacular miscalculation.” To the contrary, it shows that the predictions so far have been right. As Lance Parkin says,

It’s an argument presented entirely in their own terms, using only data they presented, framed in language of their choosing. It’s been spun and distorted and shaped as much as they possibly can to get the result they want to get and it still says that the scientists who have consistently and accurately predicted that the world is warming were right. That’s their best shot? It’s rubbish.

Need a cleanser after seeing that? Here are ten charts interpreted correctly and demonstrating the reality of climate change.

People actually read the Daily Mail in the UK, huh? I guess it’s like the US’s Fox News…unaccountably popular.

Nightmare fuel

It’s morning here, so it’s probably safe to post this now. I read this article just before bed last night, and then I had a nightmare.

I dreamt that I walked into my classroom, and 50 pairs of eyes all turned to me, and they were all wearing Google Glass, and there were all these little red cyborg lights blinking at me. And there I was torn between the horror of my every word and expression being uploaded to Google’s servers, and…wanting one myself.

Don’t worry, though, I knew it was a dream, so I just flooded the whole room with salt water and shorted out their gadgets, and then I turned them all into mermaids and we…well, you don’t need to know.

But still! After the conversation about privacy yesterday, it was a bit worrisome.