So this is Christmas

I’ve noticed a trend. My childhood Christmases were raucus events, with my big extended family all cramming into our little houses, and we had two of them, one for each set of grandparents.

My adult Christmases were smaller but just as nice — me, my wife, the kids, and that was it. No grandparents because we’d moved a thousand miles away.

Now in my geezerhood, the parents and grandparents are all dead, my kids are scattered in a broad swathe from Tacoma to Kuwait, and my wife is pulling an early & long shift at work, so I’m home alone, no presents, no Xmas feast, no party of any kind.

I know! I’ll go to the lab and spend Christmas with the spiders!

The numbers are almost magical

I aspire to be a good vegetarian — we simply don’t eat any meat at home, although we do consume some stuff like Impossible Burgers now and then, a plant-based meat alternative. I can believe that plant-based foodstuff have significantly lower environmental impact, but then I read this claim by the Good Food Institute, and my skeptical ganglion started sending alarms.

Plant-based meat has, on average, 89 percent less environmental impact than traditional meat across all impact categories. Furthermore, plant-based meat’s environmental impact is 91 percent lower than beef, 88 percent lower than pork, and 71 percent lower than chicken.

Overall, plant-based meat uses 79 percent less land, 95 percent less water, and produces 93 percent water pollution [I assume that’s an error…93% less maybe?]. Efficient, low-impact meat alternatives also produce 89 percent fewer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 89 percent less air pollution.

That’s lovely. Amazing. Let’s quit killing cows, pigs, and chickens and start murdering soybeans. I can believe it’s better for the environment…but that much better? I tried tracking down how they calculated those numbers, and couldn’t find a detailed methodology, or even a peer-reviewed paper — it’s mostly corporate in-house stuff.

Unfortunately, I also found this on Wikipedia.

In 2018, GFI participated in the startup accelerator Y Combinator, receiving funding and strategic support. Y Combinator lists “cellular agriculture and clean meat” as one of its funding priorities, stating that “the world will massively benefit from a more sustainable, cheaper and more healthy production of meat”.

GFI has ties with the effective altruism movement, having received endorsements and financial support from several effective altruism-affiliated organizations. For instance, Open Philanthropy awarded GFI with several major grants in support of its general operations and international expansion, totalling $6.5 million as of August 2021.

Sam Harris’ Waking Up Foundation recommends GFI as one of its top charities.

Yikes. Suddenly, they have even less credibility.

I’m still going to consume plant-based meat, but now I have no idea how beneficial the stuff is, and I don’t trust the techbros touting it.

I do have one nagging question, though: if it uses so few resources, relatively speaking, how come processed soy protein and GMO yeast are so much more expensive than slaughtered cow? So it’s a new technology and is still working up economies of scale, but does silicon valley love it so much because somebody is profiting heavily from it?

The lurid, salacious, sensationalist news we all want to read!

The Gaetz report is trickling out.

From the report: “The Committee determined there is substantial evidence that Representative Gaetz violated House Rules and other standards of conduct prohibiting prostitution, statutory rape, illicit drug use, impermissible gifts, special favors or privileges, and obstruction of Congress.”

More: “The record overwhelmingly suggests that Representative Gaetz had sex with multiple women at a 2017 Florida party, including the then-17-year-old, for which they were paid… Victim A recalled receiving $400 in cash from Representative Gaetz that evening, which she understood to be payment for sex. At the time, she had just completed her junior year of high school. Victim A said that she did not inform Representative Gaetz that she was under 18 at the time, nor did he ask her age.”

I can’t compete. I could talk about my experiments in spider sex, but all that’s happened is that the males have been attentive but cautious with the females, and all the black widow couples have settled down into a quiet domesticated co-existence. It’s not exciting at all! None of them are even taking drugs.

At least I can say that black widow spiders have a more conventional sense of morality than Matt Gaetz. Unless this portrait of Gaetz is accurate.

Do not trust this man with your medicine!

Didier Raoult, quack

We all knew, way back in 2020, that the paper that launched the myth of hydroxychloroquine was total crap. In 2020!

The report was not a randomized clinical trial—one in which many people are followed to see how their health fares, not simply whether a virus is detectable. And Oz’s “100 percent” interpretation involves conspicuous omissions. According to the study itself, three other patients who received hydroxychloroquine were too sick to be tested for the virus by day six (they were intubated in the ICU). Another had a bad reaction to the drug and stopped taking it. Another was not tested because, by day six, he had died.

It was all about selective deletion of negative data to get a positive effect. Now, here in 2024, people are still saying exactly the same thing…well, not exactly, because they’ve also uncovered further problems in the study. Science says what everyone said all along!

The paper in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents (IJAA), led by Philippe Gautret of the Hospital Institute of Marseille Mediterranean Infection (IHU), claimed that treatment with hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug, reduced virus levels in samples from COVID-19 patients, and that the drug was even more effective if used alongside the antibiotic azithromycin. Then–IHU Director Didier Raoult, the paper’s senior author, enthused about the promise of the drug on social media and TV, leading to a wave of hype, including from then–U.S. President Donald Trump.

But scientists immediately raised concerns about the paper, noting the sample size of only 36 patients and the unusually short peer-review time: The paper was submitted on 16 March 2020 and published 4 days later. On 24 March, scientific integrity consultant Elisabeth Bik noted on her blog that six patients who were treated with hydroxychloroquine had been dropped from the study—one of whom had died, and three of whom had transferred to intensive care—which potentially skewed the results in the drug’s favor. Larger, more rigorous trials carried out later in 2020 showed hydroxychloroquine did not benefit COVID-19 patients.

Critics of Raoult’s paper have pointed out more damning problems since. In an August 2023 letter published in Therapies, Bik and colleagues noted the cutoff for classifying a polymerase chain reaction test as positive was different in the treatment and control groups. The letter also raised questions about whether the study had received proper ethical approval, and noted an editorial conflict of interest: IJAA’s editor-in-chief at the time, Jean-Marc Rolain, was also one of the authors. (A statement saying he had not been involved in peer review was later added to the paper.) The letter called for the paper to be retracted.

A bad study with weak statistics and manipulated data that led to millions of people doping themselves with a medication that was worse than useless against COVID — and people are still taking it — but it was the simplistic, magic pill that they wanted. The doctors might have rejected it, but Joe Rogan and Dr Oz endorsed it.

There is good news. The paper has finally been retracted, well after it has already done harm.

The corresponding author, Didier Raoult, dissents. He disagrees with all the scientists all around the world who looked at his sloppy work four years ago and said that this should have been rejected from the get-go. This is not surprising: he looks like a terrible hack.

According to the notice, the three authors who raised concerns about the paper “no longer wish to see their names associated with the article.” Gautret and several other authors told the investigators they disagreed with the retraction, and the investigators did not receive a response from Raoult, the corresponding author. To date, 32 papers published by IHU authors have been retracted, 28 of them co-authored by Raoult, and 243 have expressions of concern.

28 garbage papers? I don’t know how many papers this guy has published, the only notable metric is his significant contributions to bad science.

MAGA means imperialism

Watch out, Greenland (and Denmark!)

| am pleased to announce Ken Howery as my choice for United States Ambassador to the Kingdom of Denmark. Ken is a World renowned entrepreneur, investor, and public servant, who served our Nation brilliantly during my First Term as U.S. Ambassador to Sweden, where he led efforts to increase Defense, Security, and Economic Cooperation between our Countries. As a Co-Founder of PayPal and venture capital fund, Founders Fund, Ken turned American Innovation and Tech leadership into Global success stories, and that experiencegy will be invaluable in representing us abroac#or purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity. Ken will do a wonderful job in representing the interests of the United States. Thank you Ken, and congratulations!

Watch out, Panama!

Donald Trump suggested Sunday that his new administration could try to regain control of the Panama Canal that the United States “foolishly” ceded to its Central American ally, contending that shippers are charged “ridiculous” fees to pass through the vital transportation channel linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Panama’s conservative president José Raúl Mulino, who was elected in May on a pro-business platform, roundly rejected that notion as an affront to his country’s sovereignty.

He is inspired by Putin, and wants to launch a few militaristic adventures. To start with, he’s selecting easy targets — it won’t take many troops to overwhelm Greenland, but Panama might be a little harder, given that we have plenty of bombs, but bombs disrupt traffic. The aftermath, when the entire world mistrusts us, might be much tougher. Let’s hope that congress and the courts (yeah, right) can check his bloody ambitions.

You know, the UK has managed to isolate itself from the rest of Europe, making itself vulnerable…

A common thread among billionaires

Angela Collier points out a bizarre thing these billionaires do: these people — Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk — are all college dropouts who couldn’t even finish an undergraduate degree, but now they all claim that they could have been physicists. Apparently anyone can be a physicist. No, wait, that’s not it, physicists have a reputation for being supersmart so these intellectual losers are all pretending to have an interest in physics for the reputation theft — these guys are going to grift everything.

I guess I’m not very bright because I never even wanted to be a physicist and was much more impressed with biologists like François Jacob or Lewis Wolpert or Rachel Carson or Rita Levi-Montalcini. Also, I not only completed my undergraduate degree, I finished a Ph.D. Dumb! Dumb dumb dumb.

If you can make it through the first half hour, you might also be amused at her take on Ayn Rand. She read Atlas Shrugged and enjoyed it because it was so ridiculous that she thought it was a satire. I can see that, but I’m still not going to slog through anything written by Rand.

The imagery that should scare the wealthy

I’m noticing a troubling but interesting phenomenon: the sanctification of Saint Luigi.

I don’t care for this at all — it’s more than just my anti-religious attitude, but that given Luigi Mangione’s privileged background I doubt that he’s the class hero anyone expects. The over-reaction by the establishment is what’s driving this, though. I don’t think they’re going to calm their freakout, this trial is going to be a media spectacle and it’s going to get worse. You would think villains would realize that creating a public martyr and exhibiting fear is the last thing you want to do. I do wonder if Mangione is going to get an opportunity to orate on the stand, and if he’s going to be any good at it.

On the other hand, I can understand the response. Assassination is a common thing in America. Think about it: my earliest memory of a news event is the JFK assassination. Then there was the RFK assassination. Martin Luther King jr, Malcolm X. Harvey Milk. Everything the CIA did — they tried hard to assassinate Fidel Castro, and failed…but succeeded all over the place in Latin America. It’s hypocritical for Americans to be outraged at any one particular assassination, but maybe this time it’s because the target lacked any taint of leftiness, since those are the only acceptable political murder victims. Uh-oh. What do you mean, rich conservatives might get killed? That’s not the game.

And maybe it’s starting to sink in that also, in America, we have handed everyone a gun. Maybe a few dim capitalists are waking up to the danger they have created for themselves.

I don’t want anyone to get murdered, but…if someone Luigi’d Elon Musk I’d run out and buy cake and ice cream and have a party at home. There’s a whole class of overpaid morons that could be gunned down in a mass uprising that wouldn’t trigger a single tear drop from me, and I might even think we’d improve society by removing them.

They’re quite right to charge Luigi Mangione with terrorism. He’s one little molecule getting heated up in a pot that’s close to boiling, and he could inspire a lot of other people to undergo a phase shift. The powers that be should be terrified.

Halfway across the state and back again

Cars are an expensive pain in the butt. It was time to do some maintenance on the Honda, but the nearest Honda dealer is in St Cloud, so I had to get up early and drive across the state on icy snowy roads to get it serviced. They were quick and bounced me right back on the road to head home again.

I don’t do much driving any more, so this was an opportunity to while away the miles playing old tunes. For some reason, I fired up my old collection of 60s and 70s music. Joan Baez! Laura Nyro!


I got fury in my soul, fury’s gonna take me to the glory goal
In my mind I can’t study war no more
Save the people, save the children
Save the country, save the country, save the country

I think we need to bring back the 60s — the hippies had the right idea. Sure, they were a little vague on how to save the country, but we’ve had over 50 years to think on it. I’m sure we’ve got a plan by now, right?