While the mask mandates are going down…

It’s worth looking at the actual evidence that we’re in the midst of an airborne pandemic that targets the respiratory system. Here’s an article in The Lancet on ten scientific reasons in support of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2. It’s short, but I’ll make it even shorter.

1. superspreading events account for substantial SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
2. long-range transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between people in adjacent rooms but never in each other’s presence has been documented in quarantine hotels.
3. asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from people who are not coughing or sneezing is likely to account for at least a third, and perhaps up to 59%, of all transmission globally.
4. transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is higher indoors than outdoors.
5. nosocomial infections have been documented in health-care organisations, where there have been strict contact-and-droplet precautions and use of personal protective equipment (PPE) designed to protect against droplet but not aerosol exposure.
6. viable SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in the air.
7. SARS-CoV-2 has been identified in air filters and building ducts in hospitals with COVID-19 patients.
8. studies involving infected caged animals that were connected to separately caged uninfected animals via an air duct have shown transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that can be adequately explained only by aerosols.
9. no study to our knowledge has provided strong or consistent evidence to refute the hypothesis of airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
10. there is limited evidence to support other dominant routes of transmission—ie, respiratory droplet or fomite.

Vaccines are great and a solid long-term solution to the pandemic, but why are we talking about removing mask mandates again? Shouldn’t we instead be promoting improved ventilation in public schools, for instance? Are our scientifically illiterate leaders only listening to the scientifically illiterate permanently whiny chickenshit contingent instead of scientists now? We seem to be promoting do-nothing approaches that minimize inconvenience to the most selfish, inconsiderate members of society.

Are some people becoming desensitized to the threat of millions dead?

I think so. It’s certainly the case in the US, where people protest the imposition of mask-wearing over the corpses of a million dead Americans, but this is something else. It’s a post from Adam Something, whose work I normally appreciate, but this is insane.

Let’s talk a bit about nuclear war.

As the invasion falters, Putin will be making more and more nuclear threats – the only thing he has left. These will most likely be just that: threats. I doubt him, or the Russian elite is suicidal.

If it came to nuclear war, Russia would essentially be deleted from the face of the planet, while the West would generally survive in some form or another.

A nuclear war right now would not be the end of humanity. Sure, it would suck, and by that I mean a LOT of people dying, at least a billion plus. However, it wouldn’t erase life from the planet.

Our goal must never be the ‘deletion’ of Russia. There are 140+ million Russian people who deserve as much right to survival, and peace and happiness, as everyone else in the world. Incinerating them in a nuclear war is not a desirable result, ever, under any circumstances. That the West would “survive” does not excuse the act, and “survival” has a wide range of meanings. How many of these Western people would die? If one hundred survive, is that a victory?

Humanity not going extinct is an awfully low standard to meet. A “mere” billion dead is not a trivial number, and I think he’s lowballing it. A limited tactical strike on some battlefields, sure, casualties could be limited, but if we trigger a world-wide spasm of major powers targeting the civilian populations of their opponents, that billion is only what dies immediately…then the collapse of civilian infrastructure follows, killing more, and the riots and wars that break out kill even more, and then the world famine destroys yet more.

Consider how most of our media (movies, games, etc) dealing with nuclear war takes place during the cold war, or its fictional continuation. At that point we did have enough nukes to format the planet. However, since then we have decommissioned 80% of our total nuclear arsenal, meaning a nuclear war would be fought with only a fifth of the firepower.

Also, not all our (as in: humanity’s) nukes are ICBMs. Many of them can’ t even be deployed unless you haul it above a city with a plane. Many are “just” warheads sitting in warehouses, and couldn’t immediately be launched. This is especially true to Russia, as they would be deleted long before any of those warheads could be used.

Another thing to consider is how those strikes would be distributed. Russia has to blanket the whole of Europe and US, possibly more, while the West only has to strike Russian strategic targets. This is a guaranteed death sentence for the Russian elite, including Putin. Hence I don’t think he’ll press the button, or even if he tried, he’d end up with a hole in his head.

Yes, we have gradually reduced the size of nuclear arsenals. But one-fifth of overkill is still mass murder.

Also, assassinating Putin and his cronies sounds like the most desirable outcome of such a war…but this is the crudest, clumsiest, ugliest way of achieving that end. It requires killing tens of millions (at the least) ordinary, innocent Russians to stop a handful of criminals.

Then the following is pollyannaish nonsense:

Otherwise radiation from nuclear bombs dissipates very quickly. You know how in Fallout games everything is still radioactive after 200 years? As far as I know that’s bullshit.
48 hours after the strike, the radiation will have already gone down by 99%, and at 72 hours it should be safe to come out. The tricky part is to not be in the blast radius, or at least be in a basement when a strike happens near you. That, or a sturdy enough building, in which case you should stay in the middle, on the lowest floor. Don’t go to upper floors, as fallout will accumulate on the roof.
Food and drink in closed containers that were inside during the strike should be generally safe to consume, so chances are you won’t die of hunger or dehydration.

To sum up, Putin will threaten with nukes, but it’s unlikely he will actually use them. Even if he does though, the world won’t end, plus your chances of survival aren’t bad if the bomb wasn’t dropped directly on you, and you can stick it out in a basement for 3 days.

Pure madness. Just avoid being in the blast radius! You’re safe as long as you stay in the basement! Fallout will only accumulate on the roof! Also on all the acreage dedicated to growing your food, and on all the reservoirs that supply your drinking water. You won’t die of hunger or dehydration right away, that’s true, but how long will the canned food and bottled water in your house last? Haven’t we learned already about how supply chains can be disrupted? This is a survivalist fantasy, and I hate it.

It is true that biology is remarkably resilient, and we won’t get that video game/syfy movie nonsense of monstrous mutants roaming a radioactive wasteland. Even in the best of circumstances, where the victims are an isolated population that can be supported by the remainder of society, you’re going to see a surge in cancer incidence over many years, and even longer term effects on mental health and social interactions. People have studied these things in great detail. You can look up the long-term consequences of the atomic bombing in Hiroshima, for instance, and it wasn’t over after 3 days.

This paper examines long-term consequences of one of the most serious catastrophes ever inflicted on humankind: the atomic bombing that occurred in Hiroshima in 1945. While many victims died immediately or within a few years of the bombing, there were many negative effects on survivors in terms of both health and social/economic aspects that could last many years. Of these two life factors, health and social/economic aspects, the latter has largely been ignored by researchers. We investigate possible long-lasting effects using a new dataset covering the middle and older generations in Hiroshima some 60 years after the tragedy. Our empirical results show that Atomic Bomb Survivors did not necessarily suffer unfavorable life experiences in terms of the average marriage status or educational attainment but did experience significant disadvantages some aspects including the husband/wife combination of married couples, work status, mental health, and expectations for the future. Thus, survivors have suffered for many years after the catastrophe itself.

That’s an analysis of the survivors, and doesn’t include the 200,000 dead, obviously. We’re talking decades of suffering from a single relatively small and primitive nuclear bomb.

Don’t downplay the threat and dangers of nuclear war. Keep it up and you’ll find Jim Bakker running advertisements for his food buckets on your YouTube channel.

One other thing I have to mention: my views on this subject are a product of the 1960s-1980s. In particular, a big influence was George Streisinger, who most of you might have heard of for his essential work as a pioneer of zebrafish research. But also, at the same time, he was a major activist working against nuclear war and for disarmament. There was a whole cadre of biologists at that time who started out as physicists during WWII who then switched to genetics and molecular biology; George was a Hungarian Jew who fled that country to escape the Nazis, and studied viral genetics. He would be shocked to learn that some people now regard nuclear war as a minor setback in their goal of exterminating their enemies.

He was one of the good guys. I’ll always be on his side.

Myers vs. Meyers: the final, ultimate showdown

I will finally get to the bottom of this. I have discovered that there will be a YouTube interview with the notorious PZ Meyers today at 6pm Central, and I intend to hunt him down and confront him over his long history of stalking me. I will crash this video and tackle the horrible (although, admittedly, handsome) rascal and settle this once and for all.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t show up, though. Meyers is a coward who has been dodging me for decades.

Conservative Christian Comedian is an oxymoron

Matt Powell posted a new video last night — it’s a prank, just for fun. He also says This video was made for one of the channel followers who is on his death bed. Want him to be able to have a good laugh… God bless! I’m not going to link to it, but I’ll summarize. Powell drives up to some local businesses — a fast food place, a tire store, a Walmart, etc. — waves over an employee, and says that he just wanted to let them know he’s opening a competing store just down the road, and he’s not afraid of them. This gets nothing but baffled looks from his victims.

That’s it. That’s all it is, multiple times.

Somebody explain it to me. It must be some kind of in-joke, but it’s feeble in conception and execution, if it is.

Also, if I’m dying, and I ask you to tell me something funny so I can laugh one more time, could you please do a better job than Powell? I think maybe you better practice your best jokes in the comments, because if you do something like this pathetic performance by Matt Powell, I’m going to be so disappointed and pissed off.

Some celebration

Last night was the night we celebrated our wedding anniversary, and wow, but I am exhausted this morning.

Get your brain out of the gutter. It wasn’t like that.

We went out to a movie — Marry Me, a silly little trifle with an absurd premise (big famous pop star, Jennifer Lopez, discovers the man she was about to marry was cheating on her, so she picks a random guy out of her audience, Owen Wilson, and asks him to marry her. He accepts. Best part of the movie was when they go through the ceremony, the guy is asked “do you take this woman yadda yadda”, and he answers “OK” in a nasal Owen Wilson voice. Perfect. The rest was anticlimactic.)

Normally, I wouldn’t even consider going to this kind of movie, but it seemed thematically appropriate to the occasion.

You might think the evening had nowhere to go but up from there, except…when we visited our granddaughter earlier this week, she had a bad cold and a runny nose. Guess who got it? Me. I have been turned into a horrible snot monster. That’s an actual photo of me. I’ll spare you the sound effects, which are gross and glurbly.

Bad enough, you say, but then Mary got savagely sick. More ghastly wimperings, lying on the bathroom floor, I was kicked out of my slimy sleeping nest a few times.

Then the cat started vomiting in sympathy.

And now, my spring break is more than half over, and I have to get grading done.

Forty Two (42)

This week’s number is much nicer than last week’s number. Not only is it the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything, it’s also our 42nd anniversary, which means this must be the year we finally get it. What “it” is remains to be determined…maybe it’s the secret to living happily together with another human being for an indefinite length of time? That would be a good one. We seem to have wordlessly figured it out, but it would be nice if I were able to put it into words and sell it as one of those saccharine self-help books that make millions of dollars.

More short-sighted stupidity from an institution of higher learning

The university will have to get me one of these masks if they expect me to be nice to COVIDiots.

It’s official. The University of Minnesota is taking tentative steps to dismantle mask requirements. I’ll still have to wear them in the classroom (I’m not planning to discontinue that, no matter what the administration says), but you can go to football games, plays, and social events without them now.

For our faculty, staff, and student workers in instructional, clinical, and transit settings, face coverings will continue to be required. Additional information on where and when masks may be required is available from Safe Campus.

Those who work in other settings—including residential housing, dining facilities, and offices—will not be required to wear a mask while at work. However, you may continue to wear a mask in these settings based on your personal preference and expect support from your coworkers and leaders in creating a positive workplace that is welcoming and respectful.

It’s too soon. We’re always doing this — backing off on the preventive measures as soon as they show signs that they’re working. And then everyone is going to act surprised when we get another spike!

I’m also a little peeved at that admonition to be “welcoming and respectful” to the conspiracy theorists, like this guy, who is a pastor in Benson, just an hour away.

…Jason Wolter, is a thoughtful, broad-shouldered Lutheran pastor who reads widely and measures his words carefully. He also suspects Democrats are using the coronavirus pandemic as a political tool, doubts President Joe Biden was legitimately elected and is certain that COVID-19 vaccines kill people.

He hasn’t seen the death certificates and hasn’t contacted health authorities, but he’s sure the vaccine deaths occurred: I just know that I’m doing their funerals.

He’s also certain that information will never make it into the newspaper.

Wolter’s frustration boils over during a late breakfast in a town cafe. Seated with a reporter, he starts talking as if Anfinson is there.

You’re lying to people, he says. You flat-out lie about things.

No, he is not thoughtful, he doesn’t read widely, and he doesn’t measure his words carefully. He’s a dogmatic, blinkered COVIDiot, and no, I’m not going to be welcoming and respectful towards that kind of inane attitude. We’re going to get another spike thanks to the people who think we have to make nice with the ignorant.

If you want to see what I anticipate for our future, look to China.

In Shenzhen, officials ordered the city’s more than 17 million people to stay at home starting on Monday through March 20, after just 150 new cases were reported over the weekend.

The city is home to key Chinese companies like Huawei, electric carmaker BYD and Tencent. Apple supplier Foxconn suspended operations, as did circuit board makers Sunflex and Unimicron, also a supplier to Apple and Intel.

Authorities in the northeastern province of Jilin on Monday barred its 24 million residents from leaving, marking the first time officials have sealed an entire province since January 2020 when Hubei was put under lockdown.

Health officials said hospitals were overrun because of the rapid increase in cases since Friday. The province recorded more than 4,605 coronavirus cases on Saturday, while 3,868 residents have tested positive in preliminary tests but were not yet included in the official tally, officials said.

Somebody is smart enough to see that when 150 people sneeze, it’s a harbinger of millions getting flattened by a disease. We’re not that clever. We’re instead sending out memos telling us to be welcoming and respectful to plague rats.

Hey, check out Hong Kong.

There are no funeral ceremonies for some of the hundreds of elderly Hong Kong residents dying every day of covid. Their bodies are instead sealed in plastic bags and then quickly cremated, freeing up space at the morgue for more arrivals.

Hong Kong — a wealthy financial center — now has the highest covid death rate in the developed world. More than 2,300 people have died since the start of the city’s most recent outbreak, compared with just 213 in the two years prior. Those dying are overwhelmingly elderly, unvaccinated residents, but they also include toddlers and children too young to be immunized.

Gosh. Those vaccines must be killing all those unvaccinated elderly people and children.

We’ll never learn.

A productive weekend!

We vanished for the weekend and went out into the great wide world for a day and two nights. We got a lot done, even masked and avoiding most other human beings.

  • We visited our son Alaric in St Cloud. He’s doing well, his only complaint right now is that it’s impossible to get his hands on a PS5, which tells me he’s not facing any major worries right now.
  • We upgraded our phones, something we’ve put off for a few years, even as screens cracked and their batteries got weaker and weaker. We now get 5G, which is great, since it means our brains are also mutating to receive telepathic signals from the Pleiades, and our new third eyes are beginning to erupt. The downside: a few hours spent getting them all reconnected with our passwords.*
  • I got my birthday present. We stopped by Cabela’s and I got a pair of good hiking boots. Some of my pedal miseries lately have been a consequence of always picking up the cheapest pair of shoes possible, and wearing them to destruction (it doesn’t take all that long, cheap shoes last about a year). Now I’ve got a solid pair of boots with firm ankle support and a good fit. We’ll see if they help.
  • We visited our daughter, Skatje, in Wisconsin. She’s finishing up a PhD in computational linguistics, and her subspecialty is Russian. She’s not happy about the situation over there, but she’s very much into the Russian culture and language. So we had syrniki for breakfast. Do not speak to me of the decadent West, when Slavs eat fried cheesecake for breakfast.
  • Then of course we also played with Iliana all day long. I had forgotten how exhausting kids are at three.

Now we are home again. It’s time to get back into my mundane responsibilities.

*Passwords ought to be trivial, except I’m too old. I was an early adopter of the Mac (1984!) and signed up for mac.com network a few years later, which is now defunct. But every time I upgrade an Apple device, it insists on avidly taking up the mac.com network identity and telling me to log in to an extinct service in order to prove I am who I say I am.

Learning more about Russia than I expected

Today, I have ended up in Wisconsin, just for the day, and I thought it was going to be time to play with a 3-year-old. But hey, here’s an interview with Stephen Kotkin that I thought was a solid overview of the Russian perspective. And it turns out my daughter Skatje is a moderator for r/russian, and knows a fair bit about the language. I should have expected that, since she’s working on a PhD in computational linguistics and specializes in the Russian language. Russian is close enough to Ukrainian that she can read that, too.

Anyway, I’m busy for a day. Three year olds are not that interested in Russian politics.