Once upon a time, I accused Nate Silver of being “a numerologist, or a horse race handicapper, and I suspected he was juggling the numbers to fit his expectations”. I was not very perceptive, and I missed the heart of Silver’s problem. He’s a gambling addict. I shouldn’t be surprised.

He has come out with a new book, essentially a confession, titled On the Edge, a 572-page doorstop that is actually a gambling manual. He has this mentality where the purpose of predictions is to win and win big, and he’s constantly angling for the risky bet that pays off on long odds.

This is the blurb for the book.

In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates “the River,” the community of like-minded people whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life.

These professional risk-takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.

I fwowed up in my mouth a little bit. You, too, can be just like these con artists and charlatans — it’s the future of finance and AI!

Here’s the revelation that shocked me.

Whoa. He’s gambling $10,000 a day on basketball? If you had a friend who was throwing away that much on his gambling habit, wouldn’t you take them aside and suggest that they get help?

Notice also that he was churning $1.8 million into his daily betting routine between October and May, and at the end he comes out ahead…by about $5000. That’s some return on investment.

Also, I don’t believe him. I had an uncle who was addicted to betting on horse races, who claimed to have a system, who told me that on average he was coming out ahead, just like Nate Silver’s graph. Unfortunately, he was somehow living in poverty, getting by marginally, unable to afford the basics, and we’d just sometimes learn that he’d made a big score because he’d come home staggeringly drunk. The only people who profit in the long run from gambling are the race track owners and the bookies and the guys who run the liquor concessions.

I will say that hardcore gambling does have one useful outcome: it’s practitioners tend to be pretty glib about rationalizing their results. Somehow I’m not surprised that a gambling addict can write a 572 page book to justify his methods.

Just asking. I inherited this great big pile of 8mm film recordings made by my grandfather and father in the 1960s and 1970s and 1980s, which were pretty much unviewable — have you got an 8mm projector lying around? So I dropped them off at a Walmart Photocenter along with $650 to have them converted to digital. They’re sitting in Seattle right now, and I thought it would be a while until I could see them…but, you know, digital, so I just got an email saying I could view them over this thing called the internet.

Oh my god.

There’s my childhood, laid out in grainy, poorly lit, soundless, washed-out color. Christmases and camping trips, my great-grandparents alive again, my grandfather looking hale and sober, my grandmother middle-aged and strong, my father digging clams and picking up his kids, my mother in her 20s looking good, and all my siblings back again. I only had a few minutes to skim through these hours of film, but later I’ll have to watch them thoroughly and wallow in the old days.

Here, for instance, is me hugging my late brother sometime in the early 1960s.

If I’m found dead, drowned in a puddle of tears later this week, you’ll know what happened.

I’m going to upload these many recordings to YouTube to make them accessible to the rest of my family — no one else in the world will care but these are like jewels of ancient cinematography to me.

My son occasionally sends us photos from his location in the Middle East. I thought living in a small rural town in the Midwest was a little less than stimulating, but here’s sunset in Kuwait.

It looks a little strange because there’s a sandstorm about to blow in. The next day…

Next time we get a blizzard or whiteout, I’ll look at that and think, “it could be worse” (which is a very Minnesota thing to say, by the way.)

It’s that time of year when my wife’s garden bears fruit and it’s my turn to get to work in the kitchen. I get to spend my day rendering tomatoes and peppers and onions and garlic into sauce.

Then I have to prepare a lecture that tries to answer the question, “where did prehistoric people think humans came from.” Fortunately, we have a prehistoric historical document.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Elon Musk is a historic flop.

The $13 billion that Elon Musk borrowed to buy Twitter has turned into the worst merger-finance deal for banks since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

The seven banks involved in the deal, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, lent the money to the billionaire’s holding company to take the social-media platform, now named X, private in October 2022. Banks that provide loans for takeovers generally sell the debt quickly to other investors to get it off their balance sheets, making money on fees.

The banks haven’t been able to offload the debt without incurring major losses—largely because of X’s weak financial performance—leaving the loans stuck on their balance sheets, or “hung” in industry jargon. The resulting write-downs have hobbled the banks’ loan books and, in one case, was a factor that crimped compensation for a bank’s merger department, according to people involved with the deal.

The value of the loans to Musk quickly soured after the $44 billion acquisition was completed. But new analysis shows how their persistent underperformance has put the deal in historic territory.

I’m slightly sympathetic. I too was in debt to the Bank of America, but then I paid off my mortgage last month. If I’d been able to take out a $13 billion loan I wouldn’t be paying it off, either.

I wouldn’t be able to take out that loan anyway, because I lack “allure”.

The banks that agreed to underwrite a deal that even Musk said was overvalued did so largely because the allure of banking the world’s richest person was too attractive to pass up, according to people involved in the deal.

You’d think banks would be hard-headed and practical about this sort of thing, but no, they fell for “allure”.

I kind of enjoyed Alien: Romulus. It’s a solid, workmanlike ‘haunted house in space’ movie — creepy, scary, and, unfortunately, familiar. If you like Alien, you’ll like Alien: Romulus because at it’s heart it’s exactly the same movie with different set dressing.

I had the leisure to think about what I was seeing, since the plot wasn’t much of a distraction, and I found myself wondering about the biology of the xenomorphs. There’s a lot of silliness there. One small thing I noticed was how slow and awkward the xenomorphs are. No real predator would stop and vogue in front of its prey, slowly opening its jaws to extend a second set of jaws while hissing and dripping. It’s become an indispensable trope in these movies, and sure, it’s intended to slowly ramp up the tension, but that’s not how predators act.

I feed spiders twice a week. Here’s how they act: they take their time prepping. They go on alert when something stumbles into their web, orienting themselves and rising up on their legs and paying close attention. That could be a terrifying moment in the scary movie, with that moment of tension, but when it is time to attack, they don’t delay — they move fast. They dart forward, immobilize the prey with more silk or a swift bite. They don’t stupidly pose prior to trying to disable the big creature they want to eat.

Maybe you’re not acquainted with spiders. I’ve also been attacked by a dog. It did not run up to my leg, stop, cock its head, snarl, and then slowly try to bite my calf (try, because I pedaled my bike and got away). If you’re making your living by killing your food, you don’t make it a cinematic experience, you get the business over with as quickly as possible.

Another thing that bugged me was all the slime. I don’t object to wet puppets, but the action is all taking place on a big metal ship. Where is all that water dripping off these aliens coming from? Wouldn’t a ship be equipped with dehumidifiers to extract all that water out of the environment? I know there were several scenes with partially flooded chambers, but why? I’m sure condensation is an issue in a ship, but in the future, ships in the vacuum of space don’t need to conserve air and water? How nice for them.

I’m not going to try to address the energetic cost of synthesizing and containing a highly reactive substance in their blood that has the ability dissolve its way through multiple levels of a metal spaceship.

Not as a genius, not as a real-life Tony Stark, not as a champion of free speech, because you’re none of those things. You’re a guy who bought a hagiographer to hide your flaws and amplify your accomplishments. Unfortunately, you also have weird beliefs about spawning lots of children, which means you created witnesses to your real nature.

Vivian Wilson is at it again. This time her focus is on Walter Isaacson, the hack who wrote Musk’s biography, and this piece on Threads is going to be a big chunk of his reputation. Hooray for free speech!

Let’s talk about the Walter Isaacson book. For those of you unaware, he wrote a biography about Elon in which I am featured. This is what I have to say on the matter. It’s a bit heavy, so bear with me.

To Walter Isaacson, you threw me to the wolves in what was one of the most humiliating experiences of my entire life. Elon was your darling Tony Stark apartheid-american hero with a semi-tragic backstory who was saving the world and you were too fucking cowardly to write anything other than a sad excuse for a puff-piece. To further this goal, you portrayed me in a light that is genuinely defamatory and I’m not going to mince my words.

I was treated as a VILLAIN BACKSTORY-ORIGIN to excuse or explain away his behavior. As if my whole existence was nothing but an inconvenience to HIM. God bless the poor soul who abused his child, that must be so fucking hard for him. I was deadnamed, and misgendered for no conceivable reason and made to seem like I was just too stupid or too “communist” or too brainwashed or too what-fucking-ever to understand the 4d chess behind the reasons I was traumatized.

My identity was trivialized, my reasons for seperation were misconstrued, and I was treated as naïve; stupid, unfairly unforgiving and unreasonably moralistic. Worst of all, this was the section that was released early as part of the “promo” because you knew it would catch headlines as part of this culture war bullshit. You knew that conservatives and ‘reactionaries’ would take this and run as far as they could with it to get clicks, or to smear my name for their own self interests.

I was never asked, interviewed, or contacted to say anything for this poor excuse of pages you call a book. I know that you claim that you “reached out to me through family members” but I found out about this thing’s existence literally a MONTH before it was released. So either you are completely fucking incompetent at the most basic aspects of your “job”, or you are weaponizing your own lack of effort to try to lift the blame off of yourself because you knew damn well what you were doing.

I know for a goddamn fucking fact that you had the information necessary to contact me directly and you didn’t. It’s not exactly neuroscience when all you had to do was ask for my fucking phone number. Therefore, this “omg we like totally tried….” act isn’t gonna work. You deliberately failed because you knew the angle you were going for, and that my testimony would’ve fucked up your pretty little portrayal of an irredeemable human being.

I was content to sit in my silence up until now and to be your queer villain. You knew that I was gonna be used as an example of “how the children are being brainwashed by the trans agenda” because you did it yourself and then proceeded to blast it to every news organization to use as an ad to sell more copies. The fact that this book may have been used as justification by parents to not let their trans child obtain potentially life-saving medical treatment fucking HAUNTS me. It always will.

I’ve been waiting on talking about this subject because it genuinely hurts so much to remember. That memory of sobbing my eyes out in a dormitory worrying that I didn’t have a future because of the damage this thing did to my reputation will forever stay with me. You, your editors, and your publisher are a fucking joke for letting this thing be released into the public. I had to see posters of this thing for MONTHS afterwards.

I go by Vivian by the way, not Jenna as the book implies. Jenna is what my friends from high school and my mom calls me. If you genuinely knew what you were talking about that’s how you would’ve referred to me. It is genuinely impressive that you somehow managed to find a way to even fuck up my NAME. I think that goes to show how much research actually went into this. I am not letting this narrative continue any further.

I must request that people don’t seek out and send hate to Isaacson, I don’t think that reflects well on anyone.