Blessing or blasphemy?

I’ve got to wonder: would the Inquisition give the maker of this toy a benediction, or would they tie him to a stick and set him on fire?

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Also, could you get your money back if the loaves and fishes don’t multiply, or if the glow-in-the-dark hands fail to heal your skinned knee?

Let’s not even think about all the drunk kids reeling about when they use his power to turn water into wine.

How not to evaluate a big science program

Nicholas Wade of the NY Times has written one of those stories that make biologists cringe — it just gets so much wrong. It’s a look back at the human genome project, and I was turned off at the first paragraph. The HGP was badly marketed from the very beginning in the sense that there was a misrepresentation of the scientific goals; it was well-marketed if your goal was wringing money out of congress. Unfortunately, now we’ve got to deal with science writers complaining that nobody has generated any miracle cures from all that work. Pay attention to what Harold Varmus said:

“Genomics is a way to do science, not medicine,” said Harold Varmus, president of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York, who in July will become the director of the National Cancer Institute.

The genome is a basic research tool, not a recipe book for curing diseases. I can’t entirely blame Wade for complaining about this, though, since some prominent people like Francis Collins were selling the HGP as the first step in generating a panacea.

But Wade ought to be embarrassed at the rampant linear ladder thinking in his article. Both Jonathan Eisen and Larry Moran take him to task for that — he makes this error-filled statement:

The barely visible roundworm needs 20,000 genes that make proteins, the working parts of cells, whereas humans, apparently so much higher on the evolutionary scale, seem to have only 21,000 protein-coding genes.

Humans aren’t high on the evolutionary scale…there is no evolutionary scale. We aren’t the pinnacle of anything. It’s also weird to see people still expressing astonishment that we “only” have about 20,000 genes. Way, way back in the dim and distant past, when I was a lowly undergraduate in 1977 (AD, I think), my genetics professor, Larry Sandler, lectured to us about how Drosophila was thought to have about 10-15,000 genes and humans might have about twice that…but that when you looked at the C-value paradox (that the quantity of DNA in organisms doesn’t correlate at all well with our perceptions of complexity), it really didn’t mean much, especially since we didn’t (and still don’t) know what most of those genes do. In the early days of the HGP there was a mad flurry of speculation, mostly from people with economic interests in more genes, that there were 100-200,000 genes, but everyone who knew anything about genetics gave those a squinty cynical look.

Apparently, there’s going to be a second article in this series from Wade: “Next: Drug companies stick with genomics but struggle with information overload.” Please. If you want to do a retrospective on the impact of the human genome project, don’t go talking to the drug companies.

Bumblin’ Midgley babbles again

Is Mary Midgley supposed to be the epitome of philosophical confusion and bungling incomprehension? She’s like the Emily Litella of science criticism, always going off on harebrained tangents of her own invention, but unlike Litella, nothing ever compels her to offer a meek “Never mind”. Midgely has done it again with another tirade against the New Atheists.

Science really isn’t connected to the rest of life half as straightforwardly as one might wish. For instance, Isaac Newton noted gladly that his theory of gravitation gave a scientific proof of God’s existence. Today’s anti-god warriors, by contrast, declare that Darwin’s evolutionary theory gives a scientific disproof of that existence and use this reasoning, quite as confidently as Newton used his, to convert the public.

But…but…none of the New Atheists claim to have a disproof of gods! We’re all rather explicit in saying that we can’t disprove every possible formulation of a deity, and we’re not even going to try.

We could just stop there, since especially for a philosopher, she seems exceedingly confused about just what the argument is about, but let’s push on and see what kind of point she’s trying to make.

In both cases the huge prestige of science is being used not for scientific purposes but to defend an existing general world-view. In both cases that defence is found necessary because this world-view, though prevalent and respected, has been coming under attack. And in both cases the supposedly scientific argument provided is weak. It only convinces people who already share that world-view.

Naturally, Newton’s arguments scarcely need refuting today. Though he was not a Christian, he reasoned that gravity cannot be physically caused because it acts at a distance and material causes were believed always to work by contact, leaving God – a “god of the gaps” – as the only possible cause. Nobody thinks like this now.

Say what? “God of the gaps” is the number one most common defense of theism I encounter — people are always saying that if we don’t know what happened at the Big Bang or at the instant the first cell appeared, that that is an action by their god. It’s the whole foundation of the Intelligent Design creationism movement that poking at inadequacies or incompleteness in evolution’s account of the world is the way to identify where their designer god was at work. I’m hoping she is just saying that no one believes that action at a distance is impossible, but her writing is awfully confusing.

Unfortunately, in order to make her case that the New Atheist argument is just like Newton’s argument for god, she has to mangle the idea dreadfully.

But is today’s evolutionary argument – which is often treated as fatal not just to Christianity but to religion generally – actually any stronger?

I am not questioning that there can be valid objection to theism. (Buddhists, of course, deploy many of them.) The point is simply that this particular argument is irrelevant to it. Appeals to evolution are only damaging to biblical literalism. Certainly the events described in Genesis 1 are not literally compatible with what science (from long before Darwin’s day) tells us about the antiquity of the Earth. But this is not news. The early Christian fathers pointed out that the creation story must be interpreted symbolically, not literally.

No, no, no. It is not an evolutionary argument, it is a science argument — you can be a physicist or a geologist or a chemist or a biologist and have the sense to reject religious belief. It is also not specifically a reaction against young earth creationism, except in a very general sense that creationism is an example of the arbitrary unreliability of religious ideas. That people can continue to believe in ridiculous nonsense that has been disproven, such as the idea that the earth is only 6000 years old, merely because it has the support of some religions, is an instance of the corrupting effect of faith.

It’s also not scientism. There is no expectation that a system for generating knowledge has to follow a narrowly defined scientific method (although no one has yet shown us a functioning alternative.)

Here’s the logic behind the scientific rejection of religion, which is nothing like the weird version Midgley has cobbled up. The success of science has shown us what an effective knowledge generator accomplishes: it produces consensus and an increasing body of support for its conclusions, and it has observable effects, specifically improvements in our understanding and ability to manipulate the world. We can share evidence that other people can evaluate and replicate, and an idea can spread because it works and is independently verifiable.

Look at religion. It is a failure. There is no convergence of ideas, no means to test ideas, and no reliable outcomes from those ideas. It’s noise and chaos and arbitrary eruptions of ridiculous rationalizations. Mormonism, Buddhism, Islam, and Catholicism can’t all be true — and no, please don’t play that game of reducing each religion to a mush that merely recognizes divinity. Religions have very specific dogmas, and practitioners do not blithely shuffle between them. Those differences are indefensible if they actually have a universal source of reliable knowledge about metaphysics.

Again, this is not a demand that religions must conform to science’s methods, only that we should be able to assess whether it works. I can imagine a world where revelation, for instance, actually generates useful knowledge, where people independently acquired specific information piped right into their heads, straight from god. I’d expect, though, that there would be some agreement between all the recipients. It could even be strictly theological information, with no expectation of material support. If a host of people all around the world suddenly heard a gong in their heads, followed by the words (in their own language, of course) “The name of God is Potrzebie”, well, then…there’s something interesting going on. If these kinds of revelations continued and were consistent across cultures and traditions, I’d be willing to consider that there was something outside the human mind that was communicating with us. I’d admittedly be baffled by it all, but the fact that there’d be growing cross-cultural consensus on very specific claims would be hard to ignore.

As for outcomes, it also doesn’t have to be something material — religion wouldn’t have to be a tool for making better microwave ovens before I’d believe it, for instance. It could provide a universal moral code, or be an effective tool for improving mental health. If the enlightened people of Potrzebie were demonstrably calmer, more peaceful, and better at coping with stress because of the intermittent revelations, then I’d also have to admit that something was up. It’s actually too bad that there isn’t any such phenomenon taking place.

Basically, we’ve learned from the example of science that a way of knowing ought to do what it promises to do. They don’t have to promise to do exactly the same thing — architecture and botany, for instance, don’t have the same goals or methods, so we wouldn’t expect physics and theology to echo each other’s answers — but they ought to produce something reliable and true.

The fact that no religion can is damaging to them. Biblical literalism is crazy nonsense, but no more so than transubstantiation or doctrines of salvation or any accounts of what happens in heaven or hell. What drives our rejection of religion isn’t that a few bits and pieces of specific religious beliefs, like the literal interpretation of Genesis, have been falsified, but that no consistent knowledge comes out of religion at all…yet every religion claims to provide knowledge about the nature of the universe.

Midgley just offers us more gooey jello to play with, though.

Like cargo cults, however, this Bible worship [referring to biblical literalism] is also a spiritual phenomenon, a message felt in the heart. Despite its confusions, it involves a genuine response to the real wisdom which can also be found in the Bible. Serious attempts to answer it need, therefore, to acknowledge that wisdom. They must try to show ways of combining it with more modern thinking.

“Spiritual” is a meaningless word, the last feeble gasp of a foolish faith that has nothing to offer except reassuring sussurations. There may well be wisdom in the Bible because it is a literary work created by people trying to understand their world, but it has no special privilege as a source of that kind of wisdom — it’s there in Heller’s Catch-22, or Borges’ The Library of Babel, or Burroughs’ Tarzan of the Apes, or Hitler’s Mein Kampf…and just because someone wrote it down does not obligate us to regard it as true. The New Atheists have no problem with treating the Bible as a book, evaluating it as a human work with flaws and glories…but these apologists always want something more, as if it is a grievous insult to religion if we fail to treat a plodding hodge-podge of fantasy with the proper reverence, that we must pretend that it is a special product infused with something holy. That’s not going to happen.

There have been many millions of books written, and we do not have to respect them all. No one trots out the Harry Potter books and tells us that we must combine those novels “with more modern thinking”. Why does this one holy book get singled out as a source of wisdom? Especially when, if you actually do read it, it’s a horror of vicious tribalism and questionable ethics and enduring ignorance. I have read it, seriously and with an effort to extract these jewels of wisdom it’s supposed to contain. I think modern thinking would be better off trying to untangle itself from this wicked dogma.

Midgley just has to close with more infuriating nonsense.

Belief in God is not an isolated factual opinion, like belief in the Loch Ness monster – not, as Richard Dawkins suggests, just one more “scientific hypothesis like any other”. It is a world-view, an all-enclosing vision of the kind of world that we inhabit. We all have these visions. Though they are always loaded with lumber and often dangerous, we need them. So, when we try to relate and improve them we have to treat each of them as a whole. We would not be right, any more than Newton was, to start by taking our own standpoint as infallible.

Just because the fervency of a belief smothers those who hold it into a vision of the world does not make it true, and definitely does not make it exempt from treating it as a hypothesis, and evaluating whether it is actually true or not. While we all have “world-views”, what Midgley is promoting is perilously close to insisting on privileging her Biblical BS as something we must respect…and her real gripe with the New Atheists is not that we claim infallibility, but that we joyously poke holes in her cherished delusion.

And no, no one needs to believe in a cosmic intelligence, let alone the weird squinty petulant psychotic of the Abrahamic religions. It really is possible to say no to myths.

Boycotting Nature?

Wow. The University of California system is facing a 400% increase in the subscription cost to Nature Publishing Group’s journals. Libraries have been struggling with this problem for years, with journal costs spiraling ever upwards (usually it’s Elsevier that is leading the way), and it’s a tremendous chunk of university library budgets. UC libraries are currently spending $300 thousand on just the various Nature journals — increasing that expense for a university system that is already straining to keep up sounds like a nightmare. Of course, not getting Nature is also a nightmare to researchers…so now it’s nightmare vs. nightmare. Who will win?

UC faculty are planning a boycott. It may not be difficult to organize since the libraries simply cannot afford the journals, no matter how much UC opponents may want to keep them.

It’s a very weird situation because those UC researchers that Nature wants to bill more are also among the people who are providing the content for the journals, and also provides some of the reviewers who work for free to maintain the high quality of the publications. This is not to deny that the professionals who publish and edit at Nature Publishing Group aren’t an essential part of the institution of publishing, but honestly, science journal publishing has the most incomprehensible screwed up model for making money that you can find just about anywhere. It’s not just Nature, either — earlier today I was looking into an obscure subject in developmental biology, and found that none of the core papers are available under my university’s subscription plan. This system should be about making the scientific information that scientists generate freely available, and it rarely is.

Nature has made a rather unconvincing reply to the UC’s dilemma. I don’t know what’s going to happen yet, but science publishing is one domain where their producers are their consumers and their consumers are their producers, and it’s trivial to piss off your suppliers and your market in one easy step…and it looks like California could be the place to force a crisis.

Kraken dismantled

Warning: this anatomy lesson is completely bogus.

I have tried the rum this is advertising — how could I not? Cephalopods and pirate drink, you know — and it’s not bad. But then, it is rum, and there isn’t all that much art to it.

Your daily squick

I am not easily grossed out, but this story hit me on a couple of levels.

Ex-porn star Houston says she became so used to marketing her celebrity status that when she got a labiaplasty, it was a no-brainer to encase her labia “trimmings” in lucite and sell them.

Labiaplasty is simply another form of female genital mutilation, so I find that repellent. That women feel compelled to get their genitals sculpted to fit some inappropriate ideal is criminal (the rest of the article at that link talks about how society discards porn stars). And that some sick, sick man has these lumps of flesh displayed on his mantel somewhere … what the heck is wrong with you?

I don’t want to know what that guy (and you know it is a guy) is doing with them.

Here, quick, puppies! Think about cute little baby puppies!

Awww, urge to hork fading…fading…gone.

Two modest proposals

The ghost of Larry Summers (I know! And he isn’t even dead yet!) has risen again, with John Tierney of the NY Times “daring” to consider the notion that maybe women aren’t as mathy as men. There’s a lot to object to in his story, from the title (Sorry, John, but it isn’t daring to promote a stereotype at all) to the feeble caveat at the end, where he says he willing to consider “possible social bias against women” in the sciences. “Possible”? Really? Say it ain’t so, John!

But no, let’s cut straight to the heart of the issue. The problem here is sneaky sleight of hand.

Here’s what everyone in society, in academia, and in the sciences wants: we want to employ the best people with the best aptitude for the job, and with the greatest possibility of success. The universities want to hire people who are really, really good at science. Agreed?

Now here’s the problem: there is no clear marker or metric for success in science. It’s a complicated task, with lots of variables and lots of different strategies for doing well. It’s not like looking for the person who runs the 100 meter dash the fastest, in which we could just line up the applicants, fire a starting gun, and give the job to the first person who crosses the finishing line. So what do we do? We use proxy metrics.

The best proxies are measurements that most closely approximate performance in science. We look at publication records, grants awarded, recommendations of colleagues, the sort of thing we’d expect our new scientist to continue doing. It’s not perfect — maybe the applicant is a neurotic living on the edge who’s about to break down, or maybe they have an abrasive personality that will affect the performance of other faculty — but it’s a good start. It’s what most committees should evaluate most highly in the hiring process.

There are other proxies, too. Did they get good grades in their college courses? That indicates some discipline. In their teaching, did they get good student evaluations? Student evals are fraught with problems, but an unbroken record of negatives is a warning sign. Do they score well in IQ tests, SATs, GREs? That’s a proxy, too. It would indicate that they’re pretty smart, which is an extremely important property if you’re going to be a scientist.

All of those things are still just proxies for the constellation of properties you want in a scientific colleague. We have to balance them to get an idea of the potential of an applicant: it would be insane to hire someone with no experience, no publications, and no grants just because they got straight As in high school and college. But for some reason, in this tedious argument about the suitability of women to do science, all that gets mentioned is a gender difference in performance on standardized tests.

Even if we concede a genuine gender difference in performance on standardized math tests that is independent of social factors (which I don’t yet), gender is a proxy for intelligence (and a very poor proxy, too), which is a proxy for scientific aptitude. We’re getting pretty damned far from actual substance of the job requirements.

So I have two proposals, both of which still use the handy shortcut of a simple numeric proxy which the advocates of these ideas favor beyond all reason, but additionally, get away from these inflammatory, socially loaded issues of gender and race (let’s not even get into that one, but skin color is another proxy used to estimate intelligence). It might help defuse the tension that talking about judging people on their sex always causes if we simply used a different proxy.

  1. Let’s just use a different indirect metric; I suggest wealth. We already know that this one works out surprisingly well, as this chart shows.

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    Obviously, rich people are inherently smarter than poor people. Tierney points out that the right tail of the SAT math test distribution has about a 3:1 boy:girl difference; I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn, though, that the rich:poor difference is even greater.

    Tierney has a wonderful quote in his article. The sex ratio at the right end of the distribution hasn’t been changing much, so he reports that

    The Duke researchers report in Intelligence, “Our data clearly show that there are sex differences in cognitive abilities in the extreme right tail, with some favoring males and some favoring females.”

    The researchers say it’s impossible to predict how long these math and science gender gaps will last. But given the gaps’ stability for two decades, the researchers conclude, “Thus, sex differences in abilities in the extreme right tail should not be dismissed as no longer part of the explanation for the dearth of women in math-intensive fields of science.”

    [By the way, that double-negative in the sentence is hopelessly confusing — it should mean that sex differences should be dismissed as part of the explanation, but in the context they’re saying exactly the opposite. Must have been written by a man, with their poorer verbal skills.]

    By the same reasoning, we can also argue that wealth differences in abilities should not be dismissed, since they tend to be perpetuated over many generations. We can just stop wasting time and money trying to educate poor children or correcting the inequities of poverty in our schools, because the data clearly says that it’s highly unlikely that any of them will succeed in science.

    So here’s my specific proposal: every scientist should report on their CV the approximate amount of money their parents were making while they were attending college. It’s a simple, single number with a wide range, allowing us to easily place everyone on a scale of potential performance. If you come from parents on the left side of that chart, you are less likely to be a competent scientist, and you should admit that fact; if you’re on the right side, employers ought to be able to use the information that you’ve had definite advantages and a leg up on the job.

  2. Wait — we’re still using a proxy for a proxy. Let’s cut straight to it and use SAT/GRE scores directly. Forget everything else, let male and female faculty report their scores right on the CV, and we’ll sort them out for matters of tenure, promotion, rank, etc. right from the value being argued over.

    You see, there’s a shifty little game that proponents of gender discrimination are playing. They argue that high SAT scores are indicative of success in science, and then they say that males tend to have higher math SAT scores, and therefore it is OK to encourage more men in the higher ranks of science careers…but they never get around to saying what their SAT scores were. Larry Summers could smugly lecture to a bunch of accomplished women about how men and women were different and having testicles helps you do science, but his message really was “I have an intellectual edge over you because some men are incredibly smart, and I am a man”, which is a logical fallacy. Even if we accept his premise, we don’t know that any individual man is smarter than any individual woman — unless we get full disclosure. It’s as if I went up before a WNBA team and lectured them on how men were on average taller and stronger than women, and therefore play a better game of basketball, and didn’t have to do a little one-on-one on the court — where I’d be humiliated despite my membership in the testosterone club.

    If these scores are really so important, let’s go for it and rank scientists work by their math SAT scores. The NIH can use it to prescreen grant applications — those from scientists with scores below 750 go in a pity pile for funding if there’s left-over money, those with scores over 750 get priority ranked by the usual methods, with the math SAT used as tie-breaker for applications on the edge of the funding level. We’ll resolve scientific debates that way, too: for instance, isn’t the one thing you need to know to figure out what side of the group selection debate you should be on is the relative SAT scores of David Sloan Wilson and George C. Williams? Why aren’t these numbers available?

    The real advantage, though, is amusement. Suddenly all the men who had been arguing that being in the elite top 0.001% of was so essential to great scientific success, but who are not themselves quite that high, would find themselves arguing that science is an enterprise with many parameters and no single simple number can encapsulate the entirety of the process, and say, shouldn’t you all be looking at my publication record, my grants, my contributions to scholarly discussions?

Lest you think I’m being self-serving here, I will admit that under proposal 1, I’d have to get demoted — my parents’ economic status was way, way over to the left. I’d do much better under proposal 2, because I’ve always done phenomenally well on standardized tests. Either way, I don’t care, and if either of my schemes were actually implemented I’d be arguing against them, anyway.

The problem is fundamentally one of hitch-hiking on others’ reputations. We get these waves of articles touting the statistical superiority of males because some people want their club, the Men’s Club, to have that prestige of being better than the Women’s Club, despite the fact that their individual performance may not be better than the performance of individuals in that other, ‘inferior’ group. “Men” is a proud and meaningless association of human beings — it is a granfalloon. Seriously, the fact that Stephen Hawking happens to be in Club XY with me does not in any way bestow upon me the intellectual luster of Hawking. Nor are Carolyn Porco, Lisa Randall, Shirley Ann Jackson, or Pardis Sabeti somehow less likely to succeed in science because they don’t have a Hawking-like penis. Yet somehow we end up going around and around this irrelevant argument about the statistics of a granfalloon all the time.

Bill Donohue goes gaga

Bill Donohue was looking awfully silly demanding that the Empire State Building celebrate Mother Teresa’s birthday, so I guess he needed a new cause. He found one. The Catholic League is outraged by Lady Gaga’s new video.

Lady Gaga is playing Madonna copy cat, squirming around half-naked with half-naked guys, abusing Catholic symbols–they’re always Catholic symbols–while bleating out “Alejandro” enough times to induce vomit. Dressed occasionally as a nun in a glossy-red habit, the Madonna wannabe flashes the cross, swallows a rosary and manages to get raped by her S&M boyfriends. Hence, she has now become the new poster girl for American decadence and Catholic bashing, sans the looks and talent of her role model.

Like Madonna, Lady Gaga was raised Catholic and then morphed into something unrecognizable. “So I suppose you could say I’m a quite religious woman that is very confused about religion,” she told Larry King last week.

That she is confused is an understatement. In any event, we hope she finds her way back home. In the meantime, Catholics will settle for her treating us like Muslims.

I’m actually a fan of Lady Gaga (Bill will not be surprised), so I had to zip over to youtube to see this. Here it is. It’s got something for everybody. Just imagine poor Bill Donohue watching it over and over, compelled to document this atrocity, a little bit of saliva drooling from his slack lips, while with one hand he clicks “replay” repeatedly.

Donohue does have a point, I hate to say. I watched the whole thing, with its muscular young men gyrating in jackboots and tight shorts and nothing else, the weird headgear, the sadomasochistic imagery, the black leather uniforms, the flaming homoeroticism, and I was thinking, yeah, all that does remind me of Catholicism. I didn’t think it was Catholic bashing, though. I thought it was a recruiting video.