It Won’t Happen Again: I managed to make two accurate predictions


I made a hypothetical/prediction a few weeks ago before the Coup Klux Klan attacked (*): White cops might be willing participants in a coup, but the US military brass would not.  It’s a rare case of me getting it right, never to be repeated.  (* A term coined by The Root, not myself.) 

Video from the insurrection, reports coming out and legal action being taken make it clear that some cops were involved and will face consequences, and not just those who took selfies.  After their return home, two Seattle cops are in serious trouble for their involvement in the insurrection.  Several legislators may have been involved in abetting the mob and feeding them information (Lauren Boebert? Josh Hawley? others?), which should also have consequences.  Mikie Sherill of New Jersey openly names Mike Kozar (AZ), Mo Brooks (AL) and Andy Biggs (AZ) as having led “reconnaisance tours” of the capitol the day before the attack.  The intentional delay to send out the national guard on January 6th should also lead to charges.

The US’s joint chiefs of staff, the military elite, have had a very different response.  They issued a rare and unusual public statement, the eight heads of the military branches stated:

On January 20, 2021, in accordance with the constitution, confirmed by the states and the courts, and certified by congress, president-elect Biden will be inaugurated and will become out 46th commander in chief.

They  are clearly stating again that their loyalty is to the constitution, not a specific person or position.

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Beau of the Fifth Column explains in the video below why the generals’ wording is so important, especially the word will.  In another video, he talks about the. . .travel inconveniences some of the rioters encountered on the way home.  He optimistically predicts any “50 state terrorist strategy” won’t work (i.e. they can’t organize and coordinate a simultaneous attack), but I would err on the side of caution and assume they can and will try it.  Underestimation of white supremacy and violence is why January 6th happened.  If they had been smart enough to take guns, this might already be over.

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With over 6,000 armed national guard troops already at the capitol and more to come, the US military is making its presence an obvious deterrant.  Noticeably (and importantly) many of those national guard troops are Black and People of Colour, more likely to support the rightful transfer of power.  It would take a massive, coordinated effort for the fascists to repel this, but that doesn’t mean it’s time for complacency.

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Comments

  1. lorn says

    I suspect that the coup got as far as it did because the MAGA crowd didn’t bring guns. Greatly outnumbered the police were reluctant to escalate and wisely chose a more edgewise resistance of buying time through social firmness instead of direct contradiction. While it did buy time to get the congress moved out of the worse of the danger. it wasn’t long enough for the much delayed reinforcements.

    Had guns been more present there would have been far less physical confrontation as lines of police manned barriers and engaged in shoving matches. Police are generally well aware that riot gear doesn’t stop bullets and that the tactics of riot control and use of firearms differ. Once guns are in play doorways become choke-points that can be controlled by much smaller numbers of officers as long as his ammunition and morale hold out.

    I suspect that the MAGA crowd would find that war is not a video game. That defenders behind cover have huge advantages when you have to go through a door to aim at them without resort to flash-bangs. That piles of bodies are wobbly footing and slippery pools of blood are profoundly problematic. That modern weapons cause massive damage to and bleeding of extremities and a lack of medics and timely evacuation is demoralizing. That training, familiarity and the close cooperation this allows are force multipliers for the capital police.

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