I have a new column this week on OnlySky. It’s about the 1970s-style oil crisis we may be about to suffer because of the Trump administration’s ruinous stupidity.
The war that America started but can’t finish is spiraling into disaster. Our military in the Persian Gulf proved to be a paper tiger, and our promises to protect our allies were hollow. Iran already controls the Strait of Hormuz, and its allies the Houthis have seized the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. These are the twin chokepoints for Middle East oil. Now that they have control over both, Iran and its proxies can cut off shipments at will and inflict massive pain and suffering on any country that’s dependent on fossil fuel to run its economy.
It didn’t have to be this way. We should never have gotten ourselves embroiled in this pointless and unwinnable war. On a larger scale, we could have electrified the global economy years ago, switching to clean, dependable green power and severing our dependence on Mideast autocrats. But we didn’t do any of that, and we’re all going to pay the price: shortages, high inflation, and potentially the end of the petrodollar agreement that made America the world’s superpower.
Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is members-only, so consider signing up! Members of OnlySky also get special benefits, like a subscriber newsletter:
When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for America’s war, Saudi Arabia had a fallback option. They could transport their oil through a pipeline running east-to-west across the country, to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. But shipping the oil onward from Yanbu to points south and east requires passing through Bab el-Mandeb… which the Houthis now control.
This isn’t a complete blockade, because oil can also travel north through the Red Sea, going through the Suez Canal. That means Mideast oil could still reach Europe, though countries in Asia are in a much worse position. On the other hand, Iran and its proxies can also attack the Saudi east-to-west pipeline… which they did this week, shutting it down for an indefinite time.
With Iran and its allies controlling both straits and bombing oil infrastructure at will, they’ve pinched the arteries of the world economy. This is a disaster for America and its allies. It’s our worst strategic defeat in decades, possibly ever.
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