The Probability Broach, Appendix

In the final section of his appendix, L. Neil Smith says that the North American Confederacy leapfrogged the real world by moving into space much earlier. We’ve seen that the NAC has colonies on “the Moon, Mars, and Ceres Central”, and here he gives some more details about when all that happened:

161 1937 Artificial satellite launched, southern Mexico.
173 1949 Lunar expedition establishes colony; laser pistol sights.
176 1952 A. Rand elected, becomes first president to travel to Moon.
192 1968 Mars colony, Coprates Canyon; “None of the Above” wins election.

Yes, he has Ayn Rand as president. Presumably that’s his attempt at a tribute, although the real Ayn Rand wouldn’t have accepted the job due to her belief that women were metaphysically required to be subservient to men.

But what’s missing from the appendix, despite Smith bringing in other historical figures at various points, is an explanation of who did these things and for what purpose.

A government might fund and build extraplanetary colonies, the same way they build Antarctic research bases, space stations, and other large-scale megaprojects. There are all kinds of motives for a state to embark on such a massive project: whether it be national pride and bragging rights, scientific curiosity, colonial expansionism, military strategy, to foster international cooperation and diplomacy, or as a hedge against catastrophe. Governments can tap into the productive power of an entire society to build on a scale that no person or corporation could fund on their own, and they can afford to take the long view without having to consider whether it’s immediately – or ever – profitable.

But there’s no government in this world. This is an anarcho-capitalist universe where all property is private property and everything has to serve the profit motive. Given this fact, it’s safe to assume that whoever founded these lunar and martian colonies did so with the expectation of turning a profit.

So, how could you turn a space colony into a profit center?

The obvious answer is mining, which Smith references in the final chapter by having Ed and Lucy head out to the asteroid belt to prospect. It’s not completely implausible: we know of asteroids like 16 Psyche, whose high density suggests it’s made mostly or entirely of metal. Some people speculate that this could include precious metals like platinum or gold. A NASA probe is on its way to Psyche to find out more.

The bad news is that space travel is so astronomically expensive (literally!), the cost of such an expedition would exceed the value of whatever you could reasonably hope to bring back. That goes double if you have to include not just the rocket launch, but building all the infrastructure necessary for humans to survive in deep space, and then safely returning to earth with many tons of material. There’s just no way it could be profitable now or in the foreseeable future.

Also, an obvious point is that even if we could mine an asteroid, bringing all that metal back to Earth would cause a supply glut and a price crash. Those elements aren’t intrinsically valuable; they’re only valuable because they’re rare. Any would-be asteroid miners, if they’re successful, would quickly bankrupt themselves. Somehow, libertarians who claim to understand economics better than everyone else always miss that point.

If gold mining in space is infeasible, there’s only one other answer that makes sense: The owners of these colonies must be recruiting people to become indentured servants.

To get there, you’d have to ride on a private rocket, which would put you in debt to the colony owners that you’d have to work off with labor. Once you arrived, you’d be assigned to a job to earn your keep: growing food in the hydroponic gardens, or mining local raw materials for building supplies, or working as private security to keep the peons in line. Whatever surplus you could extract would go straight to the owners, who’d be seeking to profit by building up resources to trade with Earth.

The big issue, which Smith glides past, is that whoever originally acquired the territory for the colony would rule over the colonists like a king. In libertarian ideology, whoever owns property has absolute control over it. Obviously, there’d be no opt-out. When you’re living in a pressurized dome on an airless rock where all supplies have to be brought in by spacecraft, you can’t just quit your job and strike out on your own.

This is what always happens with libertarians. They claim to value freedom above all else – but whenever they try to show how their philosophy might be implemented, it always ends up with a tiny number of elite plutocrats wielding absolute power and everyone else enslaved to their whims. That’s what Ayn Rand showed in Galt’s Gulch with John Galt making up his own laws on a whim. That’s also what was described with the plans for the libertarian Freedom Ship, as well as the Survival Condo Project. Smith’s anarcho-capitalist space colonies would have the same problem.

It’s not an accident that libertarians keep recreating oligarchy. It’s the natural endpoint of their ideology. As books like The Probability Broach have shown, they reject democracy and rule of law as illegitimate. They also worship money – and in Smith’s case, guns. Put those things together, and you inevitably end up with an ultra-wealthy ruling class controlling all the resources and reducing everyone else to serfdom. Whether they know it or not, whether they admit it or not, that’s the future that they’re lobbying for.

This is the final post of my review of The Probability Broach. Thanks to everyone who read and commented along the way!

Other posts in this series:

• The Probability Broach