The Probability Broach: Tangled in red tape

Yellow-and-black caution tape

The Probability Broach, chapter 18

Win’s airship has arrived at the capitol city of the North American Confederacy:

Gallatinopolis, geographic and political center of North America, is a crusty little patch of buildings surrounded by an entire planet of wheat fields. A lone highway stretches from the south: Greenway 200, an emerald ribbon in a sea of gold departing northward until it’s covered with a springy mutated moss.

As they disembark, Win is in a gloomy mood. He and Lucy made it, but their friends Clarissa and Ed are gone, kidnapped by the bad guys en route. If they’re not already dead, they’re hostages, and Madison will be sure to use them as bargaining chips to sway the upcoming congressional meeting in his favor. (So much for “the hostage kills you“.)

This section recounts a little of the NAC’s fictional history. In its early days, as Americans expanded westward, the capitol moved with them, but not to a fixed location. It wandered all over the country for years, switching from one city to another. Often, wherever the president lived was treated as the capitol by default. Finally, it was “dumped” at a fixed location in the Dakota Territories, at the exact geographical center of the continent.

Given the huge skyscrapers and other advanced technology he’s seen in this world, Win was expecting something with more gravitas. But the NAC’s capitol looks like a primitive backwater town. It’s all rustic shacks and slapdash buildings, with few creature comforts:

I snorted. “This is progressive, modern, space-age Gallatinopolis?”

“This is miserable, backward, rustic Gallatinopolis. Ain’t it swell?”

I eventually learned not to look down at my feet: the city is preserved exactly as it was eighty-seven years ago—its chief and only industry the much-to-be-despised operation of occasional government. The place looks like a mining boom town: tarpaper shacks ready to burn given thirty seconds of warm weather and a mild breeze, streets narrow runnels of churned mud—but frozen, under two inches of transparent plastic.

Win asks Lucy why it’s in the middle of nowhere and why it looks like this:

“To make it just as inconvenient as possible to everyone! If Tucker’d had his way, the poxy thing’d be in Siberia! Government needs to be tiresome. Folks think twice before they agree to come up here. We’ve met only six times since the capital was moved. That’s six times too many, but anarchy takes practice.”

(“Tucker” is Benjamin Tucker, a socialist anarchist who served as president of the NAC in Smith’s alternate history.)

This isn’t an aside; it’s a key fact about L. Neil Smith’s political philosophy. The North American Confederacy is an anarchist society with only a vestigial government. It has a legislature, but it can’t make laws as we understand them, only recommendations with no coercive power. And even at that, Smith situates the capitol out in the boonies, far from all major population centers, so that it’s as inconvenient as possible for Congress to get together and meet.

This makes it difficult for the government to get tyrannical ideas and start oppressing people, which is presumably the point. However, it also means that in a crisis, there’s a built-in disincentive to action. If the NAC is facing a threat, it’s essentially impossible for it to respond in an organized way. As we’ll see, that’s exactly how things play out.

This doesn’t cross Smith’s mind, because it’s central to his ideology that there are evils that arise from too much government, but no evils that arise from too little. He says so in the fictional quote that opens this chapter:

I am less concerned with good and evil than with freedom and non-freedom. Good and evil may both exist within a free society, But given sufficient time, all that remains under tyranny is evil.

We seek only a consistent application of the principle of liberty, without exception, without excuse, without compromise. We do not promise infallibility, but are determined, against the trend of six thousand years of human history, to make our errors on the side of individual rights.

—Albert Gallatin
Rule of Reason

That sounds very noble and principled. But it runs smack into collective-action problems: situations in which, when each individual makes the self-interested choice, it produces bad consequences for everyone.

There are many examples of this, which I’ve been discussing as we go through the book. I previously wrote about quarantine to fight pandemics; about air and water pollution; about the Dust Bowl, which arose from destructive overfarming; and about irrigating the desert and how to settle the question of water rights.

Most of all, there’s the question of emergencies. If a natural disaster was bearing down on the NAC, or a hostile foreign power was massing its forces to invade, what would they do? How could they muster the organization to respond to a danger that threatened every citizen, when they’ve intentionally made it as difficult as possible to do so?

We never see any large-scale emergencies of that kind in this book. Smith stacks the deck in his favor, writing the plot so that his fictional society never faces a disaster beyond its ability to overcome.

But the real world isn’t so obliging. Nuclear reactors melt down and spread contamination; hurricanes and tsunamis flood coastal settlements; earthquakes shake the ground; volcanoes erupt and wildfires burn; and even the most peaceful country sometimes gets bombed or invaded by a larger, imperialist power through no fault of its own. At times like these, people – including libertarians – quickly rediscover the advantages of having a competent, efficient government to muster defenses, coordinate emergency responders, set up shelters, distribute aid, and take charge of evacuation.

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The Probability Broach: Fire in a crowded theater

A poster showing a theater engulfed in flames

The Probability Broach, chapter 17

Ed and Win Bear are traveling via airship to the Continental Congress to inform this world of the Hamiltonian threat. En route, they learn that the villainous John Jay Madison has sent his thugs to kidnap their friends Clarissa and Lucy, to use as
leverage at the upcoming congressional session.

Win arrives too late to help Clarissa. So he hurries back to the theater where Lucy was watching a movie, hoping he’s in time to rendezvous with Ed:

Lucy was there, but I can’t say the same for the two thugs they’d hauled out of the theater. A small crowd had gathered around the cashier’s booth, along with a medic, two security attendants, and Lucy, arms folded, gun dangling from one finger.

… “Now madame,” one of the official contingent pleaded, “if you’d put that away, and tell us what happened here. We must have an explanation. It’s a company rule.”

Stuff your company! If two punks wanna get hurt—I’m practically an innocent bystander!” She gestured sharply with a toe at the figures on the floor.

The medic looked up and scowled. “Come on, lady—you’ve already fractured his skull! Trying for some ribs, now?”

I’ll admit this scene is funny. There’s obvious comedy in Lucy, an old lady (albeit a war veteran), not just clobbering two thugs, but doing it so casually that she’s more annoyed about missing her show than by this attempted kidnapping.

But Ed was supposed to be coming to her rescue. Win asks Lucy where he is:

“Ed ain’t here. These”—she kicked at the bleeding form again—”…came in, sat on either side of me, and—” She aimed a kick at the other unconscious thug, but was restrained. “He had a hypo. They were gonna stick me! So I bopped ’em—couldn’t fire in a crowded theater. Taxation! They bent my front sight!” She peered along the barrel, the crowd in front melted discreetly away.

This is very responsible of Lucy, and I agree. Even in a self-defense situation, you can’t just whip out your gun and start shooting in a dark, crowded theater.

In that environment, if gunfire suddenly erupted, no one would know who was shooting at whom. People would panic. It’s virtually guaranteed that at least some people would leap to the conclusion that it was a mass-shooting spree, draw their own guns, and start firing at whoever they think the shooter is. In this heavily armed society, that would provoke a deadly chain reaction, as yet more people panic and return fire at that person, presuming them to be the attacker—and so on.

You can imagine the pandemonium. People would be shot by pure accident, or knocked down and trampled in the sudden crowd crush as everyone tried to escape at the same time. It would be a horrific mass casualty event. The theater would be carpeted with bodies by the time it was all over.

So yes, I can commend Lucy for staying cool-headed in the heat of the moment. Here’s the problem: Does everyone in this society exercise the same level of self-control?

Because for the North American Confederacy to work, that has to be the case.

Otherwise, every public place and every crowded scene would be susceptible to sudden explosions of violence. When everyone is armed at all times, it only takes one angry, unstable, or panic-prone person to overreact to a real or imagined threat. (And how many disturbed people might there be on the street, in a society where there’s no such thing as court-ordered treatment or involuntary commitment for even the most severe cases of mental illness?)

This goes to show that firearms don’t protect people from all possible danger, as gun nuts believe. Indeed, they make everyday life far more dangerous. That chain reaction of panic and carnage I described would be sure to ensue in any situation where a mystery bullet is fired.

Those mass casualty events should be a regular feature of life in the NAC. L. Neil Smith doesn’t have any explanation for why they’re not, other than to assume that everyone in this society is almost superhumanly cool and calm in a crisis.

The battered thugs are hauled away. Ed can’t be found, so Win and Lucy head to suite 1919, the place Madison proposed for a meeting. They come with guns ready, but the room is empty. There’s no one there—just a note:

Lieutenant:

We enjoyed more success with Dr. Olson and Mr. Bear. Instead of wasting time—and possibly lives—attempting to follow, reconsider my offer before Congress convenes.

M.v.R.

While they’re reading the note, a clerk arrives to tidy up the room for its next occupants. When they ask where the previous occupants went, the clerk says: “Mr. Richthofen and his party took a groundward shuttle not more than five minutes ago. I arranged it myself.”

L. Neil Smith would never have admitted it, but his own writing shows why his utopia doesn’t work.

As I wrote last week, in an anarcho-capitalist world, you’re responsible for your own safety. The problem is that no one can realistically defend themselves all the time against a resourceful and determined enemy. You might get lucky once—Lucy did in this chapter, and Clarissa in an earlier chapter—but if the bad guys can afford to keep trying, your luck is eventually going to run out.

Smith proved that point himself, by having Clarissa talk about how guns are the great equalizer that levels the playing field, then having her get kidnapped offscreen. Now he reinforces the point by having Ed Bear get captured too.

Remember, Ed is a private investigator who’s used to dealing with dangerous criminals, so we can assume he’s appropriately paranoid about his own safety. Also, unlike Lucy and Clarissa, he knew the bad guys were coming. He should’ve been as well prepared as anyone in this world could be. Yet he still got taken hostage without firing a shot.

Throughout this book, the demands of storytelling clash with the demands of political ideology, and this chapter is the most blatant example. Smith wants to convince us that statism causes crime and violence, whereas anarchy produces peace and prosperity. He tells us that his anarcho-capitalist world is peaceful and safe, to the point that crime is virtually unknown.

However, if he were consistent about this, this novel would be too boring to read. To keep it exciting, he added these action scenes—home invasions, shootouts, car chases. They’re the spoonful of sugar that makes the medicine palatable. But he doesn’t seem to recognize that having those scenes undercuts the central premise of his philosophy.

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Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

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