We are at the meaningless ‘vox pop’ state of election reporting

Today is election day and until the polls close and vote totals start coming in, there is really nothing to report. So the media is filling time and space with responses from voters as they exit the polling stations, asking them whom they voted for and why.

While well-designed and organized exit polls can use this information to obtain trends and do important post-election analyses, these ad-hoc interviews are useless.

Getting quotes from random people about something or other is a standard reporting trope but such quotes are usually selected to support the narrative that the reporter has already decided upon and hence are cherry picked.

But we get them anyway.

What will happen on election day and when to expect results

The final day of voting for the US elections is Tuesday. As with everything else involving elections in the US, the process is complicated by the fact that all 50 states and the District of Columbia have their own voting times and procedures. Also, each state has its own rules about how and when early and mailed ballots are processed and counted. As a service to those readers of this blog who live in other countries and may be bewildered by the complexity of the process, I thought that I would write an explainer so that those interested (and patient enough!) can follow the results as they slowly emerge on election day and the days following.

Note that while I emphasize the presidential race in this post, there are also a slew of important congressional and gubernatorial elections, as well as ballot initiatives such as ten abortion-related ones in Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and Nebraska and four other states . See here for a compilation of all the things that are up for votes and which ones are worth paying close attention to.

To start, this map tells you when polls close in each state (Note that the times are Pacific times. You can get similar maps for other time zones by going here.)

People outside the US are often bemused by the fact that media outlets are the ones who project winners because in many other countries it is a centralized governmental body that handles the vote counting and declares who is the winner only after all the votes are counted. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the large number of votes cast in each election by each person for a whole slew of races (I had to vote in 23 separate categories in my county in California) makes the vote tallying more complicated and as a result, at least for the major races, media outlets have stepped in to project results more quickly, using exit polls and early vote count totals.
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DeSantis anti-abortion effort gets smacked down by judge

Florida has an important vote on election day, and that is Amendment 4 that seeks to protect the right to abortion. Florida Republicans had pushed through a law banning abortions after six-weeks, which is effectively a total ban. The Amendment seeks to allow abortions until fetal viability, which is around 22-24 weeks. (I have written about this before.)

Supporters of Amendment 4 had put out the following ad.

Florida’s health department issued an order to TV stations not to air the ads because it was false, since they claim that the law does permit abortions in medical emergencies. But doctors are fearful of doing so under almost any circumstances because the law about exceptions is vague. If TV stations aired the ad, they were threatened with a second-degree misdemeanor, “which carries a sentence of up to 60 days imprisoned or a fine of up to $500.”
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Asking creepy Trump the wrong questions

I have mentioned several times that interviewers tend to ask poor questions of politicians. Often they are wordy and vague, allowing the responder to pick a bit that they already have a pat answer for. Another is asking about inferences (which can be obfuscated) instead of questions of fact (which are harder to evade).There are so many clips of people asking creepy Donald Trump questions that he ‘answers’ (actually deflects) by ignoring the question or challenging the premise or attacking the questioner.

This happened recently when he faced off against the editor of Bloomberg News who asked him about import tariffs. Creepy Trump says that he loves tariffs, calling it “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” and insists that they will raise so much money that they will pay for anything and everything that he promises to do, such as tax cuts, the border wall, child care, or whatever. He seems to suggest that this will cause no pain to people because the tariffs would be paid by the exporting country and thus those countries will be paying for his programs. It is ridiculous, like his claim that Mexico would pay for the construction of the border wall which of course never happened.
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The real Bourne conspiracy: The wild story behind the 2020 election fraud allegations

After the 2020 election, Fox News and other right wing media peddled the bizarre theory that there had been a vast conspiracy involving the Dominion voting machine company, the Smartmatic software company, the Democratic party, the deceased Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez, and large numbers of election workers all over the country to switch votes from creepy Donald Trump to Joe Biden. Although preposterous on its face, this spread like wildfire and became an article of faith with creepy Trump, his cult followers, and among his campaign team.

Both Dominion and Smartmatic sued Fox News, Newsmax, and OANN. and also people close to creepy Trump like Rudy Giuliani and Sydney Powell who spread this nonsense. Fox settled with Dominion for a whopping $787.5 million dollars. Smartmatic’s case against Newsmax was settled on September 26, 2024 but the details have not yet been released. Four other cases are still pending.
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Kris Kristofferson (1936-2024)

The gifted singer, songwriter, and actor died on September 28th at the age of 88.

There have been many articles and tributes to him. He had a varied career and many of his songs were sung by others and became major hits.

Kristofferson was a Golden Gloves boxer, rugby star and football player in college; received a master’s degree in English from Merton College at the University of Oxford in England; and flew helicopters as a captain in the U.S. Army but turned down an appointment to teach at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, to pursue songwriting in Nashville.

Starting in the late 1960s, the Brownsville, Texas native wrote such country and rock ‘n’ roll standards as “Sunday Mornin’ Comin’ Down,” “Help Me Make it Through the Night,” “For the Good Times” and “Me and Bobby McGee.” Kristofferson was a singer himself, but many of his songs were best known as performed by others, whether Ray Price crooning “For the Good Times” or Janis Joplin belting out “Me and Bobby McGee.”

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Harris-Walz media strategy

If you follow political news, there have been some criticisms from some of those in the pundit class (even those considered to be Democratic supporters) about the paucity of media interviews given by the Harris-Walz team. Some of this is self-interested. They like to portray themselves as at least partly above the partisan fray and in trying to appear even-handed, they look for things to criticize and this is one of them. Other popular topics are her alleged lack of specifics about her proposals and how she will pay for them.

Noteworthy is the fact that creepy Donald Trump seems to get a pass on all these things. It is as if he is so out there, that there is no point in even trying to find fault with him or, if they do, it is to indulge in ‘both siderism’. A good example is this exchange between a so-called conservative Bret Stephens and a so-called liberal Gail Collins, two columnists for the New York Times.
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Fox News in a squeeze

To put the current fight within the family of Rupert Murdoch for control of the Murdoch media empire in context, one needs to understand the changing political media landscape in the past three decades.

When the cable news channel Fox News started in 1996, it barely made a blip in the public consciousness. It was designed to be right wing and its founding CEO Roger Ailes was unapologetically so. But initially most people, and even journalists in major media like ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and the print news were not even aware of its existence or confused it with the Fox TV broadcast network. That changed in 2000 when in the highly close presidential election, Fox News made an early and controversial call giving Florida to George W. Bush and that proved to be a significant factor in determining the final outcome.
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Succession fight over Rupert Murdoch’s media empire

Fox News has been a pernicious influence in US public life. It has promoted extreme right wing policies, cultivated hatred of immigrants, indulged racists, targeted minorities, and in general been on the wrong side of almost every major social issue.

Rupert Murdoch, the founder of Fox News and owner of other major media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal and the UK-based Times and Sun, has been challenged by three of his children who are fighting to prevent him from changing the terms of the irrevocable trust (worth $1.49 billion) he created to take over his empire when he dies. The closed hearing before a probate judge began on September 16 in Reno, Nevada. We will likely not know what is going on until either a settlement is reached that everyone agrees to, or the case goes to court because one or the other side appeals the probate judge’s decision.

In a nutshell, Murdoch has six children by his first three wives. According to this report, “The trust was formed at the time of the 1999 divorce of Rupert from his second wife, Anna Murdoch Mann, the mother of James, Lachlan and Elisabeth. She wanted to ensure her children had a future ownership stake in the Murdoch empire. The trust was “irrevocable,” meaning it would be difficult to alter.”

Under the terms of the trust, Murdoch’s four eldest children (from his first two wives) would end up sharing equally the 40% voting power over the father’s empire. But while the eldest son Lachlan shares his father’s political views, the other three Prudence (from his first wife), Elisabeth, and James have gone in a different direction. In fact, James has endorsed Kamala Harris. That may be why the patriarch wanted to change the terms of the trust so that Lachlan would inherit all the controlling power of 40%.
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The source of the false Haitian rumor apologizes

I am not active on social media but do have an account on Nextdoor, that connects people living in a small geographical area and thus supposedly consists of one’s neighbors. In theory it helps people get to know their neighborhood by sharing information about it. I do not check the feeds that often but occasionally see posts where people report something that they ‘heard’ about and asking if anyone else has too. Some of these posts contain speculations that are bigoted or at least sail close to that line. Sometimes other people call them out on it but often it just disappears into the ether. Some posters seem to see themselves as small-time investigative journalists and deliver ‘scoops’ by being the first to relay some juicy morsel of information, often in the form of a rumor.

Apart from so-called ‘influencers’ who use social media to try to reach huge audiences as part of their business model, most social media users tend to use it largely to communicate with friends, family, and affinity groups of people who share similar interests. This can give a feeling of intimacy, that you are only talking to a small group, and thus one might be more inclined to spread baseless gossip, not realizing that your network is connected to the much larger internet and could, given the right conditions, explode your post into the general public consciousness, if it is picked up and relayed by people with much larger audiences.

That seems to be what happened with the ugly story about Haitians in Springfield, OH eating people’s cats and dogs. The person who first posted a rumor without any evidence on Facebook now regrets what she did.
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