Russia’s president has said that Trump was right when he claimed that the Ukraine war would never have happened if Trump had been in office. He also supported the idea that the 2020 elections was stolen.
In an interview with Russian state television, Putin praised Trump as a “clever and pragmatic man” who is focused on U.S. interests.
“We always had a business-like, pragmatic but also trusting relationship with the current U.S. president,” Putin said. “I couldn’t disagree with him that if he had been president, if they hadn’t stolen victory from him in 2020, the crisis that emerged in Ukraine in 2022 could have been avoided.”
This follows an earlier statement by Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov praising Trump’s views on the Ukraine conflict.
Russia’s top diplomat said Tuesday that Moscow is open for talks with President-elect Donald Trump and praised him for pointing to NATO’s plan to embrace Ukraine as a root cause of the nearly 3-year-old conflict.
Any prospective peace talks should involve broader arrangements for security in Europe, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at his annual news conference, while adding that Moscow is open to discussing security guarantees for Kyiv.
Lavrov specifically praised Trump’s comments earlier this month in which he said that NATO’s plans to open its doors to Ukraine had led to the hostilities.
Trump said Russia had it “written in stone” that Ukraine’s membership in NATO should never be allowed, but the Biden administration had sought to expand the military alliance to Russia’s doorstep. Trump added that, “I could understand their feelings about that.”
Putin is not stupid and cannot possibly believe that Trump won in 2020. So what is going on here? It seems to me that he is well aware that Trump admires dictatorial leaders and is highly susceptible to flattery. Perhaps, given Trump’s antipathy to NATO, Putin hopes that Trump will withdraw US support for Ukraine’s admission to that body in exchange for some kind of peace deal. But it seems unlikely that Russia will withdraw from all the regions of Ukraine that it has occupied at such a cost. So perhaps the deal will involve an acceptance of the status quo and no NATO admission for Ukraine in return for a cessation of hostilities.
This will make Ukraine livid of course but Trump will not care because he can then boast that he ended the war as promised.
by the phrasing above, “crisis in ukraine could have been avoided,” all i imagine he means is that ukraine would have had less global support and just let themselves be annexed. i don’t think that’s true for a second. russia might be closer to “victory” now, at best, but they’d still be in a horrific bloody quagmire with no true end in sight.
Putin is a veteran of the
Ministry of TruthKGB. What he actually believes to be true is irrelevant. Everything he says is manipulation and disinformation. And right now he’s buttering Trump up and rewarding him with praise for saying what Putin wants him to say. That, in short, is his game.He’s flattering Trump because he knows Trump is inclined to pressure Ukraine into accepting a peace deal that solidifies the maximum amount of Russian gains. Trump doesn’t care about how much Ukraine loses, and is profoundly susceptible to flattery, so it seems like a pretty straightforward strategy.
Mano:
The USA and Europe are becoming more nationalistic. So a NATO membership for the Ukraine is unlikely.
Russian troops are on the advance in Ukraine, and Western support for Ukraine is crumbling. Putin’s aim is a Russian empire, not peace.
Flattering Trump so that he sides even more with Russia and not Ukraine, because everyone can see Trump is a man-child who responds well to such. Simple.
It’s not just flattery which motivates Trump — I think that being a defeater (or a winner) is the bigger motivator for him. This is where Putin has an advantage over the scheming sycophants who surround Trump, each one in the hope that they will out-manipulate Trump to gain advantage over the others.
It seems to me Putin understands being a defeater… and he’s proved better at it and has several orders of magnitude more patience.
Like DT, Putin only cares about Putin. Anything that strengthens the Soviet Union (sorry, Russia) and weakens the US is what he’s going to do. Putin may be blinded by his ambitions and make mistakes, but he isn’t stupid.
Orange Crook will claim that he ended the war.
Vladolf Putler will deny that there was ever a war until “Ukraine attacked Russia”, but if Ukraine’s chance of entering NATO is quashed, will claim that the “special military operation to denazify Ukraine” was a resounding success.
Orange Crook’s followers will piss themselves laughing as he castigates any journalists that try to pin him down over his barefaced lies.
There will be no laughing in Russia.
I couldn’t disagree with him that if he had been president, if they hadn’t stolen victory from him in 2020, the crisis that emerged in Ukraine in 2022 could have been avoided.
I’d say that Putin is being diplomatic about the “stolen victory” and the “clever”. I doubt if he believes them but a bit of stroking of the egos of other heads of state is sometimes a job requirement. He may actually think that if Trump rather than Biden had been president there was a chance that the mess that started in Feb. 2022 could have been avoided. Trump can be pragmatic.
In December 2021, Moscow send letters to Washington and NATO, demanding consultations on a European-wide security discussion with some rather strong demands. Biden & Co seemed to have tossed them in the waste paper basket. I don’t know what NATO did but it likely followed Washington’s lead. It certainly did not talk to Moscow.
Trump likes to think of himself as a deal maker. There may have been a half-decent chance that he would have been willing to talk with Moscow. It might have opened up negotiations enough that something, at least a delaying action to gain a breathing space, opened up. Whether Trump would have gone for a deal, or been allowed to, seems dicey but as Churchill put it “Jaw jaw is better than war war”. (This works in British English).
The Lavrov remarks are perfectly obvious. They are just saying that Trump seems to understand the key Russian point: Russia could not allow Ukraine to join NATO. I believe every Soviet/Russian president from President Mikhail Gorbachev to President Vladimir Putin has warned that the eastward extension of NATO was unacceptable. US ambassador William Burn’s famous “Nyet means Nyet” cable from Moscow pointed out the serious problems of a Ukraine in NATO.
I think at the moment Putin is willing to do a little ego stroking in order to get the USA to at least consider talks. The Biden administration, as far as I know, had no public communications with Moscow since at least the collapse of the Ankara talks in early March of 2022.
But it seems unlikely that Russia will withdraw from all the regions of Ukraine that it has occupied at such a cost.
As far as Russia is concerned the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Kherson, and Lugansk Oblasts as well as Crimea are integral parts of Russia. There will be no withdrawals. As far as I can see, the only question is if oblasts such as Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv become part of Russia.
So perhaps the deal will involve an acceptance of the status quo and no NATO admission for Ukraine in return for a cessation of hostilities.
I think a simple cessation of hostilities would not be enough. Russia sees such a thing a simply a dodge to allow NATO to reinforce Kiev.
Rock solid guarantees that Ukraine would never be a member of NATO and acceptance of Russian territorial gains might be a basis for discussions. As long as there is a possibility of of NATO membership for Ukraine, Russia will simply keep grinding forward until the Ukrainian armed forces completely collapse or the Russian Army reaches the Polish, Slovakian, and Hungarian borders. For any number of reasons Russia does not want to advance as far as the borders but it looks like it will if it must.
From what I heard Trump say about Ukrainian and Russian casualties ad the Russian economy I do not think he understands the situation. He was quoting 1 million Russian casualties, 700,000 Ukrainian casualties and a wrecked Russian economy. The Ukrinian casualties may be about right, Russian casualties are likely well below 200,000 and the IMF has just said that Russian GPD (PPP) exceeds that of Japan and Germany. There is something seriously wrong with his briefings.
The new secretary of State, Marco Rubio has a somewhat better grasp of the Ukrainian problem, “The problem is that they are running out not of money, but they are running out of Ukrainians.”
My best guestimate is that Kiev-controlled Ukraine has a population in the 14-20 million range with a large proportion of these being the elderly. Massive numbers of people, usually the young and middle aged have fled to Europe and beyond or are in Russia.
That’s basically Kremlin propaganda. The “mess” was the result of an imperialist invasion of the most brutal kind, and of the victims’ resistance to that invasion. The demands, amounting to an ultimatum, were made in the knowledge that they would not conceivably be met -- they can be seen here. The invasion had already been decided on, and the aim then was what it is now: to annex most of Ukraine, set up a puppet state in the rest, and destroy the concept of a Ukraine or Ukrainian nationality or culture independent of Russia. This is abundantly clear from Putin’s bizarre 2021 pseudo-historical essay On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians. It’s also quite clear Putin expected a rapid triumph. Trump’s casualty figures are pulled out of the air (or the arse), but so are yours. “Casualties” is usually taken to include both killed and wounded, and many of the later may return to fighting. Of course both sides minimise their own losses and exaggerate those of the enemy; I’m not going to attempt any estimates, although it is very likely the Russians have lost considerably more due to their frequent “human wave” tactics. Estimates from multiple sources are available here.
It is only too likely Trump will abandon the Ukrainians to Putin’s tender mercies. In the case of a collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces there will certainly be a further large-scale flight of Ukrainians to the west. Many of those remaining will be killed, many of the rest deported to distant parts of Russia and replaced with Russians. The result will be a huge boost to fascism across Europe, and very likely the collapse of both NATO and the EU, and further Russian invasions, most likely of the Baltic States and Moldova. I’m sure you will welcome this outcome.
@ 10 KG
That’s basically Kremlin propaganda. The “mess” was the result of an imperialist invasion of the most brutal kind, and of the victims’ resistance to that invasion
On February 24th 2022, Russian forces carried out a limited military initiative in Ukraine.
Would you care to point out this “brutality” in the first assault? Not including Russia’s attack on Ukrainian military positions which made me think a lot of NATO generals woke up to a nightmare.
The demands, amounting to an ultimatum, were made in the knowledge that they would not conceivably be met — they can be seen here.
I am having a problem finding the actual text at that link but from what I remember the demands were very rude and, more or less did amount to an ultimatum. I remember being shocked.
The invasion had already been decided on,
No but it was considered a last, or close to last result resort.
I think President Zeleznky’s threat to obtain nuclear weapons was the last straw. Ukraine had a lot of civil nuclear knowledge running its several nuclear power plants and had been a centre of nuclear weapons development in the USSR. Putin tends to be somewhat literal-minded. If you tell him you are going to do something he takes you at your word until other evidence contradicts it.
and the aim then was what it is now: to annex most of Ukraine, set up a puppet state in the rest, and destroy the concept of a Ukraine or Ukrainian nationality or culture independent of Russia.
No. If anything Russia did not want the financial burden of bringing parts of Ukraine to Russian standards. Russia had already realized the cost in Crimea. It did not need a few poverty-stricken Ukrainian oblasts dragging its economy down. I think just the chance of the acquisition of the Donbas republics was regarded with horror.
This is abundantly clear from Putin’s bizarre 2021 pseudo-historical essay On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.
I skimmed this years ago so you need to point out the problems. Sorry. I did not see anything wrong but I could have missed a lot.
It’s also quite clear Putin expected a rapid triumph.
I would prefer to say that the Russian Gov’t expected a rapid victory but you are totally correct. In fact, he got it. Kiev immediately started to negotiate with Moscow, first in Belarus and then in Ankara where a draft agreement was initialed.
Trump’s casualty figures are pulled out of the air (or the arse), but so are yours
No, mine are based on “relatively” good figures ranging from MEDIAZONA to random remarks by Ukrainian gov’t figures and former members of the Ukrainian Gov’t. I’d give them a fairly wide confidence range but they are roughly accurate.
“Casualties” is usually taken to include both killed and wounded, and many of the later may return to fighting.
True but from what I am reading I am assuming that “casualties” implies dead or badly wounded enough to mean no immediately return to action. I may be wrong here.
Of course both sides minimise their own losses and exaggerate those of the enemy; I’m not going to attempt any estimates, although it is very likely the Russians have lost considerably more due to their frequent “human wave” tactics. Estimates from multiple sources are available here.
Oh, bullshit. “Human wave attacks”? Give me a good example? Somehow small groups of Russian soldiers attacking on motorcycles does not look like a human wave.
You may not have noticed that the Russia’s General Staff has been doing everything it can to keep casualties low. Heck, in the first part of the conflict it seemed to want to keep Ukrainian casualties slow. This last no longer seems to apply.
It is only too likely Trump will abandon the Ukrainians to Putin’s tender mercies.
Well if he’s sensible he would and try to drive a hard bargain for their welfare. The war is lost.
In the case of a collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces there will certainly be a further large-scale flight of Ukrainians to the west.
I doubt it. Large numbers but nothing like what we saw in early 2022. A lot of those who could or wanted to flee are already gone.
Many of those remaining will be killed, many of the rest deported to distant parts of Russia and replaced with Russians.
Are you an utter fool or just ignorant? Many Ukrainians, especially in the old Novarussia and in places like Kharkov and Kiev have family in Russia. They are going to exile grandma to Yakutsk?
The mother of the former Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu, came from Ukraine. Probably about 50% of Russians/Ukrainians are closely related. You think that Russians in Moscow or St Petersburg really want Uncle Vanya and cousin Anastasia sent to the Far East in some kind of penal colony?
The result will be a huge boost to fascism across Europe,
Europe is doing well enough on its own. Given Russia’s stated goal to denatziify Ukraine I am not sure how this will “be a huge boost to fascism across Europe” unless Europe welcomes a bunch of Ukrainian Nazi fugitives with open arms.
I welcome the collapse of NATO. It’s raison d’être died with the demise of the USSR. It’s record in Libya and Afghanistan has not endeared it to me.
I don’t know about the EU. I think it is dysfunctional at the moment but with reforms I think it holds great promise for Europe.