Plumbing the depths of gullibility

I was reading some of Elon Musk’s claims from July, and marveling at how much he gets away with.

“Mars may be a fixer upper of a planet, but it has great potential!” the billionaire wrote.

User @PPathole responded, asking Musk what he believes is the “timeframe for creating a self-sustaining civilization” there.

“20 years? Self-sustaining meaning not relying/[dependent] on Earth for supplies,” he said.

“20 to 30 years from first human landing if launch rate growth is exponential,” the Tesla co-founder replied. “Assumes transferring ~100k each rendezvous and ~1M total people needed.”

I goggled at that exchange. Such blithe confidence! Where were those numbers coming from? He seems to believe plopping one million people (as if he could) onto the surface of Mars will trigger some miraculous auto-catalysis that will solve all the biological and engineering problems that he can’t even imagine. Throw enough people at this hostile world and they’ll figure everything out for him.

I don’t know that he actually believes in that. He seems to be an autonomous hype machine.

But then I wondered, are there actually people out there who listen to Musk and don’t constantly think, “that’s bullshit”? Are you one of them? I’ve never met a Musk true-believer, but if they exist at all, they’d be fascinating to have a conversation with…until it got too frustrating. Speak up! Explain in the comments how MuskMath works.

And finally, I wondered how a credible journalist could quote that claim without instantly raising objections (I know, it’s a Fox News link, so it’s a purely hypothetical credibility.) The commenters on that article, with a few exceptions, certainly are gung-ho, and amusingly, many are complaining that they are so old that 20 years is unattainable. Again, if you’re out there, explain here how you would support the claim. I know, it’s a bit like jumping into a shark tank, but hey, you’re the one who’d provide the math and engineering background.

As a starting point, let’s begin with a simpler example. You’ve been granted a large chunk of Antarctica as a gift (and a generous exception to international law), and have been able to lease a fleet of cruise ships, with a capacity of 5000 people each. You load them up, and make 200 trips from ports around the world, dropping them off on a rocky beach in Antarctica, along with tents and prefab buildings. How long until you have a self-sustaining colony that is sending profits back to you? How long until the distress calls go out and you have to rescue the survivors?

I’ve often wondered how, if erecting self-sustaining colonies is so easy, we haven’t been eagerly plundering our southern-most continent, which, while possibly a bit inhospitable, does have the little amenities of air and water, both lacking on Mars.

Shouldn’t we also consider the possibility that this is all an improbable fantasy of total civilian control by a breed of ignorant oligarchs, anyway?

Oh no! Classes begin one week from today!

Also, candidate visits for our chemistry position start in one week.

My genetics class is fairly well organized except for one thing: the stocks of brown (bw) eyed flies have almost completely crapped out. That’s always been a sickly line, but this year they’ve been pathetic. I’m desperately trying to nurse a handful of flies into vigor, and if they don’t get it together real soon now, I’m going to flush them all and order fresh flies. I’ve got a backup plan to do a different cross to keep the students busy for 6 weeks or so, but it’s also more difficult experiment, and I prefer to do the bw x st cross as a warmup.

We also have the board of regents visiting in March, and they’re being invited to sit in on the lab. Our students aren’t very happy with the regents as it is, and if they use it as an opportunity to ask pointed questions, I’m going to allow it. I’ll probably encourage it.

Today and tomorrow are the local high school science fair. I’m one of the judges. That should be interesting, around here we get a mix of brilliant kids with creative ideas and kids who like an excuse to shoot things.

I’m feeling mildly distracted right now — and this stupid cold, while gradually abating, isn’t helping much.

I believe they are all witches

There is no bar too low. A recently elected Republican representative from Florida, Anna Paulina Luna — you know this is a poor start to anything — is squabbling with a competitor, and has sued him to get him to retract defamatory claims.

A letter obtained by The Daily Beast reveals that the Florida Republican retained the high-powered law firm Holland & Knight to go after a would-be rival who leveled a series of outlandish allegations against Luna on the Bubba the Love Sponge radio show in the fall.

The letter demands that Matt Tito, a pal of Roger Stone who mulled challenging Luna in a primary, apologize on video for his accusations, which include claims that Luna was fired from a job—and that she had a sexual liaison with Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Oh, what a world…that a show called Bubba the Love Sponge would have any credibility, and that it would even exist, is an indictment of the Florida radio audience. OK, but I agree, an accusation that one had sex with that slimeball Matt Gaetz is grossly insulting. Focus on that…oh wait, she’s more concerned about a different accusation?

“You said that Ms. Luna (a devout Christian) practices witchcraft,” Lisko added.

“You are hereby demanded to publicly and immediately retract each and every defamatory statement you made about Ms. Luna on the show,” Lisko continued. “Because you do not have the ability to distribute your retraction widely on your social media, you are demanded to apologize and retract your statements on the Bubba the Love Sponge Show or by making a retraction and apology video that you send to me that Ms. Luna will distribute via her social media.”

Tito is not backing down. He claims to have evidence that she is a witch based on hearsay statements from “MAGA figures,” so we’re already relying on dubious sources.

Tito claimed he learned about Luna’s purported background from other MAGA figures.

According to Tito, Hispanics for Trump associate Paloma Zuniga said that “Luna practices witchcraft.”

“That is where I heard that from,” Tito said. “She puts spells on people.”

Their reasoning is remarkable.

Another failed California Republican congressional hopeful, Omar Navarro, suggested the unsubstantiated rumors must be accurate because so many people were repeating them.

“It has got to be true to a certain extent,” he told The Daily Beast. “It’s fair enough to say that it’s spread among people in the Republican Party.”

So Ted Cruz actually is the Zodiac killer? All it takes is enough people saying something is true for it to be true? If enough of us simply say that all Republicans are witches, they’ll all be run out of office, or they’ll use their sorcerous powers to enchant the public into believing them.

Who is to say that last possibility isn’t already true? Witches, every one.

The NYTimes hired a new opinion columnist?

Given their track record, pardon me for expecting the worst.

Also, hey look, they hired David French, meeting my very low expectations.

French served as a senior counsel for ADF, a legal advocacy group that has opposed any expansion of LGBTQ+ civil rights as an attack on so-called “religious freedom.” ADF has been designated as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

During his time as an ADF counsel, he defended a Georgia graduate student who sued her university after being told that her anti-gay “Christian beliefs” were incompatible with the standards of her desired profession as a psychological counselor. The student considered homosexuality an “immoral” “lifestyle choice.”

French signed onto a 2017 religious right document called the “Nashville Statement,” which said God designed marriage to be only between a man and a woman. The document also stated “it is sinful to approve of homosexual immorality or transgenderism,” and called transgender identity and homosexuality a sin and “at odds with God.”

I seriously wonder how their hiring meetings operate. I’ve participated in a few here at the university, and they always being with a meeting with HR, where they go over our criteria, which are typically stuff like, “must teach organic chemistry,” with an HR person to remind us that nothing about our search criteria excludes women and minorities, and then when we’ve got a preliminary list of candidate for phone interviews, that list is sent to HR where they inspect it for bias (“why is your list only white men?”), and after we winnow the list down over the phone, we send it to HR for approval before we invite anyone for an in-person interview, while carefully justifying each exclusion (“did you drop this person from the pool because they have an accent?” “Heck no, it’s because they want to do quantum neurochemistry and we don’t have the facilities.”) Every thing is about making sure we do all our selection on the basis of assessment of ability.

The NY Times, on the other hand, seems to have a simple process in which they look for a conservative white dude, and then a Sulzberger rubber-stamps the name. “Oh, he’s a gormless bigot? Love him already.”

They still pay David Brooks for his babbling. Every choice they made after that is suspect.

Turning point in the war against my personal virus

I have been cold-free for the last couple of years, which is a desirable condition to be in. Then, almost a week and a half ago, my granddaughter showed up at my doorstep with a face full of snot. We let her in. We knew the price we would pay.

I’ve been miserably clogged up ever since. I was waking up 3 or 4 times a night, struggling to breathe. I was horking up thick, slimy mucus all the time, feeling exhausted and disgusting.

Last night, though was a welcome turning point. I slept a continuous 8 hours! I woke up still able to breathe! I’m still messily congested, but it’s clearly at the mop-up phase where I send macrophages armed with flamethrowers into the caves and tunnels of my face to torch the invaders. Yay! I might be back to normal in time for back-to-school.

Unfortunately, there is a more worrisome virus waiting in the wings: XBB-1.5.

Three years after the novel coronavirus emerged, a new variant, XBB.1.5, is quickly becoming the dominant strain in parts of the United States because of a potent mix of mutations that makes it easier to spread broadly, including among those who have been previously infected or vaccinated.

XBB.1.5, pegged by the World Health Organization as “the most transmissible” descendant yet of the omicron variant, rose from barely 2 percent of U.S. cases at the start of December to more than 27 percent the first week of January, according to new estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

More than 70 percent of cases in the Northeast are believed to be XBB.1.5.

We must remain ever-vigilant. Mask up, everyone! I’m afraid my university administration, as well as the federal administration, are committed to downplaying all concerns. My university hasn’t changed their policies since last May, when they decided that nobody needed to wear a mask at all.

We’ve also got the usual idiots who understand neither evolution nor public health who have decided that new variants are caused by vaccination.

While there is no evidence so far that XBB.1.5 is more virulent than its predecessors, a recent swirl of misinformation linking the rise of new variants to vaccination has cast a spotlight on this latest strain and raised concern among some health experts that it could further limit booster uptake.

“XBB did not evolve because people were vaccinated,” said Vaughn Cooper, a professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Pittsburgh. “The way it evolved, let’s be straight, is because people were infected by multiple viruses at the same time.”

Since the omicron variant ignited an explosion of cases last winter, it spawned a host of descendants that are even more adept at slipping past antibodies and caused most infections in the United States. The XBB line emerged as a result of two other omicron subvariants swapping parts.

Isn’t that obvious? I mean, you’ve got the responsible people who take every measure to avoid the disease, and then you’ve got the people who go to football games and Walmart without taking precautions, who end up being little ambulatory cauldrons mixing up multiple variants simultaneously, and then some bozo decides the emergence of the explosion of new mix-and-match variants must be the fault of the guy who got the vaccines and stayed home in a safe little bubble.

You know that bozo is going to be featured almost every night on Fox News and Newsmax, and is going to have a popular Facebook page, because the media are fucked.

Back to normal!

We’re winding down to the last week of our winter break, and Mary and I took off to the Big City for a few days. We had no grand plans, just a break from the routine, where we’d hang out in a hotel and do some exploring. Unfortunately, we got there immediately after a major storm dumped a dense layer of wet snow on the city. We arrived as the snow plows were clearing out places where we could park — and they weren’t done by the time we would leave. That cramped our style, since walking around the city was slogging through nearly impassable piles of thick soggy stuff. Our grand adventure was reduced to short walks to nice restaurants.

We also met up with Marcus Ranum, who was in Minneapolis to help a friend move. He drove a truck from Pennsylvania to Minnesota during a snowstorm! I want a friend like that, who’d drop what he was doing to drive 800 miles to help me move. We got a pleasant eveing out of it, at least.

Yesterday was spent driving back and taking naps. Now I have no excuse, I have to start assembling a syllabus and getting organized for genetics.

What a mess of a city

Yesterday, we traveled to Minneapolis. It was the day after a big snowstorm, and the only thing worse would be if we arrived a day earlier. Sidewalks haven’t been cleared, roads are covered with slush, and we tried walking around town. It wasn’t fun. Two foot tall piles of snow on the path made it more of a mountain climbing adventure.

One positive, though: I’m still suffering with this nasty deep-seated cold, erupting occasionally into hoarse coughing and snotty horrible sneezes. I found a cure! It’s only temporary, though, but it is good for a few hours relief. We went to an Indian restaurant and I ordered a vindaloo with a couple of volcanoes worth of hotness. It worked! My sinuses were thoroughly cleared out, I could breath unimpeded, and my throat was quivering in terror — if it coughed one more time, I was going to order another raund.

I am sorry to report, though, that around 2am the slime had oozed back and repopulated every cranial cavity. I may have to do it again.

I’m sorry, I may have gone too far

Ever since the Trump administration, I’ve been standing in my shrine, chanting “BLOOD AND SOULS FOR MY LORD ARIOCH,” and leaving a chalice of blood on the altar, all in hopes of summoning the chaos lords to my aid. I may have miscalculated. I did not expect my ritual to be so effective.

The Republican party has descended into shrieking madness, unable to accomplish even the most basic tasks of governing. On the positive side, that may mean they’re going to be unable to implement the specifics of their evil agenda, but on the debit side, they’re also blocking one of the houses of congress from governing at all.

I was thinking maybe I should back off a bit on the ritual incantations, but Arioch does not treat weakness kindly, and the backlash against me, personally, would be unthinkable. I must continue. I will accept the blame if the house of representatives bursts into green flames, Lauren Boebert is elected speaker, and giant tentacled beasts manifest in the Potomac. But you knew this is where the Republicans were going all along, right?

Student Evaluation of Teaching

For you non-academics unfamiliar with life at the university, yesterday was the day I got my evaluations. Yes, it’s true, the students get to turn everything around and grade the faculty on their performance. I can’t actually fail — tenure, you know — but these things do matter when it’s time to determine raises and that sort of thing (which will be roughly in mid-March). The department gets a tiny pot of money that the chair will dole out to the good little boys and girls, and she will use student evals as part of the determination, which also includes research and service.

So yesterday I cracked the virtual envelope to get the results, and they were fine. On a scale of 0 to 6, I got all 5s and 6s, which might translate into a raise of a few tens of dollars in a few months. It probably isn’t worth it, because I have to bust my ass for a year to get biology across to the students.

What’s more interesting is the comments students write, which I take far more seriously than numbers punched into a Likert scale, and are far more likely to get me to change things in the course. I got a few criticisms that made me happy.

Students said, “wasted too much time on creationism” and “I want to learn more biology, not creationism.” For context, I give ONE(1) lecture out of 30 that addresses religious objections to evolutionary theory. One. And this audience of smart millennials is just completely over it. That makes me so happy.

OK, have it your way. I’m cutting that lecture out of next year’s curriculum, and replacing it with more straight-up unvarnished biology, with no regrets. I hope this class is representative of their generation, because it’s about time we could ignore that nonsense.

Photoreceptor evolution

There was a fair amount of interest in my discussion of eye evolution last week, so let’s get a little more in-depth. This is a lecture on the level of what I tell my first year students in intro biology, so let’s see if I can put you to sleep, too.

Premieres at 2pm Central this afternoon. I’ll check in then to answer any questions, if any.

I’ve got a nasty cold, but I think my voice held up as well as could be expected — at least I held off the sneezing & coughing & vulgar snerks.