Climate change science is getting more accurate, in part becuase of building on past research like any other science, and in part because computers are able to handle more and more complex chaotic models. Where the exact tipping point might be for a specific weather event is now clearer, and in some cases, the models indicate that critical factor is indeed global warming:
Reuters– A report by Field’s U.N. group last year showed that more weather extremes that can be linked to greenhouse warming, such as the number of high temperature extremes and the fact that the rising fraction of rainfall falls in downpours. But scientists warn against going too far in blaming climate change for extreme events.
Unprecedented floods in Thailand last year, for instance, that caused $45 billion in damage according to a World Bank estimate, were caused by people hemming in rivers and raising water levels rather than by climate change, a study showed.