Computer genuis Steve Jobs didn’t live to see the technological singularity he helped usher in, but it may be coming faster than predicted. Most futurists speculate the techno-singularity will be set off by the creation of hyper-intelligent machines with intellectual and problem solving capabilities as far ahead of their human creators as we are ahead of rabbits. Our only real hope to remain relevant in such a future would be to augment our own capabilities and/or integrate with our artificial counterparts.
IBM has announced they hope to reach one of the first major milestones on the way to the singularity within ten years:
Big Blue is working hard to make sure that the next decade is its biggest yet in computing advances, with projects in the works to create the world’s most powerful supercomputer and one with the same number of nodes as the human brain.
These future devices don’t have to be aggressive, Skynet is not inevitable, they may be downright helpful. It’s just that humans are made of atoms that they might be able to use for something else …
Yep, humans are good for raw materials and as batteries.
On the other hand, I don’t doubt that several mini-signularities have already occurred. The invention of the internet was one. We, almost literally, cannot function with out it. Computers were another one. My vet can’t operate on my cat without a computer*.
IBM has made so very interesting advances recently.
I think the best example of an upcoming singularity event will be when we can tell a computer what we need in plain language and the computer will write a program, perform the needed calculations, etc to make it happen.
* They don’t keep paper files, so he can’t determine how my cat reacts to certain anesthesia without the computer and internet.
A just machine to make big decisions
Programmed by fellows with compassion and vision
We’ll be clean when their work is done
We’ll be eternally free yes and eternally young
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
~Donald Fagen, I.G.Y. (from The Nightfly)
To be honest, I imagine when many of us think about the technological singularity today is how many people felt about mechanization of workplaces on the brink of the industrial revolution.
I wonder, though, if people are realizing that intelligence does not necessarily equal sentience and self-thinking. IBM built a certified Jeopardy champion, arguably the best of all time, but when you get right down to it all it is just very advanced sentence diagramming and search routines. I think we have a much longer way to go before we see true machine sentience.
While the exponential nature of technological progress is now very well established it makes little sense to use the buzz-word “Singularity” torefer to the up-coming very major changes.
There is quite good evidence to support the proposition that this event is actually a “phase transition” to a new life form that is at present in the process of self-assembly in the shape of what we at present call the Internet.
For an informal expansion upon the broad evolutionary model which encompasses this prediction see: “The Goldilocks Effect: What Has Serendipity Ever Done For Us?” (free download in e-book formats from the “Unusual Perspectives” website)