Isaac Chotiner of The New Yorker interviewed Danny Citrinowicz, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council and an expert on the Middle East, for his assessment of the current wars in the Middle East. Citrinowicz was brutal. He says that there is no way for Trump to avoid humiliating failure over the Iran war, that Benjamin Netanyahu is also in a bind, and that it is the Iranians, especially the hardliners, who are emerging from this war stronger than before, despite all the damage from the bombing.
We have to remember what happened on February 28th—that Israel and the United States launched this campaign to topple the regime. In fact, they ended up strengthening it. Opening the strait is not an achievement, since its closing was a by-product of the war itself. The Iranians are going to get some money, and sanctions relief may come after the deal is signed, too. If they don’t get money from this, they won’t do it. So, in that regard, what we’re facing right now is a war that may have been a tactical success for the U.S., but is a strategic failure.
But I think Trump is fed up with the current situation, and I think that he’s also afraid of escalation. He could escalate tomorrow, but I think he’s afraid of having boots on the ground. And I think he might be starting to understand that even escalation won’t change the strategic situation, because the Iranians are not going to capitulate. A blockade won’t do it; hitting energy facilities won’t do it; nothing will. And they’re ready to retaliate. So Trump didn’t have any other options besides this deal.
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