I have been keeping tabs on this excellent site that tells you the growth over time of confirmed covid-19 cases in each country. You can pick which countries you want to display using the menu at the bottom right. It is plotted so that the x-axis gives the total cumulative number of cases while the y-axis gives the number of new cases over the previous seven days. (You can also choose to plot deaths.) The graph is log-log so that a straight upward line means the growth of cases is exponential, with the
steepness of the slope intercept indicating the doubling time for the number of cases. It is obviously not good to be lying on that straight line or on a line that curves upward. What you want to see is the curve turning down sharply. (You can also choose to have the data displayed on a linear scale but that is not so helpful when one is dealing with a huge variation in numbers country by country.)
What the data shows is that China, South Korea, and Hong Kong are among the countries where the curve turns down sharply. Even Italy, France, and Germany have started to turn down fairly sharply. But in the case of the US and UK, while the graphs have deviated downwards from the straight line, they are still largely flat, meaning that the numbers are increasing rapidly at a fairly steady rate, even if not exponentially. That is not good, especially since there are moves to relax the restrictions on physical distancing.
Someone has started what he calls the Trump Death Clock that keeps steadily ticking up, that estimates the number of deaths due to the delays by Trump in recognizing the danger and taking meaningful steps. It is a very crude measure, though.
The Trump Death Clock provides a bald tally of lives that it claims were needlessly lost to Covid-19 that ticks upwards in real time. At the time of reporting this article, it stood at 39,435 – laying responsibility for almost 40,000 American lives at the White House door.
The figure is in turn based upon the authoritative running tally of total deaths from Covid-19 compiled by the Covid Tracking Project. From its daily read-out of coronavirus fatalities, Jarecki’s team has created the Trump Death Clock through a simple mathematical calculation of 60% of total deaths from the disease in the US.
The 60% ratio used in the death clock was drawn from a study by two prominent epidemiologists, Britta Jewell of Imperial College, London, and Nicholas Jewell, a professor of biostatistics at UC Berkeley. Writing in the New York Times in April, they posited the theory that if Trump had introduced the White House social distancing guidelines not on 16 March but a week earlier on 9 March, a 60% reduction in the expected final death count could have resulted given the exponential spread of the virus.
There are plans to make a physical clock that keeps ticking upwards and placing it in a very visible public place. [UPDATE: A billboard has gone up in Times Square in New York City.]
Meanwhile Trump continues to flail, one day announcing that he was discontinuing the work of the coronavirus task force to focus on reopening the country and then, following a predictable outcry, saying that he would keep it in place.
Then treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin gets into a Twitter spat with Axl Rose,the frontman for the rock band Guns N’ Roses, that does not go well for him, with Mnuchin’s attacks on the other’s patriotism backfiring.
Honestly, doesn’t Mnuchin have more important things to deal with at a time like this than responding to Twitter attacks by random people? These people are so thin-skinned.