So much effort spiraling down the drain of AI

Google has come up with a new tool for generating video called Veo — feed it some detailed prompts, and it will spit back realistic video and audio. David Gerard and Aron Peterson decided to test it and put it through its paces, and see whether it produces output that is useful commercially or artistically. It turns out to be disappointing.

The problems are inherent to the tools. You can’t build a coherent narrative and structured sequence with an algorithm that just uses predictive models based on fragments of disconnected images. As Gerard says,

Veo doesn’t work. You get something that looks like it came out of a good camera with good lighting — because it was trained on scenes with good lighting. But it can’t hold continuity for seven seconds. It can’t act. The details are all wrong. And they still have the nonsense text problem.

The whole history of “artificial intelligence” since 1955 is making impressive demos that you can’t use for real work. Then they cut your funding off and it’s AI Winter again.

AI video generators are the same. They’re toys. You can make cool little scenes. In a super limited way.

But the video generators have the same problems they had when OpenAI released Sora. And they’ll keep having these problems as long as they’re just training a transformer on video clips and not doing anything with the actual structure of telling a visual story. There is no reason to think it’ll be better next year either.

So all this generative AI is good for is making blipverts, stuff to catch consumers’ attention for the few seconds it’ll take to sell them something. That’s commercially viable, I suppose. But I’ll hate it.

Unfortunately, they’ve already lost all the nerds. Check out Council of Geeks’ video about how bad Lucasfilm and ILM are getting. You can’t tell an internally consistent, engaging story with a series of SIGGRAPH demos spliced together, without human artists to provide a relevant foundation.

America is a zombie nation infected with the rage virus

Two days ago, Donald Trump was whining that he wasn’t going to win a Nobel Peace Prize, despite the fact that he had been so great at negotiating peace in the world.

I am very happy to report that | have arranged, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a wonderful Treaty between the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Republic of Rwanda, in their War, which was known for violent bloodshed and death, more so even than most other Wars, and has gone on for decades. Representatives from Rwanda and the Congo will be in Washington on Monday to sign Documents. This is a Great Day for Africa and, quite frankly, a Great Day for the World! | won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for this, | won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for stopping the War between India and Pakistan, | won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for stopping the War between Serbia and Kosovo, | won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for keeping Peace between Egypt and Ethiopia (A massive Ethiopian built dam, stupidly financed by the United States of America, substantially reduces the water flowing into The Nile River), and | won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for doing the Abraham Accords in the Middle East which, if all goes well, will be loaded to the brim with additional Countries signing on, and will unify the Middle East for the first time in “The Ages!” No, | won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what | do, including Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/lran, whatever those outcomes may be, but the people know, and that’s all that matters to me!

He really, really wants a Nobel prize to put on his mantel. Obama got one, you know.

So yesterday he went golfing, and made an unconstitutional attack, an act of war, on Iran, sending B2 bombers to drop bunker-busters on Iranian nuclear sites. Not that he cares about the Constitution — it’s not as if Congress will suddenly grow a spine — or that he cares about loss of life, or that he cares that he has now embroiled the country in another massive, futile war in the Middle East, he’s got to prop up his belief that he’s a strong man. This is just standard petty tyrant shit, lashing out with violence because he’s not good enough to use American strength to do something right. Blow something up, sure, yeah, that works in the movies, so it’s what he’s going to do.

Donald Trump: Remember what I previously said–Obama will someday attack Iran in order to show how tough he is.

Actually, Obama negotiated a nuclear non-proliferation treaty with Iran.

Hello, 2003. I never wanted to see your ugly face again, with your baseless accusations of Weapons of Mass Destruction to justify wrecking another nation, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians, wasting thousands of American lives, spreading more chaos throughout a region on the other side of the world. All because Trump wants a “Mission Accomplished” banner of his very own, or, somehow, a Nobel Peace Prize. I expect he will at least get a bump in his favorability ratings, because this is a rogue nation in which many of the people will shout “YEE-HAAAW” and cheer as the bombs fall on some other country.

We’ve got the rage virus burning through the US. And you all know what you’ve got to do to stop a zombie.

A proud ally of Morris Pride

I walked to the Morris Pride celebration at Eastside Park this afternoon, wearing my Biology is Bigger than Binaries t-shirt.

I’m not wearing it now, because as soon as I got home I stripped off almost all my clothes. It’s hot! It was not a pleasant walk, but about 70 people braved the heat and were at the park. Right now I’m just sitting with a fan, drinking a lot of iced tea.

I also learned that Brokeback Mountain has been re-released, and is playing at the Morris Theater tomorrow morning at 10am, which means a lot of good Christians are going to have to skip church tomorrow.

I know it looks a bit blotchy, but that’s because I had it in my pocket, I was sweating ferociously, and all my clothes are a bit blotchy now.

Of course I will be attending, but I’d rather you didn’t. Brokeback Mountain always makes me cry, and I don’t want to be seen all red-eyed and teary at the end.

Microbial evolution…in spaaaace!

China has a space station named Tiangong that we don’t hear much about in US media, which is a shame. The station was launched in part because “Congress passed a law prohibiting NASA from collaborating with China aboard the ISS due to U.S. national security concerns.” More petty nationalism interfering with good science.

Anyway, they swabbed the crew quarters and discovered a novel bacterial species, Niallia tiangongensis. It is, of course, related to a common earth bacterium found in the soil, but it has evolved a few new adaptations.

Niallia tiangongensis exhibits structural and functional variations that mean it is well-adapted to existing in a space station. It possesses the ability to hydrolyze gelatin (break down this protein into smaller components) in a unique way, allowing the protein to be consumed for survival in nutrient-poor environments. In addition, these bacteria are able to form a protective biofilm, activate oxidative stress responses, and promote repair in the face of radiation damage. “This aids their survival in the space environment,” the paper explains.

In case you’re wondering if we’re creating a bacterium gap, have no fear: novel bacteria have also been found on the International Space Station. These 5 species are completely different from the Chinese species, unsurprisingly — these are new environments, and bacteria are rapidly diverging and adapting.

Five novel species of Gram-positive bacteria that were isolated from the ISS were analyzed. Their generic features and the results of other molecular analyses are presented. These bacteria were obtained from various flights, locations, and time periods, and are associated with different phylogenetic groups. The strain F6_3S_P_1C, which belongs to the Paenibacillus genus, has been identified as a spore-former, while the other four species were identified as non-spore-forming Actinobacteria. Through ANI and AAI analysis, we established closest Earth relatives. Additionally, we performed synteny analysis using all top ANI hits for each of the five organisms, but yielded no results (data not shown), thus indicating all ISS isolates are distinct species.

This is not a surprise. It’s what bacteria (and other living things) do — they adapt and evolve.

When will we get a vaccine against Billionaire Brain Disease?

Would anyone be surprised by this observation? Wealth and privilege mess up your head.

In 2011, a Berkeley grad student named Paul Piff conducted an experiment that has since become famous in the world of social psychology. Over the course of several weekends, Piff and his research team crouched behind bushes at the intersection of Interstate 80 and Lincoln Highway in Berkeley, California. When a vehicle passed, they would catalog it — “five” for a brand-new BMW, for instance; “one” for a beat-up Honda. Then the researchers would observe the behavior of the car’s driver.

For centuries, humans have studied and tried to understand our own hierarchies — how and why we arrange ourselves into tribes and nations and by what means certain groups and individuals rise to the top. But Piff had realized that we had little data on how wealth — a prime marker of power in our current times — affects the psychology of those who hold it. “In the U.S., we spend a lot of time pathologizing poverty and valorizing aspects of the rich,” he tells me. “I was really interested in the flip side of poverty: If poverty has these effects, then wealth must also, and let’s start to try to uncover what those are. There must be some pathologies there too, right?”

What Piff and his team found at that intersection is profound — and profoundly satisfying — in that it offers hard data to back up what intuition and millennia of wisdom (from Aristotle to Edith Wharton) would have us believe: Wealth tends to make people act like assholes, and the more wealth they have, the more of a jerk they tend to be.

At the intersection the researchers were monitoring, drivers of the most expensive cars were roughly four times more likely to cut others off and three times less likely to stop for pedestrians, even when controlling for factors like the driver’s perceived gender and amount of traffic at the time they were collecting data.

When someone from the research team posed as a pedestrian heading into the crosswalk, almost half of the grade-five cars failed to stop, as if they didn’t even see the person.

I’ve been doing a sloppy, half-assed version of this experiment for a while now — Morris only has two traffic lights on the main street, but all of the corners have crosswalks, and by law cars are expected to stop for pedestrians standing there. They don’t. I’ll step out into the street, not far enough that I’m in danger but far enough that drivers will have to notice my intent to cross, and then I count how many cars zip by before someone stops. Usually it’s not too many, but the ones who pretend I don’t exist are usually driving a monstrous huge shiny pickup truck, of the sort that MAGA like to buy to pretend they’re tough working class guys.

Even better is the corner with a traffic light, and a pedestrian signal to tell you when to cross. When I get the message to cross Atlantic avenue, the oncoming traffic gets a yellow light for a left turn. Many times I’ve started my legal crossing only to have someone in a big SUV decide to rush to make their left and turn right into me. A few times those drivers have been so annoyingly privileged that they honk at me to get out of their way.

You know this kind of behavior is going to have consequences…no, I take that back: it already has terrible consequences. Look at the people at the top of our government — all of them sociopaths. Not a single one I would object to seeing mowed down on main street by an oblivious Ford Super Duty F-450 driver.

…wealth-­related disengagement seems to not be so great for a species for which pro-social cooperation is programmed into our hunter-gatherer DNA. Clay Cockrell, a psychotherapist who caters to ultra-high-net-worth individuals, tells me he thinks of great wealth as subtractive: It doesn’t really add to one’s happiness, but it does take away struggles that can make someone unhappy. Yet it’s subtractive in a different sense, too — contributing to isolation, paranoia, grandiosity, and risk-taking behavior, as well as a pronounced lack of empathy. “As your wealth increases, your empathy decreases. Your ability to relate to other people who are not like you decreases.… It can be very toxic.”

Then in the middle of this article they bring up Darwin, only not Darwin, the bastardized version of evolution promoted by Herbert Spencer. Spencer is high on my long list of 19th century deplorables who invented various rationalizations for treating human beings horribly, justifying Gilded Age excesses and encouraging colonialism and various other kinds of exploitation.

Some of these men found such a justification in social Darwinism and the ideas of Herbert Spencer, a 19th-century psychologist and anthropologist who coined the phrase “survival of the fittest” not to explain biological evolution but rather to legitimize social hierarchies: Rich and powerful people are rich and powerful because they have innate traits that make them superior. Never mind the effects of systemic oppression (Spencer was an unapologetic racist) or the fact that, in a functioning democracy, no billionaire is entirely “self-made” (where would Bezos be without taxpayers paving the roads his Amazon trucks clog?) — historians today see a direct line from the social Darwinism of the Gilded Age to DOGE. “[With] tech leadership nowadays, I think the arguments are a little different: They don’t make explicit appeals to survival of the fittest,” says Luke Winslow, author of Oligarchy in America. “But you get phrases like ‘make the world a better place’ and ‘move fast and break things.’ Well, that’s very Darwinian, because if you break things, if you have disruption, catastrophe, the hope is that the strong will survive. You don’t have this crutch of a government allowing the losers and the weaklings to survive; you’ll weed them out. And this idea is really big in Silicon Valley, this justification of the concentration of wealth and power based on this idea that they deserve it. How do you know they deserved it? Well, geez, look at how rich Elon Musk is.”

They aren’t worthy. They’re opportunistic parasites who have latched on to the capitalist system and are taking advantage of its weaknesses. They’re spoiled twits living in a fantasy land that panders to their delusion that they are the best, the smartest, the greatest people who deserve billions of dollars in their pockets, and that the little people are all there to serve them.

There is no clearer example of their stupid ideas than the tech broligarchy’s dream of colonizing Mars, which is not going to happen.

“Musk talks about Mars as a lifeboat for humanity, which is among the very stupidest things that someone could say,” says Adam Becker, an astrophysicist and author of the book More Everything Forever, which outlines the messianic, sci-fi fantasies of the tech oligarchs. “There are so many reasons why it’s such a bad idea, and this is not about, ‘Oh, we’ll never have the technology to live on Mars.’ That’s not what I’m saying. What I’m saying is that Earth is always going to be a better option no matter what happens to Earth. Like, we could get hit with an asteroid the size of the one that killed off the dinosaurs, and Earth would still be more habitable. We could explode every single nuclear weapon, and Earth would still be more habitable. We could have the worst-case scenario for climate change, and Earth would still be more habitable. Any cursory examination of any of the facts about Mars makes it very clear.”

Then again, you don’t have to do a cursory examination of the facts of Mars if you believe tech is close to inventing a machine that can change the physical properties of the universe. In 2023, billionaire OpenAI CEO Sam Altman conceded that climate change was a huge problem, but brushed off its hugeness with the contention that super intelligent AI would soon be able to tell us how to make a lot of clean-energy facilities, how to amp up carbon capture, and how to do both of those things quickly and at scale. “What he said was, ‘A good way to solve global warming is to build a kind of machine without a clear definition that no one knows how to build, and then ask it for three wishes,’ ” Becker says with a sigh.

Sam Altman is notorious for his vapid echoing of the preconceptions of whoever he is talking to at the time. It would restore my faith in humanity a tiny bit if he were openly grifting, lying to get his next bolus of VC money, than that he actually believes in that nonsense about AI. I’m afraid I’m leaning more and more to the idea that these people are simply moronically stupid. And massively greedy and selfish.

The next edition of the DSM is going to have to include a long section on Billionaire Brain, the pathology of people given near unlimited access to everything they can dream of. It’s an ugly disease and it seems to be spreading to people who aren’t billionaires, but just dream of becoming billionaires.

Melinda Beck

Not in the market right now, but I’d consider it

I drive a 2011 Honda Fit. It’s an ultra-reliable car, running without a hitch for 14 years now, not even a hiccup. The labels on some of the buttons on the dashboard are wearing off, but that’s the only flaw so far. I feel like this might well be the last car I ever own.

Except…the next generation of Hondas might tempt me to upgrade.

It’s a three hour drive from my house to Minneapolis, and maybe a ballistic trajectory would make the trip quicker.

Also, not exploding is an important safety feature to me.

My purpose in life

I have been enlightened. I know exactly what my role on this Earth is.

Yesterday, my wife found a dead rabbit in the shrubbery in our yard. You couldn’t miss it — the odor was horrific. So of course she sent me out to dispose of it.

It had been disemboweled and left to rot for several days. I found spoor nearby, and I suspect the killer was a dog, since cats tend to be more fastidious and don’t leave large lumps of poop nearby. I scraped it into a garbage bag, and noticed that the entire body cavity was a writhing mass of maggots.

I did not take pictures of that, even if I was impressed. You can thank me for that.

I put the body in our garbage can. Fortunately, garbage pick up was the next day, that is, this morning. I figured I was done.

My wife interrupted me again this morning. She’d gone to bring the trash can into the garage this morning, only it wasn’t empty. She told me it was “insect related,” so it was my job.

The trash can was covered in maggots. They were in masses on the bottom, had crawled up the sides, were covering the lid, and were dripping off the container into the grass.

I will share a photo of the lid.

The rabbit was gone, and we’re talking tens of thousands of homeless maggots crawling everywhere. Everything was covered with maggots, which I guess explains why Mary hadn’t brought the garbage can in.

I used a garden hose to clean it up. There is now a patch of our yard that has been enriched with a wiggly mass of protein, I hope the birds appreciate it.