Now taking odds on who is going down first

Will it be Donald Trump?

A combination of controversy, scandal and low polling numbers have prompted oddsmakers at a U.K. betting house to predict President Donald Trump would likely either be impeached or resign – or both – before the upstart politician’s first term in the White House officially comes to an end in 2020, according to a new report. The odds for an impeachment to happen were given a 4/5 chance of happening as of Friday, according to Inverse, a website that describes itself in part by asking “ What could happen next? ”

Or will it be Bill O’Reilly?

Months after lamenting his status as a “target,” we are learning that O’Reilly was speaking from deep experience. The New York Times reported on Saturday that about $13 million has been dished out over the years — by O’Reilly and his employer — to resolve complaints from women regarding O’Reilly’s antics. The claims shed light on just why O’Reilly and his former boss Ailes fashioned a mutual protection racket on the premises of Fox News: They both needed someone who’d have their back.

Both are “awful, awful” people, both are on the record saying “awful, awful” things, and we’ve known how “awful, awful” they are for decades. So on the one hand they’ve survived their disgraceful reputations for a long time, and in fact have prospered because of their publicly unpleasant personas; on the other, well, we all wish these odious human beings would just go away.

If they do experience a downfall, the one I wish most would get splattered fast is Trump, because his reign is the most acutely disastrous for the country. If I were putting money on it, though, I’d have to guess that O’Reilly will be shown the door first, just because the eviction of Roger Ailes set a precedent.

I would not bet on whether either will suffer the consequences they deserve. You know there’s a soft landing planned for both, with plenty of money and luxury.


  1. says

    Trump, because there’s a good chance the Democrats take over the House in 2018. I don’t know if he’ll resign if he’s impeached, but it would make his reelection almost impossible.

    Bill O’Riley still brings in the ratings for Fox, and his audience is too sexist to care about the settlements.

  2. birgerjohansson says

    “about $13 million”

    …That’s A HUNDRED MILLION in Swedish currency.

    It would have been cheaper for Fox if Ailes had given Bill a card with unlimited credit, to buy sex from callgirls or rentboys or domesticated animals or whatever.
    But I suspect part of what turns these douchebags on is the power they can exert over lower-ranking women.

  3. says

    Trump, but mostly because he didn’t want the job in the first place. Eventually, the scandals will come to enough of a head that he’ll be put in the position of having to either break away completely from his business “empire” or step away from the presidency. He’ll pick to keep his little pyramid scheme of bankruptcies, and then resign after declaring victory. Probably something along the lines of “My goal was to shake up Washington, and we have been victorious on that front.”

    Then he’ll probably claim to be the first president to ever willingly resign, and call any comments about Nixon fake history.

  4. says

    Yashar Ali has been saying for the past few days that even more is coming out on O’Reilly, the Murdoch sons have reached the end of their rope, and he’ll be fired soon. He’s now made it his pinned tweet: “Bill O’Reilly is toast. Count on it. Over. Done. Finished.”

    (In related news, the former Fox CFO, who likely knows everything, was offered immunity last week in the investigation into Ailes payouts allegedly hidden from investors.)

  5. says

    Probably something along the lines of “My goal was to shake up Washington, and we have been victorious on that front.”

    That sounds exactly like something he would say. The man isn’t capable of admitting being wrong.

  6. robro says

    I figure BO is the first to go because he can just be canned…although I’m sure it will be positioned as he wants to “pursue new opportunities.” He’s more vulnerable now that Ailes is gone. In addition, he’s getting old (67) and media conglomerates are always looking for fresh faces.

    However, are Ailes and BO the only “awful, awful” people in Fox world? Two prominent rotten tomatoes suggests a systemic problem. Who else has been swimming in that cesspool. Where are the Murdoch’s in this “awful, awful” equation?

    Trump is harder to dislodge. I figure if the Democrats get a majority in 2018, there’s a slim chance for impeachment. If not, then we’ll see where things are at in 2020. However, TweeterDumb managed to get elected in the first place despite weak poll numbers and tons of creepy scandals. I wouldn’t count him or the Republicans out.

  7. slithey tove (twas brillig (stevem)) says

    45 will relish ORLY getting thrown under the bus to deflect the bullets aimed at 45 The GOP will shield 45 to prevent splash damage. FOX has found 45 is their biggest shill. Worth far more than BillO They will sacrifice BO to protect their new WH advocate with all his Twitter farts advertising their so-called “news”

  8. lotharloo says


    Wow the thread on Billo is nuasiating.

    [Bill Oriely] then started he was going to Italy to meet the Pope, that his pregnant wife was staying home with his daughter, and implied he was looking forward to some extra-marital dalliances with “hot” Italian women.

    Yes all that and more from Mr Christian family values.

  9. birgerjohansson says

    45 is their biggest shill.

    “Marinus van der Lubbe, please report to the White Houuse!”

  10. slithey tove (twas brillig (stevem)) says

    re @9:
    let me reconsider. oh sheet.
    45 was put in place by Fox Network to be their advertising voice and is thus their sacrificial lamb as an key distraction from all the scum in Fox. All 45 has twitted is ad campaigns for Fox programs and always denigrating valid news outlets.
    Fox has a long history of satire, (Simpsons, Family Guy, etc), each throws in occasional digs at Fox, as a form of camouflage. “Fair and balanced” was their sly method of saying “satire” with tongue firmly in cheek, whispering “so to speak *wink* *wink*”
    Fox was the only network that strongly opined FOR 45*, to reap ad dollars by shilling him.
    45* is Fox’s buffoon, put in office to bring in their audience to worship 45 or rail against him.
    Fox knows 45 is controversial, to bring in bigger audiences.
    Fox only cares about money and 45’s struggles make profitable TV.
    Putin, too, is just Fox’s distraction from their machinations. ‘Putin spice’ for the tasty stew they be brewin’.
    Murdoch is the mastermind. Seeking a way to ruin everything, as people will cling to his network as the only “independent” source of information. He knows the best way to get people to swallow propaganda is to ruin their lives, making them desperate to cling to anyone who “sounds” fair.

    TL:DR: 45 is Fox’s sacrificial lamb to deflect damage from Fox stars like Billy ORLY.

  11. says

    When O’Reilly goes, just remember that he’s been grooming his replacement: smarmy asshole Jesse Watters.

    And when Trump goes, it’s Pence.

    We can’t win.

  12. kupo says

    ‘Antics.’ That’s an interesting way to phrase abuse, harassment, and creating an unsafe work environment.

  13. Pierce R. Butler says

    robro @ # 8: … if the Democrats get a majority in 2018, there’s a slim chance for impeachment.

    Keep telling yourself that, and try not to remember what that shit Pelosi did(n’t do) in ’07.

  14. Pierce R. Butler says

    PZ Myers @ # 16: And when Trump goes, it’s Pence.

    Things seem too unstable to make firm predictions – e.g., the more of Pence’s involvement with The Russian Connection® and its coverup comes out, the less likely his “out of the loop” defense could succeed.

    And Paul Ryan seems likely to get a good look at the underside of a bus before anyone serves papers at 1600 Penn Ave, so figuring out who’s in line after Pence depends on the results of the post-Ryan House GOP brawl.

    Wouldn’t it be the perfect irony for the upshot of all this to be President Cathy McMorris Rodgers? :-p

  15. fusilier says

    A point to remember: even were 45 to be impeached, that does not mean he would be convicted in the Senate.

    Two steps, people, two steps.

    Pierce R. Butler @19: Pence is squeaky-clean from any sort of personal-corruption perspective. He’s all the things that 45 is not. A leaping, screaming, flaming, gaping, self-righteous asshole to be sure, but scandal free.

    fusilier, who had John Gregg signs in his front yard in both ’12 and ’16.
    James 2:24

  16. Pierce R. Butler says

    fusilier @ # 21: Pence is squeaky-clean from any sort of personal-corruption perspective.

    That may have been so, before he signed up with the Trump Gang. He seems to have lain down with whole packs of flea-ridden curs since July, 2016.

  17. unclefrogy says

    wow, who would have thought that this would ever be a subject seriously considered.
    I have all ways thought there was a similarity between Palin and Trump in that they are niether one what you would call deep thinkers and both not noted for being what might be called workaholics. The job of president as governor are noted for being one of very long days the president being virtually 24/7. and at best a kind of herding cats kind of politics. his history is one of numerous failures which he has always claims as victory’s.
    He may quit claiming health reasons and a victim of a witch hunt.

    Celebrity wind bags come and go at the whim of the times they are very far from indispensable to anyone and can be dropped at will for good or ill. BO should take heed, as anyone else who fits that profile. it is not a question of if it is one of when.
    history is not partial. scandal is always interesting.
    uncle frogy

  18. Kreator says

    timgueguen @#23:

    I found myself wondering the other day whether we could see three Presidents in one year.

    You could, but you still wouldn’t beat my country’s record of five in ten days.

  19. frankb says

    I just got a plea from Herman Cain to join his fan club on facebook. Of course my reply won’t get past moderation. But even he is sitting up and taking notice. He is thinking “If the clowns are winning, why not me?”

  20. tacitus says

    Trump isn’t going anywhere unless indisputable evidence for something close to treason or some other capital crime is uncovered.

    Pre-2018, the political cost to the GOP would be grievous, since it would spark a massive backlash from the Trump supporters who will see it as the ultimate betrayal. His approval rating might crater down to 25%, but that 25% could wreak havoc among the GOP incumbents.

    Post-2018, if the Democrats gain control of the House, the calculation will be whether you want to keep the country in the hands of a wounded ineffective President Trump or place them in the hands of the right-wing ideologue (and more effective) President Pence, not to mention who better to face in 2020. The Democrats will probably feel that stonewalling Trump’s agenda will be less of a risk than unleashing Pence on the nation.

  21. unclefrogy says

    I am not so sure that the majority of the country could actually tolerate a Pence as POTUS it might be a little too far to the right and with a smaller margin in congress not much would go through.
    uncle frogy

  22. KG says

    I agree with tactius@31. Except that I’m not sure even a signed letter from Trump promising to obey Putin in all things would persuade the Republicans to impeach him. It would just be dismissed as “fake news”. And of course EMAILS! BENGHAZI!

  23. says

    A question from someone not living in the US:
    Does the US have any way to safely dissolve its own government and trigger new elections?
    I know that here in Germany we have this. Its a formalized process and in the end the government and parliament gets dissolved and new elections are held.
    Its even happend in 2003. The then current chancellor Schröder hat no longer the trust of the parliament. His government and the parliament was dissolved and a new parliament was elected, which then put now chancellor Merkel into office.

    But as far as i can discern, there is no similar process in the US, only the resignation of the president without new elections. Or did i miss something?

  24. Nerd of Redhead, Dances OM Trolls says


    A question from someone not living in the US:
    Does the US have any way to safely dissolve its own government and trigger new elections?

    No, the US doesn’t run on the parliamentary system where a “no confidence” vote can bring down a government, often with new elections.
    Congress and the President are elected for fixed terms per the US Constitution.

  25. Saad says

    Trump will see out his full four years. And depending on who runs against him, possibly eight.

  26. tacitus says

    But as far as i can discern, there is no similar process in the US, only the resignation of the president without new elections. Or did i miss something?

    You are correct. There are 15 identified individuals in the presidential line of succession, though a couple of them are ineligible:

    And even if they exhaust that list, they will continue down the seniority list until they have one. No elections until the fixed term is up.