The good news:
The bad news:
The confusing news:
No one knows what the heck is going on, because internet access has been curtailed, tanks are in the streets, jets are streaking over Ankara, Erdogan is simultaneously in control and rebuffing the attempted mutiny and fleeing the country in a private jet.
Oh, wait. I was wrong. None of this is good news.
PZ Myers says
And now I hear that Erdogan is requesting asylum in Germany.
I don’t know what’s going on at all.
Joe Baker says
He was denied and is headed to London.
Obviously there’s very little out there at the moment but either side winning is better than an stalemate.
Siobhan says
Shortly before the coup was launched, Erdogan banned all members of the military from playing Pokemon Go.
Coincidence? I think not.
Definitely the sign of someone who’s defeating a coup.
komarov says
No, whatever happens this will not end well. The BBC live ticker has some initial reports of military assets clashing. Apparently ‘rebel helicopters’ are being taken on by jet aircraft, with one downed already. There was also a report of a helicpoter firing on a police HQ, with 17 casualties.
There are also numerous reports of military vehicles throughout Ankara and I have to keep asking myself, ‘which military?’ I just hope noone is stupid enough to start a fully militarised firefight in a populated area. Or – by preference – at all.
The BBC doesn’t mention anything about Erdogan heading anywhere though.
PZ Myers says
Now the word is that the coup has been rebuffed.
pipefighter says
My understanding is that turkey has a history of this sort of thing, whenever someone moves too far from their secular constitution it doesn’t end well. I hope it ends quickly.
Nightjar says
I hear that Erdogan has landed in Tehran.
Joe Baker says
“The BBC doesn’t mention anything about Erdogan heading anywhere though.”
“I hear that Erdogan has landed in Tehran.”
It’s a mess right now, I’ve seen reports he was in country and fled, reports he was out of country and just chose not to return at the moment and all kinds reports are where he is and headed. Chaos.
Vivec says
I’m not going to jump to believe a member of Erdogan’s government on the matter. From what I’m hearing from within Turkey, the Military is still just as entrenched as earlier.
SC (Salty Current) says
According to Sputnik (an interesting article from March), the governor of Istanbul is claiming the coup has been rebuffed and the coupists arrested.
Seems to be increasingly violent. Doesn’t seem to have the support of the political parties. Unsure what to believe, though.
pipefighter says
I doubt we’ll get anything concrete for at least a day.
komarov says
Indeed. Now the BBC is passing on reports that people are streaming to the Ankara Airport to ‘greet their president’.
As for the the coup being rebuffed, there was a statement from a special forces chief that could be read either way – they (the government) won, they’re going to win.
Oh, and naturally my initial hopes were dashed the very moment I posted them. Apparently military occupying one of the bridges in Istanbul opened fire on civilians there. Nothing confirmed but this sort of news report never improves with time.
SC (Salty Current) says
Erdogan is now tweeting. In English.
SC (Salty Current) says
That was according to MSNBC – I can’t find it.
Vivec says
Where are you seeing that? I’m on his official twitter and the last english tweet seems to be about the Nice France thing.
Nightjar says
I’m now hearing that his plane is heading to Istanbul.
I just have no idea. Whatever happens, I hope those civilians facing the military tanks come out okay.
komarov says
Yes, sorry, Istanbul Airport. I’m really not helping with the confusion, am I?
pipefighter says
I’m honestly not sure how to feel about this(the coup part, not the violence against civilians part, that one is obviously bad). There are a lot of good reasons not to like Erdogan or the akp but that doesn’t change the fact that he was elected by the people(i know nothing of turkeys electoral system). And despite their history of coups that go back to democracy I wouldn’t necessarily trust them now(plus why is it okay for the military to always have that hanging over the governments heads).
SC (Salty Current) says
As I said, I didn’t see it. Chris Hayes read aloud a tweet. Perhaps he was saying it was the English translation, but the strange thing is that I can’t find the tweet at all on Erdogan’s twitter using Google translate. No idea what that was about.
gijoel says
I’m starting to hate this year. Interesting times indeed.
Joe Baker says
Claims the coup is defeated coexisting with reports the coup plotters still taking over various TV and Radio stations.
GiantPanda says
German media reports Erdogan has just landed in Istanbul.
Vivec says
Apparently CNN Turkey is having its anchors escorted off by soldiers on air, Parliamentarians are hiding in shelters within the building, and two explosions sounded in Taksim square.
Vivec says
Now eyewitnesses are saying the two explosions were sonic booms from government jets.
pipefighter says
@vivec did CNN have 3D graphics showing the take over?
Lofty says
In hindsight, this year will seem like a golden year compared to what’s coming.
taraskan says
That it seems to have failed is certainly the more horrible news.
Turkey’s conception of right- and left-politics is drawn from different stuff than what you typically find in the West. The military was instrumental in the formation of a secular parliament. Consequently clerics have always sought support among the liberals. When the clerics’ agenda turned toward an isolationist response to ISIS, and antagonizing regional Kurds (who are socialist), many liberals were disillusioned, apparently enough so that Erdogan’s detractors decided it was a good time to make a move.
Erdogan has been increasingly authoritarian in his policies on his own citizens for many years, and was long thought politically untouchable because of his ties to the clergy. He is considered a consummate politician with no real agenda, who will court favor with whoever gets him the political clout to get away with imposing political imprisonment and censorship. His actions are the central reason Turkey’s application to the EU has been consistently rejected out of hand.
Because I believe a military coup in Turkey would not have dissolved the parliament, I think they’d be in a far better place had it succeeded and Erdogan been deposed. That his first thought was to flee outside the country suggests how weak he feels his position really is. He is truly the despot who fears his people.
Vivec says
@25
No idea, combo of Reuters and ppl texting me.
SC (Salty Current) says
I think it was a CNN joke.
SC (Salty Current) says
When I woke this morning I wouldn’t have predicted that Saylorsburg, PA, would be a factor in global news.
F.O. says
PZ, there is no good news whatsoever.
Erdogan is an authoritarian evil little despot, but he HAS BEEN DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED.
Violence is no way to change things.
If anything, the coup will make him stronger.
taraskan says
@31 No he was absolutely not democratically elected. The 2015 elections were conclusively rigged, and scare tactics were used. Nobody who was following Erdogan’s antics over his last term could conclude he had the will of the people on his side. I’m sure the throngs of protestors and political prisoners are doing a fine job changing the status quo, or they would be if they weren’t continually dispersed and imprisoned with the tacit approval of the US, in order not to upset our own military presence there. Oops.
When someone uses a democratic process to become untouchable, and then rigs the system to their benefit, you need an outside force. Not all coups are excessively violent. There’s been two coups a decade in Thailand and they rarely generate massive casualties or last more than a week (I’m not advocating their coups, the last one imposed a ridiculous dictator of Niyazovian stature, but that’s beside the point).
A coup was necessary. It couldn’t possibly make him stronger – he was already strong enough to rebuff it – but it might at the very least finally sour relations with the US and the EU. That is the good we have to look to come of this, now.
Vivec says
@31
I disagree, if a despot is willing to fix elections and disappear political rivals and dissenters, there is a point where you can’t just vote yourself out of it.
North Korea and Kazakhstan’s leaders are both “democratically elected”, but somehow seem to always win and run unopposed in elections that don’t pass international muster. Coincidentally, there’s a huge amount of controversy about electoral and voter fraud in reference to the elections Erdogan supposedly won.
I will agree that the coup will probably make him stronger, but only because the coup didn’t make like Vlad Tepes and carry him out on a spike.
vucodlak says
@ F.O., #31
In the United States, we may well democratically elect a raving, ultra-bigoted fascist to the presidency in November.
If he tries to order the military to commit genocide, or any of the other heinous crimes he’s promised to commit if elected, and they instead remove him from the oval office at gunpoint, I’ll throw a fucking party.
A democratically elected leader who breaks their oath to uphold the laws of their nation (which is exactly what Erdogan has been doing, if I understand correctly) should be removed from power. It might be better if it happens through the courts, but that isn’t always an option. Sometimes violence is the least bad of a lot of terrible options.
F.O. says
Uhm, no, people actually voted for him.
The media campaign was badly biased, but still won him popular support.
I have been to Istanbul. Even there, many women had took again the headscarf not as a matter of religiosity, but as a statement of support for the conservative party.
Read the local news.
This is a coup, not a revolution.
The coup failed due to popular insurgence against it.
They didn’t have the support from the people.
Erdogan can now claim moral high ground, popular support and a vindication of his paranoia.
Akira MacKenzie says
Tarascan @ 27
Hmmmm… Erdogan sounds kinda familiar.
Vivec says
The difference is immaterial to me. If either had ousted Erdogan, I’d have popped a bottle of bubbly all the same.
Except he has demonstrably resorted to voter fraud in both past and recent elections.
Frankly, even if he was legitimately voted in, I’m not of the opinion that the rule of law is something so sacrosanct you have to tolerate a totalitarian dictator-in-all-but-name jailing and assassinating people he doesn’t like.
left0ver1under says
pipefighter (#6) –
Istanbul is constant in overthrow?
F.O. says
@Vivec: How very American of you, liking democracy only so long as people elect those you like.
Let’s export democracy!! YEEEEHAAAAW!!!
The difference between a coup and a revolution is the popular support, and while you are so cavalier about the difference, it is a very, very important difference.
The current coup failed because it wasn’t backed by the general population.
After the riots in Taksim square, after all the authoritarian shit Erdogan has done, you’d expect the Turkish population to seize the opportunity and rise in rage against Erdogan, but they didn’t.
This is crucial.
Maybe they know something you don’t. You should respect that.
Vivec says
Given that me and my family are among them, I must have missed the memo.
Also, no, I don’t consider rigged elections (which Erdogan’s demonstrably were) democratic in any meaningful sense, and if your definition of that term means protecting the validity of a “democratically elected” tyrant like Kim Jong Un or Erdogan, I spit on it happily and in whatever way you consider most offensive.
The only bad thing about today’s events is that innocents died while Erdogan gets to keep on breathing.
Beatrice, an amateur cynic looking for a happy thought says
Yeah, I’m not exactly going to cheer on Erdogan or unquestioningly believe the “official” news.
Coups and revolutions are bloody and can leave the country with worse leadership than before. Then again, if leadership perverts and corrupts the democratic process to the point where it’s virtually impossible to throw them off their throne… what then? Just suck it up?
Considering the coup was a thing that happened, in a situation like that I would be happier if it had succeeded.
robertbaden says
Democratically elected Governor George Wallace — Segregation today, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever.
robertbaden says
And more recent have been the various ballot initiatives defining marriage that have been passed.
Beatrice, an amateur cynic looking for a happy thought says
robertbaden,
re. marriage definition
I think there are two separate questions:
1. whether human rights can and should be determined by democratic process – like referendums where the majority of population votes to curb the rights of a minority, for example
2. how to take on a government elected by democratic process that is violating human rights – a government was elected, but is committing violations of human rights that the citizens oppose
Beatrice, an amateur cynic looking for a happy thought says
F.O.
It’s crucial that when tanks occupied the streets, people didn’t join them?
See, this is why I want to hear more news from Turkey and I don’t mean government officials. How was the coup organized? Did people have any idea “whose” the army on their streets was and whether it was going to start killing them?
I mean, I would expect US people to rise against the possibility of Trump presidency by going out to vote. Not to start a revolution or burn the streets, just get out of their comfy chairs and vote. And yet…. the turnout won’t even be 60%. Never underestimate people’s inertia.
So because people haven’t reached the tipping point of joining a coup, that necessarily must mean they’re ok with the current government? Yeah, no.
Zeppelin says
“How very American of you, liking democracy only so long as people elect those you like.”
That wasn’t directed at me, and I’m not American, but I’ll butt in anyway: Democracy is a means to an end, not a good in itself. I support democracy because it generally gives better results than other systems of government we’ve tried. That doesn’t mean I have to support the results of a democratic process in every specific situation — it’s possible to democratically make objectively terrible decisions, and no-one is obliged to pretend they’re not relieved when those terrible decisions are overruled. You don’t have to put your ethics up to a majority vote.
And all that is presuming that Erdogan’s shitty government deserves the title “democratic” to begin with.
sigaba says
@F.O.
Uh, sorta. But then again, authoritarian evil little despots generally hold a democratic mandate. Evil authoritarians love elections, referenda and plebiscites — one man, one vote, one time. (Mind the Brexit.)
Ichthyic says
Tyranny of the majority.
Maybe John Stuart Mill knew something you don’t. you should respect that.
Ichthyic says
sorry, gotta godwin that.
Ichthyic says
…and overturned. See RE: Proposition 8, California.
Ichthyic says
In fact, looking at the abuse of the referendum process in CA, and using proposition 8 as a perfect example of that, is a good exercise for those who *think* they understand what democracy means.
direct democracy only works well with an effectively omniscient public.
it’s the very REASON most western democracies are actually representative republics.
Nick Gotts says
Ichthyic@49,
Hitler was not democratically elected. He was brought to power by backstairs manouvering by Papen, Hugenberg and various business interests, despite having nowhere near majority support. Once in office, he used its powers, and the Reichstag fire, to bring in a state of emergency to suppress the KPD, but still failed to win a majority in the elections of March 1933. The Catholic Centre Party, at the urging of the Vatican, then gave him the 2/3 majority he needed in the Reichstag to pass the Enabling Act making him dictator.
In general, yes there are cases where overthrowing an elected leader* by military force could be justified, but it should be a last resort. Armies are very seldom devoted to democracy and social justice.
Er, no. The reasons for that are historical – and while it may sometimes prevent the tyranny of the majority, it does also allow ruling elites considerably more room for manouevre.
*Yes, the November 2015 elections were undoubtedly unfair, and there was probably some outright fraud, but there’s no doubt Erdogan’s party does enjoy very considerable popular support – far more than any other.
Nick Gotts says
Reposted from MoPMs:
I would add to that, that both the HDP and the other parties represented in the Turkish Parliament seem to have denounced the coup attempt, even before it was clear it had failed.
Nick Gotts says
@53, The first paragraph in the reported comment is Vivec’s – I forgot to restore the blockquoting.
rietpluim says
People keep confusing “democracy” with “elections”. Elections are just a way to force a decision. The outcome may be either democratic or undemocratic. If the people elect a dictator, he is still a dictator. End of democracy.
Now old fashioned dictators like Stalin and Mao are getting scarce. Modern ones like Erdogan, Putin, and to some extent Berlusconi, are a lot smarter. They manipulate the people instead of oppressing them. They only oppress minorities that were impopular already (like homosexuals in Russia) which is part of the manipulation of the majority (creating scapegoats).
At least, that’s how they start. In the end, they slip off into good ol’ oppression again. Putin is already there. Erdogan is close.
And in Turkey, the military has always been the defender of secular democracy.
Beatrice, an amateur cynic looking for a happy thought says
Great. Were the judges on it too? Or is this just a nice opportunity to place more desirable people in their offices.
Justice and DEvelopment:
source
Vivec says
Gotcha, let Erdogan rape my motherland and don’t get too frisky because Egypt.
I’ll pass, thanks.
Hopefully, the following crackdown will lead to coup 2.0, ideally with a little more success in removing Erdogan.
Ice Swimmer says
Beatrice @56
The failed coup will give Erdogan and AKP the pretext for extensive purges and reinstatement of death penalty. We’ll see if he’ll go all Stalin.
Ice Swimmer says
Vivec @ 57
I also hope that Erdogan will fail and end up in prison for the rest of his life. How can he be ousted without a Turkish civil war? (Not a rhetorical question or JAQuing off.)
Beatrice, an amateur cynic looking for a happy thought says
Ice Swimmer,
Yeah, I’m already reading speculation about death penalty in the news. And I’m awfully suspicious of the sudden rise in the death toll of the coup, which consists almost entirely of soldiers. Or is this entering conspiracy theory territory?
Beatrice, an amateur cynic looking for a happy thought says
I mean that the difference in numbers between this morning and now seems to consist almost entirely of soldier. Unfortunately, there were many civilian casualties as well.
F.O. says
I am not saying that overthrowing a government is wrong.
Had the population supported the coup, I’d been all for it.
But it didn’t.
@Vivec: you have any resource I can read about rigging the elections?
Nick Gotts says
Vivec@57,
Stop putting words in my mouth – it just shows that you are unable to argue your case honestly. Opponents of Erdogan need to undertake the difficult and dangerous task of building a convincing political alternative, not expect salvation from the army – which will of course act in the perceived interests of its leaders. It is quite clear the coup attempt did not have popular support, nor support from any significant political party opposed to Erdogan. But for some unstated reason, we’re supposed to accept your assessment of its merits.
Hilarious. Turkish coup of 1960, orchestrated by 0the fascist, Alparslan Türkeş. And the Turkish coup of 1971, as a result of which:
And the Turkish coup of 1980, as a result of which:
Would you like to tell us how exactly these coups constituted defence of secular democracy?
Nick Gotts says
Interesting. This from the BBC:
Fetullah Gulen, who Turkey blames for the failed coup, lives in the US. Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said any country that will “stand by” Mr Gulen “won’t be a friend of Turkey and will be considered at war with Turkey”.
What’s now being reported is that Turkey is shutting off access to Incirlik – and so stopping the US jets conducting sorties against IS.
The BBC also conveys a report from the state news agency Anadolu which says a joint statement on behalf of all of the main parties in Turkey will be read out soon. But of course this won’t have any real significance, since Vivec was not consulted.
Nick Gotts says
Sorry – failure to close link @64.
Vivec says
My case is get Erdogan out of office by any means necessary, and if you disagree, I don’t really give a shit.
I’d rather my home cease to exist than become some islamist dictatorship under a ~Democratically Elected~ eternal president.
lotharloo says
Turkey is fucked. Erdogan will now have much more power than before. And mass arrests are already happening:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36813924
I’m sure the arrests of thousands of people are all based on hard evidence gathered in a matter of few hours…
rietpluim says
@Nick Gotts – I’ll rephrase that: the military has always considered itself the defender of secular democracy.
sigaba says
@52
It’s true but it’s more complicated than that. Hitler failed to meet the standard in the Weimar constitution required to form a government — he could not get a majority of the Reichstag to join in coalition with his party, the Nazis. On the other hand, he did hold the plurality of votes in the Reichstag and his party received the plurality in the last elections — by the standards of American democracy he “won.” He was appointed by Hindenburg, but at the same time there was no one else who was viable, and the Weimar constitution provided for no mechanism to establish a government in the situation they were in, but it did actually allow Hindenburg to legally appoint Hitler under emergency powers. Hitler didn’t “win his election” but the appointment of any other person in Germany instead of him would have been less democratic, he held the biggest democratic mandate of any politician in Germany except for Hindenburg.
The median voter probably just wanted Hindenburg to declare martial law and take the job himself, but if we exclude that option, the median voter probably wanted a socialist or a member of the Centre party. But those parties refused to coalesce, because they saw more advantage in being outside a government led by their closest rivals than inside it. If you’re a communist and you hate the socialists, it’s better to watch the socialists try to run things and then blow up, because then many of their voters may switch to you. You’re much more neutral about the Nazis, because their voters are out of your reach and won’t shift to you regardless of how badly the Nazis run things.
Anyways this is why you can’t take elections at face value and you always have to take into account the process and institutions involved — people vote in the context of political elites “packaging” and negotiating the various alternatives, and Turkey is no different. And this is before you throw vote rigging and corruption into the mix.
@rietpluim
Militaries defend democracy in the same way a .38 to the head cures brain cancer. The whole point of government is to resolve disputes without people having to point guns at each other or strangle viceroys in their bedchambers. Democracy cannot be delivered from the barrel of a gun, this is a sound principle when America does it in Vietnam or Iraq, and just as sound a principle when Kemalists do it to their own countrymen.
SC (Salty Current) says
I’ve finally found some news about the PKK. Here’s the statement by the KCK:
Beatrice, an amateur cynic looking for a happy thought says
Now masses are baying for the blood of those that staged the coup.
Nice.
KG says
Ah, I see your problem: you think your desire for something to happen is a rational argument that it should (i.e., a case for it). But then if you had a rational argument, you wouldn’t need to put words in my mouth.
KG says
@72,
For personal reasons, I’m reverting to the nym I used at Pharyngula some years ago – KG. I should stress this is not because of any threat to my safety or that of others. – Nick Gotts
KG says
Actually that wasn’t the Communist (KPD) line: they did not regard Nazi voters as out of their reach at all. Stalin had indeed decreed that the socialists (SPD) were “social fascists”, and the primary enemy, but his and the KPD’s expectation was that the Nazis’ rise to power was merely the preliminary to the masses – including working class Nazi voters – realising where their true interests lay, and switching support to the KPD, who would then lead the revolution:
1. Attack the SPD, dividing the left.
2. Thus let the Nazis come to power.
3. ???
4. Proletarian revolution!
Vivec says
I’m not interested in convincing you to my side, seeing as neither of us are in any position to actually affect whether or not Erdogan is deposed.
As long as he gets out of office, whether through ludicrously unlikely democratic means, military coup, resignation, popular revolt, or just one lone guy with a gun, I’m going to celebrate all the same.
SC (Salty Current) says
Here’s another article arguing along the same lines:
I still suspect international shenanigans, but won’t bother speculating based on so little information.
KG says
Reportedly, Erdogan himself has now demanded that the USA extradite Fetullah Gulen, whom he blames for the coup. Making such demands of the global hegemon may turn out to be unwise. Certainly, whether there’s any evidence that Gulen was involved or not, I can’t see the Americans agreeing.
KG says
SC@76,
Yes, that article seems a sound analysis. Maybe Erdogan suspects American hands in the coup attempt, given his demand for Fetullah’s extradition. He certainly has a sizeable bee in his bonnet about Fetullah.
sigaba says
KG@74
Yeah. I was going to add something about the Communists always wanting to “heighten the contradictions” and they really didn’t want to win the chancellorship anyways, but the comment was getting too damn long. FWIW, the SPD also took a hard anticommunist line and swore that “Red equals brown” just as often as the KPD threw around “social fascism.” Naturally the SPD and KPD totally forgot about their deep-rooted animosity once the enabling acts were passed and everyone was hot about a united front again, including Stalin. The whole thing was just electoral tactics and propaganda.
garydargan says
Notice how all those Turkish citizens stood their ground against tanks and there were no assault rifle wielding gun-fondlers among them. Sure people were shot. About as many as die in 2 weeks worth of shootings by good guys with guns in the US. I can only conclude that Turks are courageous patriots while American gun-fondlers are a bunch of paranoid wimps.
taraskan says
Regarding the military as an instrument of change. All non-democratic political change comes about through the use of force, real or perceived. All force is militant. A military is called a coup, while a militia is called a revolution. They are two sides of the same coin. It is silly to accept revolution as a force for good in 1840s Germany, 1770s America, etc., but reject establishment coups that none the less ousted something worse than themselves.
Regarding the PKK. The PKK is a relatively minor thorn in Turkey’s side, but has been getting the brunt of the abuse in the Turkish media mainly due to racism. What would benefit the Kurds most is the West disinfranchising Turkey to pick these battles, and I am in favor of whatever achieves that the most expediently. Deposing Erdogan OR severing ties with his government accomplish this in much the same manner. I believe a successful coup (or revoltuion if the citiznry were so inclined) would have better benefited Turks, but it would have been much the same for Kurds either way. As far as why the citizenry does not rebel, you have to understand Erdogan has always postured as a liberal. Liberals are disillusioned at this stage, but they are not about to be driven to revolution. Any force for change is going to be establishment, but not executive, and enter the military in a country with a history of the military affecting this very thing. I remain appalled the PKK is still considered a terrorist group by the US, and aid was only given to the YPJ and YPG in the fight against ISIS after they claimed to have severed ties with the PKK. The PKK remains their parent group – they are all the same organization. If the US did not have a love affair with the conception of a peaceful Turkey that allowed military bases in the region, regardless of the cost, then the principal and to date most successful combatants against ISIS would have been endorsed long ago.
Erdogan has in this way directly influenced US policy, and this is unacceptable. Either repel him or renounce him, now.
KG says
Further signs Erdogan’s response to the attempted coup is causing friction with the USA:
It would be political dynamite if Erdogan could actually produce evidence of Gulen’s involvement, let alone that of the US itself, but I very much doubt that he can. The Obama administration certainly finds Erdogan difficult to work with – or perhaps that should be “control” – but a coup would be a hugely risky response. Not Obama’s style, nor Kerry’s, I’d have said.
KG says
sigaba@79,
True, and the split went right back to the immediate aftermath of WW1, and had its roots even earlier, in the failure of the SPD – like the corresponding parties in France and Britain – to oppose that war. I detect faint echoes of that historic calamity in the looming split in the UK Labour Party, which has roots in the disastrous decision of most Labour MPs to follow Blair to war in 2003.
KG says
taraskan@81,
A very dubious claim. It can come about through the collapse of self-confidence in the ruling elite (as in the Soviet satellite states in 1989, Greece in 1974), or its decision to change its approach to exercising power (Spain after Franco, various African states introducing pluralist politics in recent decades in place of post-colonial dictatorships). Of course you might say there’s always the perception of possible force, but that makes your claim trivial, since that possibility is always present in any society at any time.
And I don’t think I or anyone else has done that: the questions are whether the attempted coup in Turkey would have done so, and whether there are better alternatives. Given the past record of Turkish coups, and the recent Egyptian coups, both of which I’ve brought in evidence; and the continued existence of space to build a political alternative in Turkey – despite silly comparisons with North Korea – I don’t believe so.
Ichthyic says
er, YES. you evidently have entirely forgotten american history, if you ever even knew it.
read Jefferson.
Ichthyic says
right… because they didn’t recently see yet another example of the Islamic Brotherhood getting ousted by a military coup in Egypt.
also:
you really don’t understand why I used the Nazi Party as an example.
I don’t know why anybody ever bothers with you.
Ichthyic says
@Sigaba:
someone fucking gets it.
thankyou.
SC (Salty Current) says
And at the same time they seem to be leaning toward Russia. I laughed out loud yesterday when I read this article in which Ankara’s mayor pins the blame for shooting down the Russian jet last November on the coupists:
Meanwhile, Manbij hangs in the balance. I don’t know what’s going to happen there, and don’t see any positive outcome for the Kurds/Rojava. The US government doesn’t care at all about them, or any of the people of Syria, and will betray and abandon them without a moment’s hesitation.
SC (Salty Current) says
It happens that I’m reading Robert G. L. Waite’s Vanguard of Nazism: The Free Corps Movement in Postwar Germany 1918-1923,* and specifically the section on the aftermath of the Kapp Putsch when the government was faced with a Communist uprising it had encouraged by calling a general strike to oppose the putsch:
* I would absolutely recommend it, which is surprising since it was published in 1952. So many books from this era in the US are so swamped by ideology that they’re essentially unreadable as history (if useful as source documents for understanding Cold War culture). But this is a work of real scholarship, and very well written.
SC (Salty Current) says
The BBC and others report that 6,000 people have been arrested.
SC (Salty Current) says
(One aspect of the book I recommended above I do feel I should note, which shows it to be very much of its era in one sense, is Waite’s references to Gerhard Rossbach as a “notorious homosexual.” His views apparently didn’t change considerably over time, either – I’m reading a later edition, and he notes on page 197 that Rossbach tried to sue another author in 1961 for calling him a homosexual based on the evidence presented by Waite, but that “after his lawyers examined the evidence, Rossbach wisely decided to drop the case.” Calling him a Nazi? Fine. Calling him gay? That’s grounds for legal action. In any case, Waite seemed quite pleased with the episode. Alas.)
SC (Salty Current) says
Erdogan has stated that he’ll support reinstating the death penalty if the parliament votes for it. The EU has said this would end EU accession talks.
SC (Salty Current) says
Reports that 9,000 officials have been dismissed. (No, I don’t know why I’m linking to so many Russian sources.)
The fight for Manbij is fierce. I can’t see Erdoğan letting YPG/J (or even just heavily Kurdish) forces win this battle. So much is at stake.
John Morales says
SC, convenient for Erdoğan, no? Now he has much more legitimacy.
I’m hardly a conspiracy nut, but I am cynical — so I find it plausible that his regime knew something was up, and took advantage of it when it came, due to prior preparation.
John Morales says
PS
Perhaps coincidentally (heh), Russia and Turkey have just kissed and made up.
SC (Salty Current) says
Yes – see my #88 above. Still makes me laugh. “We’ve always loved you, darling Putin! It was those nasty, villainous coup people who’ve been trying to break us up! We couldn’t say anything before, but now the truth is out and we can’t let them tear us apart!”
SC (Salty Current) says
Erdoğan has declared a three-month state of emergency. They’ve suspended travel by academics (it’s claimed that only work-related travel has been prohibited, which would of course be bad enough, but academics are saying they’ve been told to cancel personal travel as well). University deans – I’ve read all of them – have been dismissed. Reports are that 50,000 people have been affected in the purge thus far; WaPo says an intelligence official said they believe 100,000 were involved in the putsch, so the number will continue to grow. (Incredible that 100,000 people could keep that secret, and it wouldn’t speak very highly of Turkish intelligence if they missed 100,000 people planning a coup!). The regime has also blocked access to Wikileaks after they published about 300,000 AKP emails they received earlier in the month. I don’t know what’s in them.
lotharloo says
@SC
Yes, I saw the news. Turkey is truly fucked. Erdogan is driving it towards Putin like dictatorship.