Three bad arguments

I just got back from the Texas Freethought Conference, which was excellent — lots of good speakers, great conversations, and a particularly dense day of brain fodder. In Texas! Maybe stereotypes aren’t universally true.

But I’m an atheist, and you know what that means: I’ve got to carp about my grievances. In the vast assortment of good talks, there were three bad arguments that peeved me, so I’m going to address those right here.


Oops, they got a little long and were so different from one another that I broke them into three separate posts.

Bad argument #1: The Mormon exception

Bad argument #2: No more Poes

Bad argument #3: Science says what?

Again, let me emphasize that the conference was great, but I’m just one of those obnoxious people who has to pick at the exceptions.

SciAm video whiffs it on this extinction event

Smilodon at the Page Museum at the La Brea Tar Pits

Kitty. Victim of the late-Cenozoic extinction at the Page Museum in Los Angeles.

I usually like Scientific American’s short science explainer videos, but this one — Instant Egghead – Are We Facing the Sixth Mass Extinction?” — bothers me for a few reasons.

Fred Guterl starts off by saying that we don’t know yet whether our current extinction event qualifies as a “mass extinction.” It’s a bit of a semantic question, as the threshold for what constitutes a mass extinction is debated, and some rankings put different events in the top five. But let’s just take Guterl’s statement as meaning “we don’t know whether this current extinction is as big as the really big ones we’ve had in the past.” It’s an excellent point. It’s become received wisdom among a certain crowd that we’re facing Big Dieoff 6.0, and reminders that this isn’t necessarily any worse an event than, say, the extinctions at the end of the Eocene are always good. Not that the end-Eocene extinctions were a kitten romp.

The video goes off rather quickly, though, starting with the quick “citation” of a UNEP estimate of up to 200 species extinctions per day, which seems to have been taken urban legend style from an estimate Norman Myers made in the 1970s. Myers gave the range as 50-200, and he was saying 50 in 2006. We’ve seen a lot of estimates by different biologists. In 1993 E.O. Wilson offered an estimate of 30,000 species per year going extinct, about 85 a day. It depends on what models you use, and those models are the topic of debate.

Still, that’s more an editing quibble than anything. Few maintain that species aren’t going extinct faster than is “usual” for the Cenozoic.

There are a couple other WTF moments in the video, chief among them the statement that the end-Permian extinction was caused by Siberian lava flows igniting large coal deposits, creating a atmospheric CO2 spike “on the order of what we’re seeing today.” There’s certainly lots of evidence to support the idea, but it’s not a slam dunk, and other mechanisms remain possible.

There’s also an interesting mention of passenger pigeons that goes nowhere. In the context of species extinction rate models Guterl mentions that there was a population of billions of passenger pigeons in North America for who knows how many millions of years, and yet only two fossils of the species are known. And then he drops it, not explaining the fact’s relevance. I mean, I got there, and you probably did too — it implies that for each species we know went extinct back in the day, there were likely many we don’t know of whose fossils we have not yet found. What that implies in terms of past extinction rates I’m not sure: it’scertain that species we don’t know of  went extinct and aren’t counted in the totals, but it would seem equally plausible that species we don’t know about survived the extinctions of the past, or that species we do know about that we now count as victims of mass extinctions actually survived those extinctions but left no trace for a few millon years afterward. Perhaps someone here with a better understanding of paleontology can help me out with this. In any event, it would have been nice to have Guterl finish his thought there.

My biggest problem with the video, though, is in Guterl’s suggestion that our changing the atmosphere’s composition — referring to the end-Permian extinction, as well as the “Great Oxygenation” of the Paleoproterozoic — is what’s got scientists worried about mass extinction these days, given that we happen to be adding CO2 to the atmosphere faster than the Siberian Traps did 252 million years ago. And scientists are indeed worried about the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

But scientists working on studying and preserving biodiversity — which after all is the positive way of saying “not having a mass extinction’ — are worried about a whole lot more than climate change. We could completely solve the atmospheric CO2 overburden on Tuesday and still be faced with an extinction crisis as we plow up grasslands, cut down forests, bottom-trawl the oceans, and build new sprawling cities on land that once supported wildlife.

The IUCN identifies habitat loss as the main threat to 85% of the species it lists as “Threatened” or “Endangered” on its Red List. The Red List includes 391 terrestrial plant species of all threat levels described as potentially threatened by climate change or severe weather, compared to 5,582  that may be threatened by human disruption of their habitat. The equivalent numbers for terrestrial animal species are 1,991 potentially threatened by climate change and 13,388 by habitat disruption.

There are errors inherent in the IUCN data that stem mainly from lack of resources to assess species, but the implication is clear. Climate change is thought to pose a serious threat to many species. Human-caused habitat disruption is likely a more serious threat.

One of the problems I have with the mainstream environmental movement these days is that “environmental protection” has been conflated with “climate change mitigation.” You can search environmental publications in vain for a long time for mentions of other issues. When I started editing environmentalist publications in 1992 — the year of the first Earth Summit, in Rio — public attention was about evenly divided between the importance of preserving biodiversity and the threat of climate change. You can see evidence of this in the newly revamped Google Ngram viewer, by comparing mentions of the relevant phrases in books archived by Google as a function of time:

Expressed as a percentage of text in all books in the database, “biodiversity” peaks relative to “climate change” in 1997, then actually starts to decline in 2003. “Climate change” gains the lead the year the Al Gore’s movie came out. Google’s data runs until 2008. My personal anecdata would suggest that the lead “climate change” started developing in 2006 probably grew dramatically after 2009, with biodiversity likely to catch up a little bit sometime next year due to renewed attention to the issue on the UN front.

The point is that environment has become synonymous with climate in many minds. Thinking of biodiversity as of secondary importance (at best) to climate change has resulted in proposals to stem climate change that would actually harm biodiversity. They include everything from seeding oceans with iron to cutting down rainforests for biofuel soy plantations to siting utility-scale solar plants on intact and biodiverse desert habitat when there are former alfalfa farms in the neighborhood.

By mentioning only climate change in a video that purports to address whether we’re facing a mass extinction, Scientific American helps promote this emphasis on climate change — which is obviously a huge threat — to the exclusion of the greater causes of current extinctions. Yes, it’s a video lasting less than three minutes, but one could easily mention agricultural conversion and overfishing and forest clearcutting in a short video. They aren’t complicated concepts.

By all means, SciAm should rail against climate change. SciAm should persuade people to look at their carbon footprints, to demand changes in the way we run our industrial society, and to challenge the idiots in charge who’d deny any climate problem exists. But this was supposed to be a video on the current extinction event, and you somehow failed to mention the larger causes of that extinction. That does a disservice to SciAm’s viewers — and to the science.

Hanging out in Texas

Talk among yourselves, everyone. I’m in Austin — I’m actually right in front of the Capitol steps — for the Texas Freethought Convention, after getting in after 1am last night. I just heard Aron Ra shred the religious, and Matt Dillahunty and Richard Dawkins and Sean Faircloth are coming up. It’s good to be in Texas, a phrase I’m surprised to have ever written.

It sounds like the convention is close to being sold out, so you’re too late for the afternoon/evening sessions, but we’re going to be right out her in public all morning.


Oh, look…a picketer!

20121020-131420.jpg

A Texas poll

We haven’t crashed a poll in a while — and to be honest, it’s like they’re all trending our way anyway anymore — but since I’m on my way to Texas, sure, let’s do a Texas based poll on the recent court decision that public high school cheerleaders get to flash bible messages at spectators. It’s classic Texas: football, cheerleaders, and god, but good grief, even the Texans see through it as an endorsement of religion.

The Kountze High School cheerleaders’ use of religious messages on banners at football games:

amounts to a school endorsement of religion and should be banned. 58.7%

is freedom of personal expression and not representative of the entire school 41.3%

[Lounge #375]

This is the lounge. You can discuss anything you want, but you will do it kindly. Hey, it’s another long weekend of traveling for me, but you’re all going to be extra-specially nice to one another while I’m hindered from monitoring the threads, right?

Status: Heavily Moderated; Previous thread

Minnesota mooks don’t like MOOCs

Every once in a while, some news comes down from on high that reveals that the people we’re trusting to lead don’t have a clue about what they’re doing. Now Minnesota’s Office of Higher Education has banned online courses, specifically the excellent suite of free online courses from Coursera.

We do have a law on the books that has the goal of shutting down diploma mills — you shouldn’t get to browse a website and be awarded a Ph.D. in quantum neuroscience. But Coursera doesn’t do that: they don’t issue degrees or even credits, they just provide massive open online courses for free. So you can learn stuff. For free. You don’t go there so you can pretend to learn and get a fancy diploma to hang on your wall, it’s just free information.

This ban is utterly unenforceable and absolutely ludicrous. All you Minnesotans should take your laptop or iPad into the bedroom or bathroom or someplace private, turn off the lights, and browse Coursera — I recommend the biology section, obviously. Oh, look: Rosie Redfield has a course on practical genetics. That should be good. Sign up for something.

Now feel the thrill of being an outlaw. Go commit crimes: learn something.

Hey, maybe the Minnesota OHE is trying reverse psychology on us?

How not to be a good person

OK, kids, today I’m offering a simple lesson in basic human decency. I know most of you already know all this — I picked up on it when I was a child — but this is the internet, and a few of its resident have been raised by wolves or read too much Ayn Rand as a teenager, and they’ve lost some really basic principles.

  1. When someone is hurting, don’t spit on them because someone else is hurting more. It’s smart and sensible to invest your time and money wisely, and if you see two people in pain, you get to choose which one you’ll help first, and that’s fine. But it’s counterproductive and destructive to dismiss efforts to help the other person, and it’s particularly repellent if you choose to kick at the people who are helping someone you consider a lesser cause to the extent that you aren’t helping anyone at all.

    There’s a principle in medicine called triage—look it up. It does not mean “stick a knife in the patient you don’t want to help.”

    See? This is so simple. If you see someone donating money to prostate cancer research, don’t berate them because they should donate to breast cancer research instead, because you think it’s a more serious disease. Or vice versa. Both are bad, and it’s good that we have people supporting research into both.

  2. So you’ve decided to help someone — good for you. However, you shouldn’t then advertise your goodness and throw a tantrum if people don’t praise you enough. You especially shouldn’t then retract your offer of assistance because there wasn’t enough love given to you. You aren’t the one in trouble, and the situation isn’t about you at all.

    You see, that makes it obvious to everyone that you weren’t offering to help because you’re a good person: the offer was patently a bribe to win good will for yourself, and when you announce your refusal to help you’re really just trying to extort some flattery out of others. This is not good behavior.

    I hear a version of this all the time: don’t annoy the Christians with that atheism stuff or they might retract their support for science and science education. Well then, they weren’t really good supporters of science in the first place, were they?

I know, you’re all saying that was really obvious to the point of being stupid, but there are people on the internet who don’t understand these basic concepts. Sad, I know, but don’t get cranky if I occasionally reach out to help the ethically benighted in addition to bashing creationists and that sort of thing. There are many good causes we can all fight for.

Greta Christina could use your help

UPDATE: Greta says people have responded so generously that she doesn’t need more donations. But go wish her well if you haven’t already.

Our friend and colleague Greta Christina, on the heels of losing her father, just got handed some scary bad news:

The bad news is that I was just diagnosed with endometrial cancer. I got the initial biopsy results Saturday, and met with the oncologist Tuesday.

The good news about the bad news: To the degree that there is a “good” kind of cancer, this is the good kind: well-differentiated cells, Class 1, in a body part that I have no great need of and am fine with having removed. But it’s still, you know, cancer.

Greta is one of those people who’s always looking out for other folks; since I’ve started reading her I’ve seen her lend her voice to help a number of people who are having tough times. (I was one of those people this year, dealing with misfortune not even in the same league as what’s Greta’s been handed, but she helped me anyway.)

It’s her turn now. At her blog, she spells out a few ways people can help her get through the next couple of months. But if you’re in a hurry, here’s the shortcut: you can toss her some cash you’re not using here,  or sign up for a year’s worth of monthly $5.00 donations here. PayPal links aren’t working due to session data, it would seem, but you can get there via Greta’s post.

And as long as I have the microphone in my hand, knowing that with this readership chances are high that someone else reading this is facing something similar, here’s something to read on surviving cancer that’s helped quite a few people I know when they needed some calm reason and math.