If the election were held yesterday, Nate Silver is giving Team Obama roughly an 80% chance of winning with Romney about 20%. It all depends on turnout and which way things break. Turnout is the campaigns’ problem, which way it will break, or if it breaks one way or the other at all, is totally unpredictable. But good economic news doesn’t hurt the incumbant:
Wapo— The unemployment rate rose to 7.9 percent, up from 7.8 percent, but the reason behind the uptick also points to an improved job market. Some 578,000 more Americans counted themselves as part of the labor force, and only 410,000 more people reported having a job. In one particularly welcome sign, the proportion of the population reporting that they had a job rose one-tenth of a percent to 58.8 percent. The Labor Department counts only those with jobs or looking for jobs as among the U.S. workforce.
The campaigns jumped on the numbers Friday, giving their spins on the final unemployment report before Tuesday’s election.
I’m still not all that optimistic, there ares a lot of low info voters lout there and some racism to boot. We’ll see, it’s gonna be a nailbiter with healthcare and retirement security held in the balance for millions of us, including me.