In the aftermath of Trump’s victory in November, there has been a lot of anguished analyses by Democrats and pundits as to the reasons why Kamala Harris and the Democrats did not win. These have ranged from taking comfort in the fact that although they lost the Senate, they did not lose ground in the House of Representatives to pointing out that Trump’s margin of victory in the popular vote was not that large (about 1.5%). There have been suggestions that Harris’s loss was due to young people not voting in large enough numbers, that the Hispanic vote did not support Democrats as much as they have done in the past, to women voters not turning out in sufficient numbers to compensate for losses elsewhere. These kinds of analyses have suggested that tactical changes in the campaign, such as tailoring messages more towards the groups that dropped away, may have made the difference.
These analyses rarely tend to be definitive in their conclusions and to a large extent I have not paid too much attention to them. I have been trying to understand a more basic question.
There is no question that on objective grounds Trump is terrible both as a person and as a president. I am not going to make the case for that assertion, seeing it as self-evident. His awfulness has increased with time and yet his vote totals have also increased. What has concerned me is that Trump received over 77.2 million votes in November, more than the 74.2 million he got in 2020 and much more than the 63.0 million he got in 2016. His vote as a percentage of the total population has also gone up, from 19.3% in 2016 to 22.1% in 2020, to 22.6% in 2024. This quite extraordinary.
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