Trump is heading off today to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting in Seoul, South Korea. A lot of attention is being paid to the meeting of Trump with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of that meeting because it will be held in the aftermath of the latest flareup in the tariff war war between the to countries.

I blogged two weeks ago about how China, that usually does not initiate these things, did so in this case by placing restrictions on the export of rare-earth minerals that are vital in high technology. China has a dominant position in this area, since roughly 70 percent of rare earth mining, 90 percent of separation and processing, and 93 percent of magnet manufacturing, takes place in that country.

An enraged Trump immediately announced that he would impose 100% tariffs on all imports from China to the US and that he would also not meet with Xi during the summit. His treasury secretary Scott Bessent immediately tried to downplay fears of a new trade war escalation, saying that the two countries were engaged in trade talks. Trump then later said that the 100% tariffs would only be applied in November and that he would in fact likely meet with Xi after all to negotiate. Most people assumed that this was another case of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) in action, with Trump threatening extreme actions and then backing down.
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It is becoming increasingly clear that Trump is preparing the ground for a direct military assault on Venezuela. This has been steadily building. There have long been sanctions against that country. Then we had allegations that drug gangs from that country are creating a national security threat to the US, which was used to justify attacks on at least eight small boats in the Caribbean that have killed at least 37 people, on the unsubstantiated claim that they were bringing drugs to the US. Even if true, such attacks would be a flagrant violation of international law. That this was a laughable proposition was made even more unbelievable by the fact that most of the drug flow to the US occurs via the Pacific Ocean, which Venezuela does not share a coast with. But hey, this is the US that doesn’t give a damn about upholding international law unless it is a perceived enemy country that violates it.

It may be that those attacks were an attempt to provoke the Venezuelan government to retaliate in some way so that a full-scale invasion could be justified. This is the standard practice of the US and also Israel. They attack people in their own homes and territories and when those people resist and fight back even in self-defense, they are charged with being terrorists and even harsher attacks follow.

Now we have Trump publicly saying that he has ordered the CIA to conduct covert strikes within the country which suggests that he does not know the meaning of the word covert or that the CIA’s mode of operation is to never acknowledge when and where it is operating. Trump has also ordered its largest aircraft carrier to head towards Venezuela, the clearest sign yet of plans for a potential invasion.
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Congressional districts for the US House of Representatives are redrawn after every census that takes place every decade. The next census is due in 2030. Each state has its own rules for how to draw the maps but in many states, especially those controlled by Republicans, the lines are drawn in strange ways just so that it gives a big advantage to their party. As a result, the percentage of Republicans who are elected to Congress from each state well exceed the percentage of votes that they get.

But Republicans are jittery that their current razor-thin majority in Congress will be lost in the 2026 mid-term elections, so states like Texas and elsewhere abruptly decided to redraw their maps midway through the decade to give Republicans even more seats. In retaliation, California governor Gavin Newsom decided to do the same thing in California to offset the Texas move. Currently the state’s districts are drawn by an independent commission so as to have fairness.

As a result, on election day November 4th, California voters will vote Proposition 50, a referendum that seeks to do away with the existing congressional district maps and replace it with a new one that favors Democrats but will be in effect only until the next census in 2030 requires the drawing of new maps. The referendum asks voters to essentially take a regressive step and approve a gerrymandered map that favors Democrats.
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Relations between China and the US have been tense ever since Trump started his mercurial behavior with tariffs, raising and lowering and raising them again so frequently that I gave up trying to keep track. Trade relations between the US and the rest of the world seem more and more like a poker game in which the US starts out with a huge pile of chips and keeps raising the stakes, forcing out the smaller players, the countries that cannot afford to go toe-to-toe with the economic giant, so that they fold. The one exception is China which does have the resources to stay in the game. Up until now, they seem to have been content to be in a reactive mode, matching the US as it raises the ante.

But in a surprising development, China took the lead in raising the stakes, imposing new measures that would enable them to restrict the export of rare earth materials that are crucial for electronics.

China’s Ministry of Commerce on Thursday unveiled its most expansive rare earth export controls to date, allowing Beijing not only to restrict shipments of raw materials and magnets — as it has in the past — but also any devices that incorporate those elements. Because Chinese rare earths are embedded in everything from iPhones and electric vehicle motors to fighter-jet sensors, the rules effectively give Beijing potential veto power over vast swaths of global manufacturing.

The vast potential reach of China’s action, and the U.S.’s counteraction, was on display Friday: Trump’s tariff announcement sent stocks tumbling, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 2 percent, its worst day since April.
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