It should be no surprise that Trump and Hegseth have been hiding the true costs of the Iran war from the public all the time and the Republican leadership in Congress has abetted this deception. Even right at the beginning, when Trump declared that the US strikes had totally obliterated Iran’s capabilities, it appears that Iran had severely damaged US bases in the region. The evidence is coming out now in the form of photographs sent to US media by service members in the region.
CBS News obtained and broadcast some of the footage.
The Intercept reports on the costs and the unrelenting attacks on US bases that has brought the US to “the brink of a breakdown”.
As the conflict has engulfed the region, the military has grappled with a growing list of challenges: Iranian attacks on U.S. bases and warships in the Middle East, depleted stockpiles of defensive munitions, increasing casualties, maintenance issues on ships, lengthy troop deployments, complicated logistics, flagging morale and a host of other issues that have taken a heavy toll on troops, damaged military readiness, and a strained Pentagon budget — contradicting months of rosy pronouncements by the Trump administration.
…Iran’s ability to overwhelm U.S. air defenses in the Middle East using attack drones and advanced ballistic missiles, as previously reported by The Intercept, has left the U.S. military in a precarious state. The Trump administration failed to appreciate Iran’s military prowess, said the first official. The other pointed to a “complete lack of planning” for the war. Since July 7 alone, there have been hundreds of U.S. casualties caused by Iranian attacks, according to official Pentagon statistics.
The officials said the military’s ability to function at peak capacity was crippled in the opening hours of the conflict when an Iranian missile and drone attack on February 28 destroyed Navy facilities in Manama, Bahrain, the region’s most critical logistics hub. The Pentagon claimed for months that the strikes did not significantly impact military operations, but last week acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao admitted “they blew the hell out of Bahrain.” More than six months after the attack, Naval Support Activity Bahrain remains a shambles. “We’re not getting back in there anytime soon,” said Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle, the Navy’s highest-ranking officer, during a recent town hall.
…Despite months of claims by Trump and self-styled War Secretary Pete Hegseth that Iran’s military was annihilated, Iran has attacked more than 15 bases across the Middle East, according to information from U.S. officials and Iranian reports.
Stocks of advanced air-defense missiles, like Patriot and THAAD interceptors, are so depleted that U.S. forces are not shooting down all Iranian missiles and drones aimed at U.S. and allied targets across the Middle East, according to U.S. officials who spoke to The Intercept as well as numerous press reports.
…“I have all the munitions necessary to both defend our forces as well as conduct a broad range of contingencies,” Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM chief, told Congress in May. But even the Pentagon admits that 410 U.S. troops have been killed or wounded since July 7 alone. Three U.S. soldiers were killed during Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base on July 17 and 18, for example. And an Iranian drone attack on Erbil Air Base, Iraq, on July 18 killed one soldier and left another injured during what CENTCOM called a “controlled detonation” of the downed aircraft.
The U.S. and its allies burned through more than 11,000 munitions, including large amounts of defensive missiles, in the first 16 days of the war alone, according to a March analysis by the Royal United Services Institute. About 65 percent of Patriot interceptors were expended between February and July, leaving fewer than 830 remaining from a pre-war total of 2,330, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The number of THAADs dropped from more than 450 to less than 270.
The war is now drawing in Saudi Arabia even more. We have reports that Ansarallah, the Houthi group in Yemen backed by Iran, made a stunning advance against the weak Yemeni government backed by Saudi Arabia, seizing large swathes of western Yemen along the Red Sea coast.
In the first few months of the fighting, Saudi Arabia was relatively untouched by Iran’s retaliatory attacks, compared with its neighbors. Now, with no end to the hostilities in sight, Iran is seeking greater leverage over the United States, and Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest oil exporter until the war knocked it down the list — has become a primary target.
Over the past two weeks alone, Saudi Arabia has faced Iran-backed attacks from the east, the south and the north.
…The same day, the Saudi authorities announced that they had been forced to shut down a critical oil pipeline, blaming a drone attack by an Iran-backed Iraqi militia. The pipeline had become a key alternative export route for Saudi Arabia to get its oil to the Red Sea, after Iran effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz.
“The reason a country like Saudi Arabia invests so heavily in developing a security partnership with the United States is for just this sort of eventuality,” said Mr. Ratney, the former ambassador.
But the US seems to be abandoning its long-time ally by making a separate deal with the Houthis whom they have previously condemned as a terrorist organization.
Officials from the US met Houthi leaders over the weekend at the country’s embassy in Muscat, Oman, it has been confirmed, leading to the US decision not to intervene to help Saudi Arabia drive back a Houthi advance inside Yemen.
…A former deputy US ambassador to Yemen, Nabeel Khoury, said a “kind of tacit understanding” had been struck between the Trump administration and the Houthis. Khoury added: “The Houthis are promising the American administration that American and international navigation will not be affected in the Red Sea, but the only danger is to Saudi ships or those carrying Saudi oil.”
By making a separate deal with the Houthis, the US leaves the Saudis vulnerable.One has to suspect that this abandonment is because the US stockpile of offensive and defensive weapons has been so depleted that they cannot afford to give any to Saudi Arabia.
There have also been other attacks against Saudi oil refineries.
Ansarallah says it struck Saudi Aramco in Yanbu, targeted Khamis Mushait airbase: Yemen’s Ansarallah said Wednesday that its forces launched dozens of ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu, claiming “direct and precise hits” that caused major fires and widespread destruction.
With the closing of its major pipeline and the Houthis taking control of Bab al-Mandab strait and the US offering no support for Houthi threats against Saudi oil tankers, this drastically reduces the shipping of Saudi oil in and out of the Red Sea, and has caused oil prices to rise even more.
The total direct and indirect costs of the war arise from the operational costs, the damage to US facilities in the region, the loss of munitions, the loss of planes, drones, and the rising prices paid by the US and the world in general because of the rise in oil prices and the restrictions on the flow of good. We are not being told how much this is but even back in March, just weeks into the war, some analysts warned that the ultimate cost could well be in the trillions of dollars.
The Pentagon on Thursday said the U.S. spent about $11.3 billion in just one week of its war on Iran; Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett similarly put the figure at $12 billion on Sunday.
But these sums are dwarfed by estimates offered by experts in the costs of war, lawmakers experienced with the Pentagon budget, and two government officials briefed on Operation Epic Fury who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
At the very least, they say the war is burning through between $1 billion and $2 billion per day — or roughly $11,500 to $23,000 per second. The cost, the officials told The Intercept, could rise to a quarter trillion dollars or more over the coming months.
Even that is a drop in the bucket compared to the long-term expenses, which could cost the U.S. trillions of dollars in the decades to come. One of the officials lamented that Americans would be paying off the war for generations.
“If this war takes months rather than weeks, the costs will become astronomical,” said Gabe Murphy, a policy analyst at Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan budget watchdog advocating for an end to wasteful spending,
Well, the war is now in its seventh month and no end is sight.
The similarities to the US’ experience in Vietnam, with Saudi Arabia in the role of South Vietnam, is really striking. Even the force protection problem, which the Iranians are currently shoving into the US’ face. Basically, the US has skated for decades by assuming that nobody’d attack US bases -- and now all the hands are flapping once that turned out wrong. The Vietcong managed to get some medium artillery in an overlooking position of the air base at Da Nang and demonstrated conclusively that the base was untenable. That, coupled with the French siege at Dien Bien Phu, ended the US’ Vietnam strategy.
The last shoe that hasn’t dropped is that the Iranians are still playing along with the accepted wisdom that nobody in their right mind would sink a US nuclear aircraft carrier. I’m pretty sure that there are furrowed brows in the strategery department at the US department of war. “Now what?” Well, back when we used to wargame this scenario when I was in high school, the usual Iranian response is to have a mix of standoff weapons, and close-in missiles, then trap the aircraft carrier on the wrong side of the strait of hormuz, effectively holding it hostage. The USN used to semi-permanently park a nuclear carrier in Dubai, which -- fortunately -- they got out of there before they sent the balloon up. Imagine what a hostage crisis that would make.
It was obvious in the first few days that the USA was lying about everything to do with the Iran war. Including refusing to call it the Iran war. They keep referring to it as the Iran conflict so they don’t have to pay benefits to the wounded and dead US soldiers.
We do know the wounded numbers are high, although not what the real number is.
Damage was heavy to US bases in the region.
A lot of planes were destroyed on the ground but who knows how many.
Our high tech weapons stocks are seriously depleted. 25% of all Reaper drones at 45 are reported to have been shot down by the Iranians.
We also know now that the Iran war is now a massive failure for the USA.
The latest was the Yemen Houthis capturing the Red Sea strait and Iran backed militias destroying the Saudi Arabian pipeline. Saudi Arabia had three ways to get their oil shipped. Down the Strait of Hormuz, down the Red Sea strait, or through the east-west pipeline to the Red Sea and up through the Suez canal.
Now all three are blocked.
The world is on the edge of an energy shortage that is going to be serious and long lasting.
When the Houthis overran the Red Sea coast, the Saudis asked the USA for help. They wanted some air strikes to slow them down. The US military did nothing.
It’s not clear why but it is possible that the US military did nothing because they couldn’t do anything.
As an ally in the region, we aren’t much of one and not someone to rely on.
One of the lessons that came out of this war is that the US military is a paper tiger.
We can beat up anyone in the world for two weeks and then we are out of ammunition and our logistics aren’t very good.
We have 11 air craft carriers and it seems like we can only keep one or two at sea at a time.
@1 Marcus Ranum: It wasn’t so much assuming that nobody would attack a US base as assuming nobody could. That bases deep inside other countries were largely out of reach for most enemies and that a Patriot system could take out the occasional ballistic missile they could launch. Drones have ruined that entire equation, giving even small countries the ability to launch medium range attacks in number.
Plus US planners forgot that given unlimited time to plan and prepare attackers will find a way. A bunch of the attacks on US bases have been made by infiltration teams already inside the host country. In a country where the rulers are highly unpopular it’s easier to plant and keep such teams ready.
Prince Bonesaw is not going to be popular in the inner Saudi circle. Like Putin, he has not been adverse to the occasional murder (the US citizen was not the first victim). And like Putin, he only maintains control by the belief that there are too many stormtroopers backing him for a successful challenge.
In theory his father is still the king and can withdraw his support.
@ 3 JM
It wasn’t so much assuming that nobody would attack a US base as assuming nobody could.
Probably true when the bases were built. However the RSAF base in Dhahran, just across causeway from Bahrain started as a USAF base in ~1945 and the Bahraini naval base in ~1948. To be fair, the bases were pretty secure during the Iran–Iraq War.
It does not look good on the US military or the various administrations that they seem to have managed to ignore 4.5+ years of the Ukraine mess. Certainly, after the 12 Day War in 2025 it must have been obvious that holding bases in the Gulf was going to be impossible or close to it.
“In a country where the rulers are highly unpopular it’s easier to plant and keep such teams ready.”
Even if the rulers are not too unpopular, the USA isn’t well liked. And attacking a bomber on the ground doesn’t have the moral cost of actually killing someone
@5: The US had set up a drone unit, with the objective of developing a doctrine on the use of drones. Hegseth reverted it to regular infantry, claiming a return to basics. Congresspersons have been asking questions. (Personally I’d be tempted to add this to his terms of impeachment as an(other) act of sabotage, but it could be argued that I’m not qualified to judge this particular decision.)
@1 Marcus Ranum:
Reminds me of the start of the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. The Japanese sent in ships to attack the Russian Pacific Fleet that was in what was then Port Arthur, shot several up, then pulled back out. The Russian ships started out of the harbour… and the Japanese, who had left several ships just off to the sides of the harbour entrance to set up a crossfire, sank the first few ships right at the narrowest point of the entrance of the harbour. This basically locked every other ship in the harbour because they couldn’t navigate past the shipwrecks, and allowed the Japanese to effectively remove the entire Pacific Fleet from battle while they casually lobbed weapons in at the trapped ships.
Yeah, Pearl Harbor wasn’t the first time the Japanese used the ‘launch a surprise attack at where the naval fleet is docked to take it out early’ tactic.
The Russo-Japanese War is an interesting bit of history that doesn’t get taught much over here, but is a good chunk of the reason why the Russian military was such a mess heading into World War I ten years later. And as the first time that an Asian military power completely defeated a European military power in relatively modern times, it was a significant cultural shock to the collective European superiority complex.
The removal of Saddam Hussein set up an opportunity for Iran to expand, but they needed TOT*’s startup kick to really get them going. Now they see how ineffectual the US presence in the Middle East really is: a paper tiger. They must be wondering why they didn’t seize full control of the Strait of Hormuz years ago. Saudi’s economy is being hurt, but Iraq is the real loser.
Meanwhile TOT sees how all his weapons are crumbling, save the nukes. You can bet he spends his nights dreaming of ways he might turn the tide with them. Any use would hasten his ruin, but beware the cornered rat. The man with only a hammer sees everything as a nail.
Pigs like TOT have made screeds of money by looting peasants. Economies of scale made him filthy rich. The same thing doesn’t work the other way around though. Trillions of dollars can buy expensive big things, but myriads of little things deplete hoards the same way they built them up. The new war is the drone war, where you need to make lots of little things and the size of your hoard is more symbolic than practical**.
*The Orange Turd
** Putin in particular should have learned this. He may live to regret not being serious about pursuing peace when Russia looked more the ascendant.