What will Monday’s Trump trial bring?


On Monday, April 15th, the criminal trial involving 34 felony charges against serial sex offender Donald Trump (SSAT) for the payment of hush money to Stormy Daniels is scheduled to begin. Since it is a criminal trial, SSAT is required to be present during it, unlike in the case of the previous civil trials involving the fraud case brought by New York attorney general Letitia James and the two brought by E. Jean Carroll which he chose to sometimes attend, mainly to vent his spleen to the media outside the courthouse.

SSAT has been trying his mightiest to get this next trial, like all his trials, postponed since his entire legal strategy is to avoid any conviction before the election on November 5th in the hope that he wins and can thus shut down all prosecutions. With his federal cases, he can simply order his attorney general to drop them. With the state trials, it is a little more complicated but he could argue that as a sitting president, he has some kind of immunity and that the trials should not go ahead until he leaves office. He is already arguing that, in the federal case over his handling of confidential documents, he has immunity and the US Supreme Court is going to hear that case and will not rule on it until June or July.

All these trial maneuverings reveal how, if you have money, you can tie the legal system up in knots by filing one case after another, and one appeal after another. Although political observers are awaiting at the prospect of this trial beginning on Monday, I would not be surprised if something happens at the last minute to postpone this trial yet again. And if and when it does start, just seating the jury could take quite some time, since SSAT’s lawyers are going to try and show that an impartial jury cannot be found.

I am surprised that SSAT and his lawyers have not been censured for filing frivolous cases as delaying tactics but since they have taken place in so many different courtrooms, perhaps in each one they have not as yet reached the level required to trigger that warning. James Romoser describes all the ways in which, far from being persecuted by the justice system, SSAT has been getting special treatment, facing no consequences for things that would get other defendants quickly slapped with fines or jail time.

It also should be borne in mind that quite a few legal analysts feel that this case, even though it was the first criminal case to be brought against him, is the weakest of all the cases because it hinges crucially on showing intent in falsifying business records, that there was specific quid pro quo in that SSAT gave Daniels the money to prevent her from revealing her affair with him because this would adversely affect his election campaign in 2016, and then lied about it..

When [Manhattan district attorney Alvin] Bragg first filed the charges, the biggest issue in the case was whether the crimes amounted to a felony. In New York, falsification of business records is a misdemeanor, but can be charged as a felony when it is done with the intent to commit another crime. Bragg has said Trump falsified the business records with the intent to violate federal and New York state election laws, among other things – a novel way of charging the crime.

Many experts were initially somewhat skeptical of this strategy. While Judge Juan Merchan and a federal judge have both allowed Bragg to proceed to trial on this theory, it will probably be a central issue at the trial. Bragg will need to convince the jurors beyond a reasonable doubt not only that Trump falsified business records but also that he intended to violate another law.

Showing intent is not easy. This is further complicated by the fact that a key witness for the prosecution is SSAT’s former personal lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen. Cohen was the person SSAT used as a conduit for the payment but he has already pleaded guilty to campaign finance and tax evasion charges and has spent time in prison and been disbarred, and in addition has admitted to lying to Congress, thus undermining his credibility. Cohen has given a lively and entertaining interview where he says that most people do not know what to expect at the trial and will be surprised when it does get underway. He also discusses how he will try to combat SSAT’s attacks on his credibility.

If this trial goes through and a jury decides in favor of SSAT on all 34 charges, that might give him a boost, because he will crow about how this shows that all the cases against him are merely political persecutions. But if the jury finds him guilty on even one charge, then you can be sure that Democrats will start referring to him in their speeches and ads as ‘convicted felon Trump’ every time they talk about him.

Comments

  1. sonofrojblake says

    “you can be sure that Democrats will start referring to him in their speeches and ads as ‘convicted felon Trump’ every time they talk about him.”

    One can only hope that will dent his popularity at least a little bit. Him being a proven rapist didn’t, but who knows?

  2. birgerjohansson says

    Even if just half a per cent of voters in swing states get turned off by the trial it is important. The MAGA cult are not 50%, SSAT must recruit voters among the unaffiliated to get reelected and start The End of Days.
    (Musical theme)
    .https://youtube.com/watch?v=d8RH8RO0eR0
    (But this guy has more style than SSAT)

  3. says

    Mano writes: “On Monday, April 15th, the criminal trial involving 34 felony charges against serial sex offender Donald Trump (SSAT) for the payment of hush money to Stormy Daniels is scheduled to begin. ”

    Mano, you are doing the same thing that most media outlets are doing -- calling it a hush money case. The charges are related to falsifying business records, usually a misdemeanor but elevated to a felony in this case because the records were falsified for the purposes of aiding another crime. That other crime was violating campaign finance laws. The payment to Stormy Daniels was made a mere 11 days before the 2016 election. The timing and other evidence show that the payment was made to keep Daniels quiet so as not to potentially affect the election.

  4. Tethys says

    The last appeal had a clause by the judge that the prosecution should seek sanctions in any further frivolous attempts to delay the proceedings. Apparently he can only sanction the defendants if the prosecution requests sanctions.

    Mano OP

    It also should be borne in mind that quite a few legal analysts feel that this case, even though it was the first criminal case to be brought against him, is the weakest of all the cases because it hinges crucially on showing intent in falsifying business records….

    I clicked through to the link, where ‘quite a few’ is exactly one legal analyst afaict.
    Intent is not relevant to falsifying business records, especially when you consider that Cohen has already been convicted for his role in perpetuating fraud.

    As noted by joelgrant, this is a very biased article that misrepresents the actual case.

    Here is a much better synopsis:

    For example, in the statement of facts the DA filed, along with the indictment, it says:

    TRUMP repeatedly and fraudulently falsified New York business records to conceal criminal conduct that hid damaging information from the voting public during the 2016 presidential election” and “the Defendant orchestrated a scheme with others to influence the 2016 presidential election by identifying and purchasing negative information about him to suppress its publication and benefit the Defendant’s electoral prospects.

    Influencing his 2016 election via committing multiple criminal frauds is far more serious than business fraud.

    The Judge who will be overseeing this proceeding, released his preliminary jury remarks and questions, and in it, the Court states that he will tell the prospective jurors “the allegations are in substance, that Donald Trump falsified business records to conceal an agreement with others to unlawfully influence the 2016 presidential election.”

    There is more discussion on the relative importance of this case at the link. It is written by a former staff head at the Manhattan DA office.

    The most salient point IMO;

    This is the case that reflects the efforts Trump went through to influence the 2016 election – and it worked. He won the election. And he only won by a slim margin of fewer than 80,000 votes in three swing states.

    What if, on the heels of the release of the Access Hollywood tape right before the 2016 election, where Trump boasts of grabbing women’s genitals without their consent, that he was able suppress from voters the fact that he had extra marital affairs with both an adult film porn star Stormy Daniels and former Playboy Bunny Karen McDougal, was the key to his victory by this slim margin?

    That in order to do so, he fraudulently falsified business records in order to conceal illegal campaign donations and income tax fraud is the path prosecutors have chosen to charge him does not make this somehow less serious conduct. After all, what ultimately tripped up Al Capone was easily provable tax fraud charges, not the many murders he was responsible for but were more difficult to prove.

    https://www.meidastouch.com/news/trump-manhattan-da-criminal-trial-may-be-the-most-important

  5. says

    The timing and other evidence show that the payment was made to keep Daniels quiet so as not to potentially affect the election.

    Trump also asked if, once they successfully won the election, they still had to pay Stormy. It was election interference.

    To me, the question is which mattered more -- Comey’s incessant Hillarybating or the access hollywood/stormy daniels incident. Unfortunately both had an effect.

  6. jenorafeuer says

    As for delays, there’s not a lot left Trump can do, to my understanding. The most recent attempt at getting the appeals court to put the trial on hold resulted in ‘we’ll look into this, but the trial start date does not need to be delayed while we look into it’. And one of the few options Trump has left is firing his lawyers, which isn’t going to work either because at this point the lawyers have to request permission from the judge to leave, and he can just say ‘no, you can deal with your own problems, these are still the lawyers of record in this case’. So he’s on track to be in the courtroom, and the appeals court has been quite obviously getting annoyed with his desperate flailing, as well as the judge. Not to mention that if Trump violates the gag order in front of the judge in the courtroom he can pretty much be held in contempt right there and the bailiff can show him to a cell.

    It’s true that this is sadly not the strongest of the cases against him. What’s sadly also true is that the strongest of the cases against him is the one that’s in the hands of a bootlicker of a judge down in Florida that has managed to avoid being forcibly removed from the case so far, and who is possibly smart enough to do her best to stay on the case at least until the case itself starts and the jury is sworn in, because after that point she can find him not guilty and double jeopardy rules means the same charges can’t be brought against him.

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