As we all know, US presidential election results are not based on national vote totals but on the basis of the Electoral College that determines the result on a state-by-state basis. There are 538 electoral votes in total, thus requiring 270 to win. Hence it is really state polling that is important, though national polls can give some idea of which way sentiment is moving.
Josh Marshall says that currently Hillary Clinton has 273 electoral votes in states where she leads Donald Trump by 10 points or more. Things can, of course, change in the next 88 days but in general in past elections, things settle down a couple of weeks after the two conventions and the state of affairs tends to remain fairly stable after that.
All Clinton has to do is to hold on to those states that went for president Obama in 2012 and gave him 332 votes. But it looks like states that voted for Romney in 2012 (particularly North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and even Utah, that provide a total of 48 votes) are within her reach and in play in this election, giving Clinton more options and making winning all of the traditionally key states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida less critical to her chances. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has to hold on to all of Romney’s states that gave him 206 votes and add all the 67 votes provided by Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida to win.
So things do not look good for Trump at the moment. He may decide that he needs to do something really dramatic to shake up the race and so we should brace ourselves for even more controversial statements to come from him, along the lines of the stand up comedy routines that cartoonist Tom Tomorrow describes.