Update on the North Carolina same sex marriage ban


It looks like Amendment 1 that bans same sex marriage will likely pass in North Carolina on Tuesday. Although there had been some drop in support early on giving hope to supporters of gay rights that there was an outside chance of defeating it, recent polls show that the margin of support has stabilized at about 14%.

Part of the problem is that North Carolina voters are not that knowledgeable and do not seem to realize that the amendment also bans civil unions, which they are not that much against.

The problem for opponents is that only 40% of voters actually know that the amendment bans both gay marriage and civil unions. With those voters the amendment is failing by a 60-38 margin. But with voters who think all the amendment does is ban gay marriage, 27% of the electorate, it’s passing by a 72-27 margin. And with voters who admit they don’t actually know what the amendment does, 26% of the electorate, it leads by a 64-28 margin. The more voters understand the full implications of the amendment the less likely they are to support it, but the clock is ticking.

Nate Silver’s updated model of predictions for bans against same sex marriage and civil unions for all the states suggests that the amendment will pass by 7% to 19%. Support for bans on same sex marriage alone is much greater.

Comments

  1. Fred says

    Isn’t that really the while thing neatly summarized? The more informed the electorate becomes the less effective these stunts become.

  2. thewhollynone says

    We really need to amend the Constitution with the Equal Rights Amendment. We just need three more states to ratify it.

  3. Josh, Official SpokesGay says

    Not all of us are Bible-thumping, Billy Graham-loving, blind supporters.

    That’s nice.

    Now how ’bout you shut your trap and stop bragging about how liberal you are to folks like us (because we really don’t give a shit) and re-direct that energy to calling out your fellow Christians loudly and publicly?

    If you wanna help, that is.

  4. Karen Sanders says

    Clearly you’re looking to instigate drama, for what purpose I don’t know. Perhaps attitudes like yours are why there are less people speaking out against.

  5. says

    Yes, of course, “attitudes like [Josh]’s” are why not enough people are speaking out. It’s not that fundie xtians control the conversation and bully people who disagree with them into shutting up. It’s all the fault of those uppity queers who are tired of liberal xtians who want everybody to know that they’re not like those awful fundies, yet who choose to remain in a patriarchal religion that gives rhetorical shelter to fundies and who whine when challenged on their theist privilege.

    Check yours, Karen.

  6. lee says

    Why do people think it is ok to vote on the rights of others? What’s next a vote on interracial marriage?

  7. kim says

    To me it sounds like you and Josh are accusing Karen of trying to bully those that want equality and that she is telling you that you should just shut up. I don’t see where Karen says that you should just sit down and be quiet. She is trying to point out that the sterotype of the North Carolina population and is just that – a stereotype. That just because she is part of the majority doesn’t mean she is trying to control the minority and is better than them.
    If she can help to get people to defeat this measure, does it matter if she is hetero, married, etc.?
    She is trying to spread the word about how this amendment is bad and was told “shut your trap” because you don’t like something about her. I ccan understand her not appreciating being told to not rock the boat any more than you do.

  8. Happiestsadist says

    If all it takes to deny LGBTQ people basic human rights is not being coddled for how totally liberal you are, you were never on our side anyway. If you’re in it for cookies, you’re in it for yourself.

  9. Happiestsadist says

    You sound very straight. Here’s the thing: she’s more interested in defending Christianity from people pointing out that there’s a damn lot of followers who’d happily wipe people like me out. You can see this in her “Look how good a liberal I am! Don’t be mean to Christians just because the majority of homophobia in the area is related to religion!” comment. If you wanna help and be an ally, doing so in helpful ways is a start.

  10. Karen Sanders says

    Thank you, Kim, for recognizing my attempt to show that not all in my demographic are homophobic, right-wing conservatives. That is the only reason I shared the information. I have been vocal in my local paper, with literature and signs, but I shouldn’t have to sell myself on HOW or WHY I am here supporting the fight to defeat Amendment One. Attacking me was way out of line.

  11. CT says

    Since I live in nowhereville, nc I can answer definitively that the religious people don’t care that it bans civil unions. All they care is that they show to their “god” that they support “him”. To make it worse, you can talk to them and they say crap like “oh I don’t have anythign against gay people but you know my pastor wants me to vote this way and everybody in my church is voting this way”. This is not about gay rights to them, it’s about staying in the ‘right’ crowd at church so that they can be sure to go to ‘heaven’ because that’s in doubt if they think for themselves and do what they know is right instead of what some talking head told them to do in “gods name”.

    My frequent comment is ‘welcome to iran’.

  12. CT says

    Hi, angry-boy. I plan to vote and I do what I can but it’s like trying to herd cats. Move here and do what I do every day, then you can be all angry and crap. Until then, stop making those of us who have to live in this pile of crap feel even worse that we can’t stop a mountain falling on top of us and our children.

  13. CT says

    “you sound very straight” wth kind of comment is that? I was born straight, does that somehow make me less able to see wth is going on in the world or something? I’m very straight, very white, very married, very mommy with very straight kids, atheist, and was born and live in the *SOUTH* :: horror :: and I still think amendment one is a pile of crap. Hope that doesn’t break your stereotype machine or anything.

  14. Happiestsadist says

    Yes, straight privilege does make you less aware of queer oppression than LGBTQ people are. This concludes the 101 portion.

    I really don’t care what a special snowflake you are, but be aware that straight privilege is a thing, and that you have it.

  15. CT says

    Why do you keep saying that? ARe you in the next cubicle? Do you live in my house? Do I *know* you?

    Unfortunately, you remind me of the xtian crap I put up with on a daily basis. People who are so enamored of their ideas that they refuse to see or hear anything else for fear it might injure what they see as who they are. They aren’t a person, they are “christian” or “gay” or “straight” or “southern” or “redneck” or “from new york” or “english”. Anything you say that challenges that just results in manic repetition of their mantra “but I’m from new york”, “but I go to this church”, “but I’m gay”, “but you’re white and I’m black”.

    Try to think outside the little world revolving around your head. Other people live outside there and they aren’t who you think they are. Just because you think it, doesn’t make it a reality.

  16. James says

    Karen, thanks for sharing. In reading your blog post it doesn’t sound like you oppose the amendment because it restricts gay marriage, but because it will also hurt women, heterosexuals and children. I know many people who identify themselves as Christians and also support gay marriage. I am curious where you stand on that specific part of this issue? If you in fact believe that all people should be treated equally and enjoy the privledges that married heterosexual couples do then please blog about it on your post. Realize that the same hatred you felt directed at you by the fundamentalist church is the same hatred that the LGBTQ community feels from just about every church. You don’t seem like a hater. Be brave and cross that line.

  17. Happiestsadist says

    I’m basing it on what you’re saying. You’re showing me more than enough of yourself and why many people who think they’re “allies” need to sit the hell down.

    But no, please keep on shouting down the mean ol’ queer for not being niiiiice enough and for not showering crap “allies” with flowers and pastries for meeting the basic minimum of human decency. Maybe start educating yourself a little bit, and think about the fact that if you’re insulting the group you purport to be so supportive of, you might not be doing it right. Privilege is a thing. Seriously.

  18. CT says

    just wth, how am I insulting a group by insulting you? Sorry, I was raised in a very racist environment and I’ve heard that effing argument before and it’s no more valid *now* than it was then. Just because I think you are living in your tiny little insulated world that revolves around your head doesn’t mean that I think all gay people are that way, no more than me disliking a black person means I dislike all black people.

    Your argument is invalid. I simply could care less that you’re gay, black, white, cherokee, martian, northern, southern, or whatever. YOU, a person, YOU are the one inhabiting a tiny little imaginary place where all straight people are the enemy because “they just don’t understand”. You have no idea if I understand, you just keep saying crap about your idea of the world. It’s time to grow up, come and play with the rest of us instead of swinging on the swing sets in your head alone.

  19. Karen Sanders says

    I don’t care who anyone sleeps with unless it’s me. I oppose bans on gay marriage. Marriage is about people who love one another. No one should infringe on that. My pointing out that NC already has a ban was another reason this amendment is unnecessary.

  20. Josh, Official SpokesGay says

    Yep, it’s totes people like me that stop otherwise good people from speaking out against bigotry.

  21. Happiestsadist says

    You’re at this point raging against a ridiculous strawman and pretending I’m the one who’s not paying attention to the real world. Projection much? The fact that you can’t tell the difference between a racist fundamentalist claiming disagreement is persecution and a queer person saying that you’re not actually helping queer people says a lot about you. The fact that you refuse to acknowledge structural oppression and privilege does as well.

  22. CT says

    “You’re at this point raging against a ridiculous strawman and pretending I’m the one who’s not paying attention to the real world. Projection much? The fact that you can’t tell the difference between a racist fundamentalist claiming disagreement is persecution and a queer person saying that you’re not actually helping queer people says a lot about you. The fact that you refuse to acknowledge structural oppression and privilege does as well.”

    Um, you need to be more literate to understand what I was saying. sorry. I’ll try to dumb it down more.

    You have no idea what I know about privilege. you have no idea what I know about oppression. You do seem to have a tendency to think that anybody straight that seems to be on your side is doing no good. Since Heteros outnumber gay people by quite a lot, I think your plan to dominate the world will fail quite dramatically unless some of us “privileged ignorant” heteros aren’t on your side. That’s what we call here in the real world “majority rules”.

    but, yes, you are a good reason for me to keep my mouth shut and drop any activism for the rights of all people. Too bad I’m not basing my activism on you but on my idea of what’s right and wrong.

    sorry, I’ll try not to include you in my “privileged ignorant” rants about why everyone deserves to be treated equally. I’ll keep in mind that you think anyone not queer who is trying to get rights for all people is not really helping in your world. Because, you know, we’re all privileged and shit. I’ll stop disturbing your world view now and leave you to your stereotype machine. I deal with quite enough people like you every. single. day. People who see “white”, “straight”, “southern”, “uneducated” and take their little wayback machines and stick labels on everyone. Have fun there in that little world, say hey to the xtians for me, mkay?

    Yes, this is a “this is the last comment” comment because I’ve been forced to work with people like this since birth and if they’ve repeated themselves more than twice, they pretty much are tight, closed little boxes with hands over eyes and ears. In short, a useless waste of time to argue/discuss/talk/reason with.

  23. Leo says

    Well, I must say the oddest part of your blog post is where you say, “I am not here to argue about morals or religion. Both of those are subjective.” Religion is subjective? Really? Religion…a thing that often makes truth claims is subjective? It’s crap like that which annoys people like myself and I suspect Josh as well.

    Here’s another head-scratcher: “Our country was founded on principles of freedom. ‘One Nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for ALL’. I don’t think the penners of our pledge of allegiance really divided out races, adulterers, or homosexuals in that phrase.” First, here was actually only ONE “penner” of the pledge of allegiance, who was a socialist Christian. Two, that penner did not include the words “under God” in the original. Three, our nation was not founded on this idea. But I see a commenter on your blog has already made most of these observations.

    Yet, perhaps the most bothersome thing you said is above when you said this: “I shouldn’t have to sell myself on HOW or WHY I am here supporting the fight to defeat Amendment One.” OK, then do those who are fighting to pass Amendment One have to sell themselves on how or why? If it’s all subjective and just opinion, why bother? Just to share your “opinion”?

    About all I can think of saying is there really isn’t a place for moral relativists in this conversation. Why should anyone change their minds on gay marriage over your mere opinion?

  24. Forbidden Snowflake says

    Just how much of a colossal moron does a person have to be to write that screed, CT? That long rant, which can be summarized as “Well if your queer ass isn’t nice to me then I might just stop supporting your rights and then you’ll be screwed” was a prime disgusting example of privileged bullying (rubbing it in the face of a queer person that you are Teh Majoriteh and that supporting their rights is to you just a hobby you can quit if you’re tired of it was exactly that) and being a shitty ally.

    You don’t in fact have the first clue of what the term “privilege” means. Happiestsadist did not say, or even imply, that “anybody straight that was on [his or her] side is doing no good”, that was just your poor comprehension at work.

  25. kim says

    I never said you would stop her, me or others. Just pointing out that making assumptions about people, their positions and actions and telling them to shut their traps because they don’t know you and what you went through and are priveledged would discourage them from working with you. We will still continue to work on the problem even though you are offended that we are trying. We know that it is worth trying regardless of what one person says.

  26. Josh, Official SpokesGay says

    Do you know that people can read what you wrote?

    Perhaps attitudes like yours are why there are less people speaking out against.

    For goodness’ sake, take responsibility for what you say even if you thought better of it later.

  27. Josh, Official SpokesGay says

    And I’m not “offended that you’re trying.” Human rights issues need people of good will from all walks of life to help out. What offends me is your need to be seen as good, and not a nasty Christian, seems to take precedence over the real issue. Once again, I’m not the problem. Your Christian brethren are. They need called out and shouted down. To the extent that you feel unfairly tarred you have them to blame, not me.

  28. Jared A says

    Do you know that people can read what you wrote?

    Perhaps attitudes like yours are why there are less people speaking out against.

    For goodness’ sake, take responsibility for what you say even if you thought better of it later.

    For what it’s worth, Kim didn’t say that, Karen did. I think that Kim said rather reasonable things, and just because she spoke up for Karen doesn’t mean they have all of the same opinions.

    Josh, I totally get where you’re coming from, but very subtle changes in reading of tone can drastically change the context. When responding to people on the internet you have to be aware of this and not jump to conclusions and starting flaming.

    Your reading of Karen’s original post as being defensive and asking for undue deference for “liberal christians” was a reasonable interpretation, and your response makes sense in that context.

    But it was not the only one. It could also be interpreted as commiserative, that is, “I’m sorry that people in my group are terrible, I”m trying to change their minds, I hope I can make a difference.” In that context your flame was way out of line.

    So how do you know which is the correct interpretation? Reserve judgement, don’t flame, ask questions. Isn’t that how we teach ourselves to overcome our prejudices?

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