Reminder: Action on climate change will cause a short-term increase in temperature, so we should plan for that.

It is my opinion that humanity’s response to climate change, going forward, should be guided by the assumption that it’s going to keep warming for at least a century. If we can get things under control faster than that, it’ll be a nice surprise, but it would be dangerous and reckless to assume that we’ll be able to do it. That means that we cannot simply focus on reducing emissions. We must also be working to prepare for the warming that we know we can no longer avoid. There are a number of reasons for this belief. Feedback loops like methane from melting permafrost are part of it, as is my view of global politics, but a big part is the fact that air pollution has been keeping the temperature lower than it would otherwise be.

Basically, some air pollution reflects sunlight back into space, reducing the amount of solar energy that actually reaches the planet. As we reduce air pollution, more sunlight hits the planet, and the temperature rises more quickly. This is something we’ve known about for a long time, but apparently worldwide efforts to reduce air pollution since 2000 have been successful, and that has caused a measurable increase in the planet’s temperature:

In a new international analysis, Professor Johannes Quaas, a meteorologist at Leipzig University, and colleagues from across Europe, China, and the US have now documented robust evidence of this effect on the climate of improved air quality. “We analysed data from NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites. They have been providing comprehensive satellite observations of the Earth since the year 2000, measuring incoming and outgoing radiation, but also clouds and aerosol pollution. The latter has decreased significantly across North America, Europe and East Asia since 2000,” says Professor Johannes Quaas, lead author of the study, which was initiated in a meeting by the two European research projects CONSTRAIN and FORCES.

This has also reduced the cooling effect of aerosols. Compared to the year 2000, it has led to an increase in the warming effect that is up to 50 per cent of the one by CO2 increases in the same period. This means an acceleration of the drivers of global warming compared to the previous period. “Our study should not be interpreted to mean that we should now be emitting more aerosols to cool the climate. On the contrary: aerosols are harmful to human health and the environment, which is why we need to keep reducing emissions,” Quaas concludes. And it is why air quality legislation has become increasingly stringent since the 1970s and is being implemented by more and more countries. Professor Quaas and his colleagues on the new study stress the ever more urgent need for rapid and strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

This effect will continue as we keep reducing air pollution. As the study authors say, reducing air pollution is very important. Not only will it save lives under normal conditions, but the higher temperatures of the coming decades will make air pollution much more dangerous than it already is. While geoengineering projects could change the equation in theory, relying on them to save us seems like a bad idea; at best, they would kick the can down the road. As I’ve said before, I think we’re likely to need the time that would buy us, but only if we’re actually using it to end fossil fuel use and to adapt to those change that are set in stone.

There was a little leeway in the 20th century, but we blew that. Things are more volatile now, and we’re out of time. Still, it’s good that air pollution has been going down, and it’s good to have confirmation that our understanding of how things work is accurate. It’s going to be a bumpy ride no matter what, but we do know what we need to in order to get through it.

If you like the content of this blog, please share it around. If you like the blog and you have the means, please consider joining my lovely patrons in paying for the work that goes into it. Due to my immigration status, I’m currently prohibited from conventional wage labor, so for the next couple years at least this is going to be my only source of income. You can sign up for as little as $1 per month (though more is obviously welcome), to help us make ends meet – every little bit counts!

Video: Let’s talk about a stark warning from an Arizona Republican…

I have said it before, and I’ll say it again: The election of Joe Biden did not stop the U.S. slide into fascism – it just delayed it a bit. That doesn’t mean that there’s no hope of stopping it, or of resisting should the fascists gain full control, but it does mean that people should still be engaging in politics with the assumption that there is a very real danger of losing those tatters of democracy that still remain.

The TL:DW of this video is that the Arizona GOP tried to pass a law that would allow the legislature of the state to treat votes as suggestions. The goal was for them to have the ability to legally send their own slate of Presidential electors to DC, regardless of what the voters of Arizona actually wanted. Rusty Bowers, a long-time Republican politician and outgoing speaker of the AZ state house, blocked that bill, just as he blocked Trump’s attempt to seize control of the government on January 6th. He lost his most recent election, and the Trump wing will apparently now have more solid control over that legislature. I don’t know if that one state would have made the difference numerically, but we can all tell where this is going, right?

They will almost certainly try this again, and I seriously doubt this will stop in Arizona.

I also want to underscore that this guy is not some never-Trump Republican. He supported Trump throughout his time in office. He’s not someone worth looking up to, but I feel like it does say a lot that the GOP is going too far even for this guy.

Would have been nice if he’d seen that coming before he helped give rise to the GOP’s open fascism phase.

As ever, I don’t think this trend in US politics is cause for despair, so much as it is cause for people to accept that the political norms and tactics of the past no longer apply. If you’re looking for other ways to work towards a better future, see if there’s anything useful here. For those not familiar, it’s a collection of resources relating to organizing and direct action given the current situation that I update irregularly. Things are bad, and they seem likely to get worse, but there’s plenty you and those around you can do to help put us on a better course.

Lives are traded for profit yet again, as Puerto Rico’s newly privatized grid fails.

It’s been said many times that there’s no such thing as a natural disaster these days. With all of our technology, we’re capable of building resilient infrastructure, moving people out of harm’s way, and engaging in herculean rescue efforts. As a rule, big disasters are made worse but inaction, incompetence, and corruption. At the end of the day, there’s more money to be made in the aftermath of a disaster than there is in preventing one. That means that when there was a push (eventually successful) to privatize Puerto Rico’s grid after the disaster of Hurricane Maria, it wasn’t hard to predict that the end result not be good for the people.

Now, under the advance of Hurricane Fiona, the entire island has apparently lost power.

A “total blackout” was reported on the island of Puerto Rico on Sunday as heavy rainfall and powerful winds pounded the island before Hurricane Fiona made landfall just before 4:00 pm local time.

Weather forecasters said the rainfall is likely to produce devastating landslides and severe flooding, with up to 25 inches (64 cm) expected in some areas. A Category 1 storm, with sustained winds of 85 mph, Fiona is nowhere near as powerful as Hurricane Maria which slammed the island in 2017, nearly five years to the day, as a Category 4 monster.

It wasn’t lost on many that the nation’s sole power utility company, LUMA—granted control of the territory’s electricity system in a 2020 privatization deal in the wake of Maria’s devastation—is the institution now in charge as the entire island has lost power in the face of Fiona.

In July, major protests were organized by Puerto Ricans opposed to LUMA—a joint venture by Canada-based ATCO and Houston-based Quanta Services. Citing increased outages, unreliable service, and higher bills, opponents demanded the 15-year contract with the company be canceled.

As Reuters reported in July, “Power rates have gone up five times since LUMA began operating Puerto Rico’s transmission and distribution system on June 1, 2020. The last rate hike, which took effect at the start of July, pushed rates up by 17.1%.”

Earlier this month, protests again were again on display in San Juan and elsewhere condemning LUMA.

In a statement on its website Sunday, LUMA said “full power restoration could take several days” and asked for “support and patience” from its customers.

Carmen Yulín Cruz, who was the progressive mayor of San Juan when Maria hit the island in 2017, offered a sobering comment in response to news of the blackout:

“Puerto Rico is 100% without electrical power,” she tweeted. “The cycle of death begins.”

“The cycle of death” is a good alternate name for disaster capitalism. I’m at a point where I am no longer willing to extend the benefit of the doubt to anyone in power. We know how this plays out. It’s been done over and over and over again all over the world. The people running our government – the leadership of both the Democrats and the Republicans, and the capitalist class they serve – know what they are doing. They know that things like privatizing Puerto Rico’s grid will result in high costs for unreliable results. They knew this would happen and they wanted it anyway. If someone wants to insist that they didn’t know, then they are so incompetent and out of touch that their ignorance is literally getting people killed.

Either way, things need to change.

Breadfruit to the rescue!

When it comes to adapting to/preparing for global warming, resilience is key. It’s absolutely worth finding ways to increase our resistance to climate disasters, but being able to recover quickly will matter much more.  There’s no roadmap for how the next few decades are going to go – we’ve got good general guesses, but those don’t allow us to predict what’s going to happen where. We can prepare for some things – ensure access to air conditioning and reliable potable water during heatwaves, for one example – but the ability to take an unexpected hit without collapsing is key.

Resilience, in my view, is best achieved through diversity. Diversity of strengths, diversity of thought, diversity of experience, diversity of species – I make no secret of my interest in ecology, or of my belief that we should see ourselves as part of the ecosystems around us. In ecosystems, biodiversity is key to resilience. The more species you have living in a given area, the less damage will be done by removing any one of those species. There are a lot of ways in which I think this concept applies fractally. At the level of a local community, a diversity of people makes it more likely that whatever problem arises, someone will have some idea of what to do about it. A diversity in diet – in types and sources of food – means that if one kind of crop fails, there are other kinds of food available. Zoom out to the national or global scale, and the same remains true.

That’s why it’s such a problem that so much of our population depends on so few species. Even leaving aside the disease and pest risks of monoculture farming, relying on a small number of crops means depending on a narrow range of growing conditions. At risk of stating the obvious, growing conditions are changing worldwide. I maintain that our first priority should be investing heavily in indoor food production, but in the interest of diversity and resilience, I think there’s real value in exploring other options.

Enter the breadfruit.

While researchers predict that climate change will have an adverse effect on most staple crops, including rice, corn and soybeans, a new Northwestern University study finds that breadfruit — a starchy tree fruit native to the Pacific islands — will be relatively unaffected.

Because breadfruit is resilient to predicted climate change and particularly well-suited to growing in areas that experience high levels of food insecurity, the Northwestern team believes breadfruit could be part of the solution to the worsening global hunger crisis.

The study was published today (Aug. 17) in the journal PLOS Climate.

“Breadfruit is a neglected and underutilized species that happens to be relatively resilient in our climate change projections,” said Northwestern’s Daniel Horton, a senior author on the study. “This is good news because several other staples that we rely on are not so resilient. In really hot conditions, some of those staple crops struggle and yields decrease. As we implement strategies to adapt to climate change, breadfruit should be considered in food security adaptation strategies.”

[…]

Despite having “fruit” in its name, breadfruit is starchy and seedless, playing a culinary role more like a potato. Closely related to jackfruit, the nutrient-rich food is high in fiber, vitamins and minerals. In tropical parts of the world, people have been eating breadfruit for thousands of years — whether steamed, roasted, fried or fermented. Breadfruit also can be turned into flour, in order to lengthen its shelf life and be exported.

“Breadfruit trees can live for decades and provide a large amount of fruits each year,” said Zerega, a conservation scientist with the Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action at the Chicago Botanic Garden. “In some cultures, there is a tradition to plant a breadfruit tree when a child is born to ensure the child will have food for the rest of their life.”

This sounds like something worth looking into, doesn’t it? As ever, this needs to come with systemic economic and political change – there’s no point to  increasing consumption of breadfruit if it’s just rich countries buying it from the people who currently rely on it, and forcing those people to then buy food on the international market. Fortunately, it seems likely that the number of places capable of growing breadfruit will go up as the temperature rises, particularly compared to current staples like wheat.

To conduct the study, the researchers first determined the climate conditions required to cultivate breadfruit. Then, they looked at how these conditions are predicted to change in the future (between the years 2060 and 2080). For future climate projections, they looked at two scenarios: an unlikely scenario that reflects high greenhouse-gas emissions and a more likely scenario in which emissions stabilize.

I love the optimism of their likely/unlikely labeling. I hope history proves them right about that.

In both scenarios, areas suitable for breadfruit cultivation remained mostly unaffected. In the tropics and subtropics, the suitable area for growing breadfruit decreased by a modest 4.4 to 4.5%. The researchers also found suitable territory where growing breadfruit trees could expand — particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where breadfruit trees are not traditionally grown but could provide an important and stable source of food.

“Despite the fact that climate will drastically change in the tropics, climate is not projected to move outside the window where breadfruit is comfortable,” Yang said. “From a climate perspective, we can already grow breadfruit in sub-Saharan Africa. There is a huge swath of Africa, where breadfruit can grow to various degrees. It just has not been broadly introduced there yet. And, luckily enough, most varieties of breadfruit are seedless and have little-to-no likelihood of becoming invasive.”

According to Zerega, once established, a breadfruit tree can withstand heat and drought much longer than other staple crops. But the benefits don’t end there. Because it’s a perennial crop, it also requires less energy input (including water and fertilizer) than crops that need to be replanted every year, and, like other trees, it sequesters carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over the tree’s lifetime.

“A lot of places where breadfruit can grow have high levels of food insecurity,” Yang said. “Oftentimes, they combat food insecurity by importing staple crops like wheat or rice, and that comes with a high environmental cost and carbon footprint. With breadfruit, however, these communities can produce food more locally.”

This brings us back to the need for systemic change. There’s a long history of rich nations using their wealth and power to undermine efforts at self-sufficiency in poor nations. Forcing a country to remain dependent on imports means that they have to put all their resources into generating cash crops to sell on the international market. That benefits capitalists, but it’s terrible for the kind of resilience we need. This is yet another example where we have what looks to be a good solution to part of the climate problem, but it’s unlikely to be implemented in any useful capacity without revolutionary political change.

It’s also worth underlining that there’s very little chance of the plant becoming invasive if grown in new locations. I’ve talked before about the damage that invasive species can do, and now is not the time to be adding more burdens to already-crumbling ecosystems.

The scale of change that we need is daunting, to say the least. I don’t think humanity has ever undertaken a task of this size and complexity. The upside is that “humanity” is also big and complex, and we’ve learned how break down big problems into more manageable parts. For climate change, one of those parts is changing our food system. Some of that change will just be differences in proportion – maybe we’ll have less wheat and corn, and more rice breadfruit, for example. I find it helps to remember that there are thousands of teams like the one behind this breadfruit research. More than that, there are millions of people not just doing research, but also taking direct action, and working out how to do more.

I no longer think climate change is just the result of all of us being collectively irresponsible – that would ignore how power works, and how our system is designed. That said, we are collectively living through it. You are not alone, and even if it’s not your day, your week, your month, or even your year, there are countless others out there working.

To grow breadfruit.

The image shows two breadfruits close to the camera. They’re green, oblong, and seem to be covered in small scales. The leaves behind them are very big, and toothed. Other breadfruits can be seen out of focus in the background.

If you like the content of this blog, please share it around. If you like the blog and you have the means, please consider joining my lovely patrons in paying for the work that goes into it. Due to my immigration status, I’m currently prohibited from conventional wage labor, so for the next couple years at least this is going to be my only source of income. You can sign up for as little as $1 per month (though more is obviously welcome), to help us make ends meet – every little bit counts!

It’s a video about Paw Patrol. How dark could it get?

In discussions surrounding the recent death of Queen Elizabeth the Second, there were a number of criticisms raised. One of them was that she acted as a powerful propagandist for the British Empire, and as that faded, the Commonwealth. No matter what the government of the UK did, she was the face of the country – a kindly, dignified lady that was treated almost as a papal figure by some. I suppose that’s fitting, given that she was the head of the Church of England. Even if there was nothing to criticize in her own actions, the role she played in putting a friendly face on a not-so-friendly country is worth some discussion, at least.

Likewise, it’s important to discuss the role that dogs play in putting a friendly face on the police. How’s that for a transition? Thematically consistent? I’ll leave that up to you.

I’ve heard of Paw Patrol once or twice over the years, but I never cared enough to look into it. I knew it was some show involving dogs acting like cops, I think? Regardless, nothing could have prepared me for the reality. This video is apparently part of an established tradition of thought-pieces that take this cartoon for children very seriously. More than that, it joins the chorus of voices calling this show downright sinister.

I suppose it might be more accurate to say that it’s part of a sinister societal pattern of media portraying police as hyper-competent heroes, to cover up the horrific reality. This video touches on that aspect of the show, but it also delves into that same reality. Thankfully, the video does not show pictures of the injuries inflicted by police dogs, but the list of described injuries, that include amputations and other life-changing injuries. And for all we talk about the hundreds of police shootings in the United States, police dogs send thousands of people to emergency rooms every year, and you’d better believe they’re disproportionately non-white, and poor.

Maybe things have changed since I left – is adequate medical treatment still out of reach for poor people in the U.S.?

Paw Patrol seems to be an absolutely terrible toy commercial disguised as an even worse show. From what I can tell, it’s worse than the original Transformers or He-Man stuff, but at least those weren’t putting a cutesy face on systemic racism and bloody horror.

 

ADHD and the daily struggle to make my brain do what I want it to (spoilers for Everything Everywhere All At Once)

This tweet fired a couple neurons for me that made me realize something new about the movie Everything Everywhere All At Once. I’m going to talk about a central part of how the story works, so if you haven’t seen the movie, please watch it before continuing (unless you’re at all vulnerable to photosensitive seizures, because this movie has a lot of strobe effects throughout). Maybe a couple of entirely hypothetical people could watch it with a visiting relative! Seriously – don’t read this blog post if you haven’t seen the movie, and you’re going to at any point. It’s an emotional rollercoaster that you won’t regret, and I don’t want to take away from that.

[Read more…]

Tegan Tuesday: “Smart” devices are giving corporations the ability to surveil you and your family 24/7

Digital security is an actual nightmare. We are surrounded by internet-capable technology at all times. Even if you personally do not have a smart watch, a smart phone, GoogleGlass, a car run through a computer, a smart doorbell, a smart washer, a smart fridge, a smart printer, a smart tv, a smart thermostat… the chances are incredibly high that your neighbor does.

And every single one of them is tracking you.

How could advertisers know what to sell you if it didn’t know that you mentioned ‘oreos’ in a conversation just seconds ago? What makes it even more frustrating is that this kind of technology is useful.

A woman I know with mobility issues and extreme temperature regulation problems has a smart thermostat because she can adjust it from her phone; an obviously helpful aspect for someone who’s bed-bound and having temperature problems. What is less helpful is the built-in feature where the power company can override any of her settings and decide FOR HER what temperature her house should be. Another woman I know has her smart watch connected to her pacemaker, all the better to moniter her health. Many of the technologies in my earlier list have equally helpful aspects to them. But just as people with sleep apnea have their CPAP machines locked or taken away from a perceived ‘lack of compliance’, each of these life-saving technologies are primarily being used to erode personal liberty and privacy.

What is honestly even more frustrating than this kind of monitoring is how easy they are to hack. There are countless stories of baby monitors being hacked, not to mention cars, smart tvs, and smart fridges. Each one of these systems, logged into your personal network, is a door to your personal data that could be used in a myriad of ways. Some of the reasons for this is that tech companies often don’t bother putting any effort into dealing with security. How many of us have gotten letters or emails informing us that Macy’s, or WalMart had a security breach and “your credit card information may be among those affected”? But with the prevalence of technology in every aspect of life, that risk is both compounded, and an expected part of life.

Ah well. We are adults. We can make the call about what is an acceptable invasion of privacy for improved ease of living or comfort. What then about the increasing amount of technology on children? We know the effects of long-term surveillance on developing minds: extremely negative. There have been discussions of the the impact of Elf on the Shelf (and it’s 24/7 surveillance of the child) for nearly a decade.

This was about the status of the interaction of life and technology up until 2020. Then the pandemic and its resulting lockdowns began. Jobs and schools alike went remote. Workers were observed at all times (Fun fact: my admin job in 2009 put surveillance software on my computer, so my boss could observe every action, every mouse movement, every keyboard entry. My boss could also override my own actions on my computer. I put in my two weeks that day. But how easy is it to find that type of job without it now?) But of course the mandatory laptops and tablets provided to students are monitoring their every move, too. In the case discussed above, think about the long-term implications of your child accidentally uploading child pornography just because their phone put their (fully clothed) selfie on the cloud or the school district’s network? This is a problem with far-reaching implications and I Want It Gone. The reckless and unrelenting monitoring of private information needs to stop.

Which brings me to the spot of good news: remote test proctoring software has been ruled a violation of constitutional rights. Cleveland State University, much like every other university on the planet, used a third-party monitoring program to assess whether students taking remote exams were cheating (My opinions about the over-reliance on exams and a pathological fear of ‘cheating’ is a different story). But a student went to court claiming that the proctoring software, which scanned his room and stored that information, was a violation of his privacy. The judge agreed! This type of monitoring is a violation of the Fourth Amendment right protecting citizens against unreasonable searches and seizures. Which is absolutely wonderful news! Now to get from Stage: ‘It’s Illegal’, to Stage: ‘It’s Not Used.’

This is a long fight ahead, since laws always lag behind technology by at least a decade. But it’s a start.

If you like the content of this blog, please share it around. If you like the blog and you have the means, please consider joining my lovely patrons in paying for the work that goes into it. Due to my immigration status, I’m currently prohibited from conventional wage labor, so for the next couple years at least this is going to be my only source of income. You can sign up for as little as $1 per month (though more is obviously welcome), to help us make ends meet – every little bit counts!

Video: Shaun’s take on the cost of the monarchy

This is an old video, but given current events, I think it’s worth sharing. Part of that is because the crown of the UK just changed hands (heads?), and a lot of people are voicing their opinions about the institution, and their justifications for keeping the House of Windsor in their palaces and finery. I also think it’s relevant because  a couple people have been arrested for voicing their opposition to hereditary monarchies. Aside from one or two folks literally making the case for the Divine Right of Kings, mostly the arguments I’ve seen have been about how much money the Crown makes for the UK.