East coast & exit polls »« Here we go! All your polls belong to me

I am uneasy about tonight

Ed’s prediction at Dispatches From the Culture Wars (His reasoning is solid and my own reality-based call would be pretty much identical).

This is it, what’s your call? Popular tally, specific states, down ballot races — I might even have a godless prize[s] for anyone who gets scary close.

I am uneasy down in my gut before every election, at least since I started caring about them around ten years ago, this one especially.  Obama has only the slimmest of leads, a point or two at best in half a dozen key states. Just a tiny number of voters suppressed by GOP shenanigans and a few nut jobs fired up by racism and other forms of ignorance, would cause this election to break Romney’s way. That’s my gut, but as data driven people, we have to go where the data leads. Nate Silver has a promising prognostication there:

538.com– Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one. …

In order for Mr. Romney to win the Electoral College, a large number of polls, across these states and others, would have to be in error, perhaps because they overestimated Democratic turnout. It’s this possibility, more than the chance of a successful hail-mary in a state like Pennsylvania, that accounts for most of Mr. Romney’s remaining chances of winning the Electoral College.

I remember when Nate used a Daily Kos screen name based on a hot pepper, how times have changed. He called two elections very closely, 2008 and 2010, if he gets this one right he will be able to write his own ticket on any campaign or news site in America. In short, Nate’s got a lot on the line here, so there’s no reason to think he’s spinning or engaging in wishful thinking in anyway.

Bottom line: Nate Silver tweaked his models overnight with the latest polling data. Today he gives Obama a 91.6% chance of winning a second term. We’ll see. Workout Girl will be helping me keep track of the results tonight. If it starts going downhill, I’ll probably just stop blogging and bury my tearful face in her washboard abs and not come out until Thursday.

Comments

  1. Nick Gotts (formerly KG) says

    I think the biggest unknown is the extent to which Republican attempts to prevent people voting, and possibly to cheat outright – particularly in Ohio, where there are very dodgy voting machines – will succeed.

  2. embraceyourinnercrone says

    My concern is what’s going to happen with supposedly solidly blue states that have massive problems right now. There are some towns on the New Jersey coast and parts of Staten Island and Queens that have no power, not enough gas, no working ATMs, town and city buildings uninhabitable. Some peoples normal polling places are not available anymore, and even if information is put out on TV or the internet about alternative polling places, if you have no power and live in a high rise how are you going to get that information.

    This part is off topic and sorry for spamming your post but Occupy Sandy(organized by Occupy/Interoccupy.net has a boots on the ground organization that is getting needed supplies to people in these areas

    http://interoccupy.net/occupysandy

    URGENT SUPPLIES NEEDED
    Blankets Candles Flashlights Lights Water Food Batteries Diapers and Wipes Gloves and Masks Rubber boots Shovels Cleaning supplies and bleach Trash bags Serving dishes and utensils Anything that produces heat Winter wear (jackets, hats, gloves, warm stuff)

    There is also an Amazon gift registry you can donate from if you don’t live close enough to donate in person:

    http://www.amazon.com/registry/wedding/32TAA123PJR42

    Sorry for the post highjack.

  3. StevoR says

    Here are awhole long list of various predictions via Ed Brayton’s blog :

    http://freethoughtblogs.com/dispatches/2012/11/05/get-your-election-predictions-here/

    Mine is at #55 :

    My election prediction For Whatever Little Its Worth :

    Obama wins the electoral college and many (most?) of the swing states incl. Ohio.

    Romney wins just a few of the other swing states and, narrowly, wins the popular vote. 51-to-49% or so.

    So we see a reverse of the Bush-Gore 200 election outcome.

    I hope I’m right at least about who gets to be POTUS.

  4. says

    Calling the 6 Michigan ballot proposals:

    1 – passes by a decent margin. Too many people on both sides of the aisle dislike the Emergency Manager law. Won’t they be surprised to find out in a year or two that there’s still an older EM law on the books.

    2 – fails, but by a very close margin, triggering a recount or other delay in announcing the results.

    3 – fails, but as much from people not wanting it to amend the MI constitution as from people who are ideologically opposed to similoar legislation.

    4 – fails by a good margin, mainly because people don’t understand it.

    5 – fails by a close margin, garnering votes mainly because it makes it harder to raise taxes

    6 – fails by a huge margin. Too many people know that this is a money grab by Marty Maroun, and are pissed about all the delays he’s paid for to prevent a new bridge from going in. And a large number of those people know that the bridge will be built regardless of how the vote goes.

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