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Feb 28 2012

Let’s all go to the lobby! Duel in Michigan between Mittens and Santorum


Mittens was for meddling in other party’s primaries before he was against it

Update: moments ago a Romney spokesman had an incoherent explanation for why Romney wasn’t being hypocritical in that video clip:

That was a totally different situation, that was when Mitt was a private sector businessman, before he started his political career. He was an unenrolled voter, and that meant he could go into either party primary [...] He never in any of the races where he was a candidate ever encouraged Democrats to go into a Republican primary and create mischief and that’s what Rick Santorum is doing.

There was a time when the Romney name in Michigan was akin to the Kennedy name in Massachusetts, well received, liked, even across otherwise contentious party lines. But that was before Mittens volunteered a big op-ed saying Detroit should go bankrupt and followed up with a flip-flopping rightward lurch that would leave Ronald Reagan breathless and sea sick. Now Romney is in real trouble in Michigan, and if he doesn’t win it running away it could spell more headaches for conservatives, and more golden opportunity for democrats, in the Republican primary battles that lay ahead. On the race itself, Nate Silver says it’s too close to call:

(538.com) — A second poll was then published, from Foster McCollum White Associates and Baydoun Consulting, which showed Mr. Romney with a narrow two-point lead. That was enough to put Mr. Romney back ahead in the forecast model — by the whopping margin of 0.7 percentage points. The forecast now gives Mr. Romney a 55 percent chance to win Michigan and Mr. Santorum a 45 percent chance.

That’s why Operation Hilarity could actually matter this time. Oppos always try to stir up trouble in primaries, usually by pushing a candidate perceived as too divisive or extreme to win the general and who will divide the base of that party. Typically it’s a pipe dream, and it might turn out to be this time too.

But circumstances in Michigan could hardly be better for such shenanigans. Santorum is considered unelectable in the general, a win or strong showing here would seriously undermine Romney and keep the GOP base divided. It would also give the former PA senator a huge momentum boost going into Super Tuesday early next month. What really makes it fly is the Michigan primary is open, democrats and indies can vote in it. In a razor-thin contest, if only a few thousands dems or indies step in and vote for Santorum, he could win or come very close, setting off the above scenario.

Il try to stay up  post results into the wee hours if necessary.

10 comments

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  1. 1
    jamessweet

    I have been vacillating a little bit on how well I went to see Santorum do in the primary. Some days I am like, “Fuck yeah, run Mr. Frothy you idiots! It will be total carnage!” Other days, I feel like the tiny risk of some sort of October surprise causing Santorum to actually become POTUS is just too dangerous to tolerate. (If Romney wins, I’ll be disappointed, but will go on with my life. If Santorum wins, I will seriously be looking for employment in the Netherlands.)

    One thing is for sure, though: The jig is just about up for the GOP. If we can just hang on through the next couple election cycles without letting the wingnuts do too much damage to the country, the GOP is going to come apart at the seams (a la the Dixiecrat debacle in the 60s) and there will be a real opportunity to get America back on a progressive tack.

  2. 2
    Gwynnyd

    I too am worried that somehow Frothy might manage to become POTUS. I have no faith in religious moderates doing the right thing and I’d rather not give them the option. Since my vote in the primary doesn’t count in any real sense, I’d rather toss it to Ron Paul, on the off chance that he sees his own surge and takes his marbles to form a third party. That would be a better outcome: split the whackaloon vote in November.

  3. 3
    The Lorax

    DO IT. Give Santorum ALL the votes! Call up Anonymous and the hoards at Pharyngula; they love altering polls.

    You’re right, we see a trend here of the GOP runners trying to out-Tea-Party the others; if we encourage this, then in a few months, the Republican debates will amount to:

    Newt: I promise a Jupiter colony in 5 years!
    Santorum: I am God.
    Romney: Hello. I am Mitt Romney. Maybe.
    Paul: I’m moderate! Why isn’t anyone paying attention to me?!

    Obama: *awesomeface*

  4. 4
    Stephen "DarkSyde" Andrew

    I can’t hold it against any one for not being able to stomach casting a Santorum vote for anything. But in this unusual case, if the polls are to be believed, it could Frothy over the top, and that’s a huge problem for Mittens and the GOP.

  5. 5
    otrame

    If the nightmare of Santorum becoming POTUS comes true, if enough people vote for him, I will know my country is dead.

    I love Wales.

  6. 6
    otrame

    BTW, does anyone think that if Mitt wins the primary, that there will be an impetus to create a third party? Sure, such a thing would hand Obama the election on a platter, but the type who would do it aren’t well known for dealing with reality anyway.

  7. 7
    jamessweet

    There have been some rumblings of that for sure. Hell, the Donald of all people said he was thinking of doing it.

    Yes, that would be a perfect outcome. I’d probably bet against it at this point, but it’s not at all out of the realm of possibility.

  8. 8
    Randomfactor

    My qualms about voting for Santorum would be that it IS 2012, and he DOES resemble Nehemiah Scudder…

    But yeah, The Donald would save us if Santorum were to ooze into the Republican nomination. I hope…

  9. 9
    tommypuckett

    Why would I want to go to the lobby for a snack? I’m not sure I understand the reference here. These guys are hardly refreshing treats, nor do they induce in me a desire to procure such.

  10. 10
    nemothederv

    I wonder how many of those who vote for Santorum are, in fact, Obama supporters plotting for Mittens to lose?
    Is there anyway to research that?

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