RFK Jr. is going to cause the death of us all

It should be no surprise that placing an anti-vaxxer and conspiracy nut in charge of the department of Health and Human Services, the cabinet office that oversees almost all the science and public health agencies in the US, was going to do serious harm. And sure enough, he is wreaking havoc.

One of the more disturbing things he has done is cancel a long-running diabetes study that was looking at the effectiveness of a medication known as metformin. The group that got this medication was compared with another group that got a placebo and a third group that made lifestyle changes to meet health goals, such as to exercise more and lose weight.

The study found that, in people with prediabetes, metformin lowered the risk of diabetes by roughly a third; the life-style intervention cut the risk by more than half. Both components were so successful that the trial was stopped early.

But the The Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study had planned to continue the study to explore other important questions, using the participants that had been enrolled in the earlier phase.

How long do the health benefits last? How do blood-sugar levels affect the body and the brain over time? For more than a quarter of a century, Nathan and his colleagues tracked thousands of patients—which was itself a feat of logistical and scientific endurance.(Many doctors struggle to get their patients to attend annual physicals, let alone engage them for a study of this duration.)

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Blog comments policy

At the beginning of every month, I will repost my comments policy for those who started visiting this site the previous month.

As long time readers know, I used to moderate the comments with a very light hand, assuming that mature adults would know how to behave in a public space. It took outright hate speech targeting marginalized groups to cause me to ban people, and that happened very rarely. But I got increasingly irritated by the tedious and hostile exchanges among a few commenters that tended to fill up the comment thread with repeated posts about petty or off-topic issues. We sometimes had absurdly repetitive exchanges seemingly based on the childish belief that having the last word means that you have won the argument or with increasingly angry posts sprinkled with puerile justifications like “They started it!”

So here is one rule: No one will be able to make more than three comments in response to any blog post. Violation of that rule will result in banning.

But I also want to address a couple of deeper concerns for which a solution cannot be quantified but will require me to exercise my judgment.

The main other issue is the hostility that is sometimes expressed, often triggered by the most trivial of things. An email sent to me privately by a long-time lurker brought home to me how people might be hesitant to join in the conversation here, even if they have something to say, out of fear that something that they write, however well-intentioned, will be seized upon and responded to in a hostile manner by some of the most egregious offenders.

It is well known that the comments sections on the internet can be a cesspool. I had hoped that the people who come to this site would be different, leading to more mature exchanges. But I was clearly too sanguine. People should remember that this is a blog, not a journal or magazine. There are no copy editors, proof readers, and fact checkers. In such a casual atmosphere, people (and that includes me) will often inadvertently be less than precise or accurate in what they say and people should respond appropriately. If the error is trivial but the meaning is clear, the error should be ignored. If the meaning is not clear, clarification can be politely asked for. If it is a genuine error, a correction can be politely made. This courteous behavior should be obvious but clearly it isn’t for some people. So here is another rule: If I think people are being consistently rude or condescending or insulting (and I do not mean just abusive language but also the tone), I will ban the person.

For me, and I suspect for the other bloggers on this network, the rewards of blogging lie in creating space for a community of people to exchange ideas and views on a variety of topics. But that is pleasurable only if people post comments that are polite and respectful towards others, even while disagreeing. Some time ago, I wrote a post that a good philosophy of life is “Don’t be a jerk”. That would be a good rule to keep in mind when posting comments as well. There is absolutely no call for anyone to be rude or sneering or condescending towards others. Almost all the commenters on this blog contribute positively and it is a pleasure to read their contributions and interact with them. It is a very few who think that a sneering, condescending, or abrasively argumentative tone is appropriate. My patience has been worn thin by some of their comments in the past. So here is the third rule: If I think, for any reason whatsoever, that someone is behaving like a jerk, I will ban them. I am in no mood to argue about this. I will not make any public announcement about who is banned. They will simply find that they can no longer post comments.

So I would suggest that in future commenters think carefully before they post anything, taking into account what they say and how often they say something. They should try to put themselves in the shoes of the person they are arguing with and think about how they might feel if their comment had been directed at them. They should also think about how their comments might look to others. It surprises me that people do not realize how badly this kind of behavior reflects on themselves.

Readers may have noticed that there are no ads on any of the blogs on this network. Nobody is making any money at all. In fact, it is a money sink and PZ Myers pays for the costs of the servers out of his Patreon account that you can contribute to if you would like to support the network. The bloggers here blog because they want to create spaces for conversations on issues that they care about. ‘Clicks’ have no monetary value. That means that I do not care how many people come to the site.

I realize that these guidelines are somewhat vague. So a good rule of thumb would be: If in doubt as to whether to post something because it might violate these boundaries, that is a good sign to not post it. I will be the sole judge of whether the boundary has been crossed.

I want to make it perfectly clear that I have zero tolerance for people who try to find ways to subvert the guidelines such as, for example, skirting the three comment limit by continuing it on another thread. I also reserve the right to make exceptions to the rules at any time, if I feel it is warranted. These decisions will be solely mine and will be final. There will be no discussion, debate, or appeal. If anyone objects because they think that I am being arbitrary, they are of course free to leave and never return.

Aircraft carriers can swerve?

It is much harder to steer a boat than it is a land vehicle. The presence of ground-based friction enables rapid changes in direction on land but that is absent in water. The bigger the boat is, the harder it is to change its direction of motion. I have sometimes compared large institutions to aircraft carriers, using that as a metaphor for how some of them change direction very slowly.

So I was surprised to read this report of an aircraft carrier engaging in zig-zag motion to escape hostile fire, with the resulting swerving being sufficient to result in a jet fighter falling into the sea.

US sailors had to leap for their lives when a fighter jet fell off a navy aircraft carrier that was reportedly making evasive maneuvers to avoid Houthi militant fire in the Red Sea on Monday.

The F/A-18 fighter Super Hornet jet, along with the vehicle towing it into place on the deck of the USS Harry S Truman, rolled right out of the hangar and into the water, the navy said.

Unnamed US officials indicated to CNN that the ship was swerving to avoid incoming fire from Yemen’s Houthi rebel force. Carriers make a zigzag maneuver when attempting to evade missile fire, causing them to list to one side.

It looks like I will need to find a new metaphor for large, slowly changing institutions.

The article seems to suggest that this type of swerving of aircraft carriers is not uncommon, which makes me wonder why there was no system in place to avoid this kind of catastrophe. It is likely because those responsible for making sure the plane was secured properly were DEI hires or transgender, because members of those two groups are the cause of all the ills that beset this country.

Liberals win in Canada election

As expected, the Liberals have won in Canada’s general elections, winning 168 ridings, just short of the 172 needed to get an absolute majorities. Hence they will need the support of smaller parties to govern. Those parties got 31 seats.

The Conservatives won just 144 seats, more than they had in the outgoing parliament but still a huge disappointment since in January of this year they were expected to win big. But that was before Trump decided to make inflammatory and demeaning statements about Canada. Not only did they lose, their leader Paul Poilievre lost the own seat, one that he had held since 2004. The New Democratic Party faired very poorly and their leader Jagmeet Singh also lost his seat.

Until the end of 2024, internal discussions within the Liberal party were grim: under their most optimistic scenarios, they could only hope of holding the Conservatives to a minority government. Outright victory was nowhere on the party’s radar.
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Trump’s threats to annex the country to make it the 51st state, his belittling of Trudeau as “governor” and threats of economic coercion have all contributed to a sharp feeling of anger and betrayal towards Canada’s southern neighbour.

“The shift in polls was absolutely without precedent,” said David Coletto, the head of the polling firm Abacus. “But to see the honeymoon that followed – and the way that support held, is also unprecedented. I can’t think of other jurisdictions around the world where we’ve seen this complete reset. And this turns on two factors: how unpopular Justin Trudeau was, and how much of a threat and gamechanger Donald Trump has meant to Canada.”

Carney’s come-from-behind win was fueled by by his strong stance against Trump’s arrogant and condescending attitude towards Canada. The UK’s Keir Starmer and other world leaders should take note.

Carney should send Trump a thank you card.

Welcome to America? Not so much

David Lindorff has done many trips abroad to Asia and Europe and describes his experience on returning to the US after having been in Europe since October 1, 2024. He says that these returns are always unpleasant, with a long flight followed by long lines at US immigration with other grumpy fliers anxious to get to a comfortable bed.

But this time it was different. The arrival hall at Newark was nearly empty and there were no lines at any of the three sections for US passport holders, permanent resident green card holders, or other foreign passport holders. Of course, while highly unusual, this may have been partly due to a statistical fluke. Sometimes several planes arrive close together creating massive crowds, at other times just a single plane may arrive, though that is unlikely at a major airport like Newark. But he says that the statistics show that the number of people coming to the US is dropping due to worldwide coverage of the alarming way that people are being treated by ICE at US entry ports.
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UK’s Keir Starmer tries to placate Trump

Reports are emerging that the UK government, responding to repeated requests from Trump, is putting pressure on the organization that runs the British Open golf championship to assign the 2028 tournament to Trump’s golf course in Scotland.

One source described the talks as direct lobbying from the government, although others said officials had asked about hypothetical problems with the idea, rather than insisting that it happen.

One person with knowledge of the discussions said: “The government is doing everything it can to get close to Trump. One concrete thing is that the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) have been involved in pushing for the Open to return to Trump-owned Turnberry.”

Both the DCMS and Trump Turnberry declined to comment.

Two other people briefed on conversations between the US president and Keir Starmer said Trump had asked the prime minister multiple times about hosting the Open at Turnberry, which the Trump Organization has owned since 2014.
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Hosting the Open could provide a welcome financial boost for SLC Turnberry, the course’s operating company, which is run by the president’s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. Last year the company lost £1.7m, having made £571,000 in the previous year – its only profit in 10 years.

Trump of course has no shame in using his office to advance his personal business nterests.

The UK has a long, long history of their governments being servile to the US, and this is even when they have Labour governments like they have now. This is not as big a deal as Tony Blair being obscenely obsequious to George W. Bush and giving him cover for the invasion of Iraq. But it does indicate a subservient attitude that seeks to ingratiate themselves with US presidents.

It is not clear that they get anything worthwhile in return for their cravenness. Trump seems to only respect governments that respond with firmness, like China and Russia. Trying to please him only makes him worse.

Here come the quackpots

Remember when, during the Covid-19 epidemic, Trump startled people in the medical community by suggesting that ingesting disinfectants could kill the virus? This was even more horrifying than his suggestions of using Ivermectin (the horse dewormer) and laser light as cures. It was not clear at that time where he got this crackpot idea but since he is full of crackpot ideas, people presumably did not think it worth tracking down the source.

But now it appears we know. The idea of using bleach was suggested by someone named Andreas Kalcker who markets chlorine dioxide, described as “a potentially life-threatening form of industrial bleach that is claimed without evidence to be a cure for cancer, Covid and autism.”

Andreas Kalcker is among 50 listed speakers at the “Truth Seekers Conference”, a two-day event opening on Thursday at the US president’s resort, Trump National Doral Miami. The event features several anti-vaxxers and other conspiracy theorists who have been brought together by the far-right commentator Charlie Ward.

Kalcker, a German national thought to be living in Switzerland, markets the bleach under the brand name “CDS”, for chlorine dioxide solution. His online brochures claim that the toxic chemical, which he admits is a disinfectant, can “eliminate pathogens” that cause disease.

He boasts it is “possibly the greatest medical discovery of the last 100 years”.

Government health authorities in the US and Spain have denounced the remedy as fraudulent, saying it is no different from drinking bleach. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has warned that it can cause serious and even life-threatening side-effects, including dehydration, diarrhoea and kidney injury.

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Trump becoming increasingly pathetic

We are witnessing the transition from Trump being bold and bombastic to becoming weak and pathetic as his aggressive actions are turning out to be ineffective, resulting in him having to lie and plead.

We see that most clearly in his actions with China. He must have thought that the high tariffs he slapped on imports from that country would swiftly cause them to buckle. But they have hung tough and reciprocated with high tariffs of their own and the stock markets cratered. So now he is reduced to essentially pleading with them to call him and promising them that he will be “very nice” to them if they call. He claims that the two countries have been in talks but the Chinese dismissed that.
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George Santos sentenced to 87 months in prison

One of the most spectacular cases of fraud by a member of the US Congress came to an end today when George Santos was sentenced to 87 months in prison for all the crimes he had committed. The brazenness of both his frauds and the way he responded when he was found out were truly breathtaking. The judge was not convinced by his last-minute expressions of contrition.

He lied extensively about his life story both before and after entering the US Congress, where he was the first openly LGBTQ+ Republican elected to the body. He was ultimately convicted of defrauding donors.
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He admitted to deceiving donors and stealing the identities of nearly a dozen people, including his family members, to fund his winning campaign. He also made up strings of fantastical stories about his life, identity and experiences.

During his court case he frequently held press gatherings and mocked the media and his detractors, saying he was being smeared.

Santos was shown to have spent donor money on vacations, luxury goods, Botox treatment and the website OnlyFans.
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Santos’s sentencing was not without controversy. Before his Friday court appearance, he referred to himself as a “scapegoat” on social media, in reference to prosecutors accusing him of organizing the fraudulent conspiracy.

Santos also alleged that the justice department was a “cabal of pedophiles”, in posts made to X. Prosecutors highlighted Santos’s comments in a filing after Santos’s defense team requested a two-year prison sentence.
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As part of the plea agreement, Santos was forced to pay a restitution of $373,749.97 and forfeiture of $205,002.97.

A list of his lies is something to behold. And yet, for a while, his Republican colleagues in Congress were willing stand by him until the scandal got so bad that they booted him out. It was a local newspaper the North Shore Leader that first accused him of fabricating his resume shortly before his election but the story did not gain traction in the major media.

Since he was convicted in federal court, he could appeal to Trump to pardon him. It would not be at all surprising to me if Trump did that.