Nothing is going right for Trump in the three conflicts in which the US is directly or indirectly involved, in Iran, Yemen, and Ukraine. He is desperate for a foreign policy win that he can brag about before the elections, given that he and the Republicans are getting hammered on the economy.

In Iran, the US is in a stalemate (despite occasional flareups of the conflict), with the Iranians unwilling to accept terms that are acceptable to the US and the US not having the offensive or defensive military capabilities to force them to do so. Short of sending in ground troops, a fateful Rubicon if there ever was one, he seems to have no cards left to play. Of course, he could always use nuclear weapons and with him one can never rule out the unthinkable, because he and his advisors and Republicans in general have long since left the city of the sane.

In Yemen, there seemed to be a sort-of deal between Ansar Allah (aka Houthis) and the US that gave the former some control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in Red Sea and in return they were allowing some ships to pass through but that seems to risk breaking down with an exchange of missile attacks between Ansar All and Saudi Arabia, with Riyadh airport suffering serious damage.

The Saudi-led coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said a projectile struck a passenger terminal at the international airport in Riyadh on Sunday, a day after a missile struck the same terminal and killed 12 people.

There were no immediate details about the latest strike on the King Khalid International Airport complex for terminals 3 and 4 for domestic flights. Saturday’s missile attack was the deadliest in a Gulf Arab nation since the Iran war began, with another 300 people wounded, some critically. The airport was still closed Sunday.

The Saudis seem to be short of weaponry too and Trump is said to be considering coming to their aid, but that carries its own risks.

The sharp escalation in the new front in that war threatens to draw in greater U.S. military involvement, as President Donald Trump has said he is weighing joining the fight against the Houthis. There was no immediate White House comment Sunday.
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Trump on Saturday also said he planned to speak with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

A U.S. intervention could prompt the Houthis to halt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea off Yemen and further restrict the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf. The rebels seized key areas along the strait last month and the Saudi-led coalition has been trying to seize them back.

But what can Trump do? Bomb Houthi sites on behalf of the Saudis, which would undoubtedly result in Ansar Allah attacking shipping in the Red Sea? Send defensive weaponry to protect vulnerable Saudi sites? The US can barely defend its own bases in the region already, let alone assist the Saudis. Furthermore, any such moves would result in further shipping disruptions and send gas prices, already high, through the roof just before the miid-terms.

To try and get a ‘win’, Trump seems to have used the one lever that he thinks he has and that is his relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin and decided to throw Ukraine under the bus, saying that he has agreed to a partial cease-fire deal with Putin. You would think that the leader of the country in which that war is being fought would have been involved in making this deal but Volodymyr Zelensky seems to have been totally blindsided.

Donald Trump has announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, apparently without consulting Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said the deal to stop long-range attacks was “news to me”.

In a social media post, the US president claimed the two sides had reached an agreement. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” he wrote on Truth Social.

He offered no further details. Zelenskyy said he was surprised by the announcement but would agree to it if Vladimir Putin did the same. “If President Trump negotiated it with Putin – please tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready and we will accept it,” the Ukrainian president told the Axios website.

Earlier, Zelenskyy rebuffed Trump’s demand made on Saturday that Kyiv stop bombing Russian oil refineries. Zelenskyy said Moscow had to first halt its own “brutal” attacks on his country’s energy infrastructure.

What seems to have precipitated Trump’s sudden actions is worry about high gas prices and the effect that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries has on them. He has made a deal with Russia to import diesel fuel, which required the lifting of sanctions, a move which angered Zelensky.

The fast-moving row between Washington and Kyiv began on Friday when Trump announced he was lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports. He said the move would reduce global and domestic fuel prices before next month’s US midterm elections.

A furious Zelenskyy called the decision “weak” and said it would generate “billions” in extra revenue for Putin, enabling him to wage war “even more intensely”. An equally irate Trump said Zelenskyy should “damn well stop” hitting Russian refineries. Ukraine needed a “new leader”, he said on Saturday.

Trump clearly wants Zelensky gone and replaced by someone who would be more willing to capitulate. He berates him repeatedly and publicly and demands that he calls elections.

The head of Ukraine’s foreign affairs committee, Oleksandr Merezhko, said Trump’s “bullying” demand for Zelenskyy to quit had strengthened him at home “paradoxically”, after recent damaging corruption scandals. “Putin’s plan is to decapitate Zelenskyy and remove him as a wartime leader. Trump is siding with Putin,” Merezhko said.

The leaders of Iran, Ansar Allah, and Russia can all see the writing on the wall, that the US military is stretched thin, that Trump is getting hammered domestically and has undermined traditional allies who could give him support, and is now desperate, and that they can put the squeeze on him, even if they are not coordinating their actions. Putin has clearly done so and won a major concession.