Cautious optimism about the pandemic

There is a glimmer of light in the pandemic darkness. The number of hospitalizations has been dropping and is close to half of what it was at its peak in early January. The number of deaths is also dropping.

But the current figures are still well above the previous peak values in the spring and summer of 2020.

We should also be concerned that people will take this news as license to let their guard down and that could cause yet another spike, which is what happened after numbers came down last summer.


  1. John Morales says

    We should also be concerned that people will take this news as license to let their guard down

    Indeed. The story of developed economies that failed to contain it is the story of premature relaxation.

  2. says

    John Morales (#1) --

    Indeed. The story of developed economies that failed to contain it is the story of premature relaxation.

    Not premature relaxation. Obsession with “reopening” and “economic growth”. Three weeks of worldwide shutdown and EVERYONE staying put (all international borders closed and none of the repatriations that spread it around), and this would be over already.

  3. birgerjohansson says

    In my county in North Sweden, the number of cases doubled in a week because of cluster spreading at a big building site. The managers had taken measures to prevent spreading keeping people distanced but even with face masks, working in proximity to others eventually leads to infection. There were even two different variants of the virus spreading at the site.
    Lesson: the virus will find any flaw in the defences.

  4. jrkrideau says

    premature relaxation

    Our idiot Premier has lifted the lock-down on three public health areas in the province yesterday. The three Medical Officers of Health are going crazy. The three areas are doing fine but the MOHs are terrified of tourists from the rest of the province arriving with SARS-CoV-2 .

    At least two of them are pointing out to the public that businesses are quite within their rights to demand proof of residence and refuse service to anyone from outside the public health area. They have even checked with the Ontario Human Rights Commission on that. These doctors are p*&$L~*&-ed!

    Yesterday there was a secondhand report of a tour bus from Toronto at one of the local restaurants and the owner of a local hairdresser/spa business on CBC radio reported refusing appointments from Toronto though, as he said, it was easy as he was fully booked anyway.

    I am giving another thought to my idea of ringing Metro Toronto with razor-wire and machine gun emplacements.

  5. jenorafeuer says

    Others have noted that, really, the current drop in cases isn’t so much a ‘things are getting better’ as it is a ‘regression to the mean’… people were doing way too many family visits and other spreader events for Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year’s, and lately we’ve finally seen the end of the fallout from that.

    Worry about another spike of cases in two weeks, what with Valentine’s Day this weekend.

    Speaking as someone inside Metro Toronto, that wouldn’t bother me any, because I haven’t left the city limits since work-from-home started last March, and for that matter I can count the number of times I went somewhere not within walking distance on my hands. In fact, I think one hand. (Then again, I have a slightly broader definition of what counts as ‘walking distance’ than many. One of the side effects of not owning a car, and living within a moderate density part of town.)

  6. Katydid says

    The organization I work for decided to just deny that there’s a problem. The people with private office with doors that close see no problem with the rank-and-file working in open offices with just a couple of feet separating them. If anyone gets COVID, it’s their own fault for not taking proper precautions and not keeping their own desk sanitized well enough. After all, the people with offices have sent emails on this very topic!

    This is one reason why the cases are still so high.

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