UPDATE: Decision Desk HQ is one of the many news sites that follow the elections with their own analysts and call state results. They are the first to state that they think Joe Biden is the president.
Decision Desk HQ projects that @JoeBiden has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.
Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America.
Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST
All Results: https://t.co/BgcQsEyt3j
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2020
While I am repeating their claim, it should be treated with great caution because the AP, the one that I most rely on, has made no such call, and neither have Fox News, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, the New York Times, or the Washington Post.]
Waking up in the morning these days is an exercise in anticipation and dread. Being on the west coast, I know that a lot of stuff has already happened by the time I wake up so I turn on the news with some degree of apprehension.
I went to bed Tuesday night fearing that I would wake up on Wednesday to the news that Trump had won the election. But Wednesday morning produced no such news which was a relief, though the election was still not called. The fact that Arizona (which went for Trump in 2016) had been awarded by AP to Biden during the night meant that he had 264 electoral votes and needed only Nevada, where he was leading and which Democrats had won in 2016, to get to the target of 270 EVs.
Nothing really changed during the day and I went to bed Wednesday night more hopeful than the previous night because there were some positive signs for Joe Biden but Thursday morning had nothing different from Wednesday night. Nothing definitive occurred during the day either and by Thursday evening, Biden was still behind in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, though he was gaining in the first two states and was still leading in Nevada.
There were some worrying signs, though. The AP had called Arizona for Biden at 2:50am ET Wednesday morning but only Fox News had joined them in making that call and other outlets said that they were holding off. On Thursday, there were worrying reports that Biden’s lead there was narrowing. The AP said that they were monitoring the situation but did not revoke their call.
That brings us to now, Friday morning. North Carolina still has Trump leading and I expect him win it along with Alaska (which for some inexplicable reason has still not been called) which would give him 232 EVs. Then with Biden’s 253 EVs (excluding Arizona), that leaves 53 EVs to be decided between Arizona (11), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20), and Georgia (16).
The news headlines this morning said that Biden had taken the lead in Pennsylvania by just 9,000 votes and had a much narrower lead in Georgia by just 1,500 voters. His lead in Nevada has also increased. Winning Pennsylvania would put him over the top even if he lost Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. If Biden wins Nevada, then winning any of the remaining three would make him the president.
Meanwhile, winning Georgia and losing the other three would put us in the nightmare scenario of a tie at 269-269. If you already thought the US system for electing a president was crazy, your mind would explode at all the scenarios of what could happen in the event of a tie.
Today we should finally see the end to this dragged out process and I can finally go to sleep without a cloud of uncertainty hanging over me.