The UK election to the European parliament on Thursday, May 23 is being viewed as a gauge to determine the current sentiment on Brexit. But interpreting the results is going to be problematic since the whole process is a shambles. The latest is that the talks between the Conservative and Labour parties in the hope of arriving at deal they can agree on have broken down. Not that there was much hope of success anyway. Given that neither party speaks with a unified voice on this highly divisive issue, a consensus solution emerging would have been nothing short of a miracle.
Turnout in the EU elections is usually low (in 2014 it was just 36%) which shows that it is not a major factor in people’s live. In low turnout elections, passion and anger tend to be the drivers that make people take the trouble to go out to vote and in this case, I suspect that the Leavers have the edge since they are the one who are likely to be angry that the Brexit they voted for three years ago has still not come to fruition. Furthermore, they have a clear choice of voting: the Brexit party or Ukip. Hence it should not be surprising to see that the Brexit party is leading in the polls.
The Remainers, on the other hand, have less to be angry about since they want the status quo and the status quo is being maintained. Also the two major parties are split on this issue and the Labour party’s tortured stance that seeks to appeal to both Remainers and Leavers is hardly inspiring. It would not surprise me to see the clearly Leave parties and the clearly Remain parties such as the Liberal Democrats and the smaller parties.do really well and the ambivalent Labour and Conservative parties to do really badly.
But the most likely result is that this election may end up providing no clear way forward and the UK will keep lurching erratically like a drunk who does not know where he is or where he is going,.
Faux journalist Jonathan Pie handicaps the EU elections in his own distinctive style (Language advisory)